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OK, so here we go!

#BrexitDiagram Series 4, V1.0.0

The first one since #GE19 was called
Headline figures:
60% - Brexit with a Deal 31 Jan
16% - Stalemate
24% - 2nd Referendum
There is a full explanation of the new Series 4 here:
jonworth.eu/brexitdiagram-…

But I will summarise in this thread
NOTE I am not a pollster. That is what made this new series harder to make.

For this I have started with this data from Betfair Exchange on the number of seats the Tories will win: betfair.com/exchange/plus/…
(If I have better data in future I will use that instead!)
There are essentially 3 General Election outcomes:
1️⃣ Tory majority (needs 320 Tory MPs to be sure)
2️⃣ Mess (between 290 and 319 Tory MPs)
3️⃣ Opposition parties majority (fewer than 289 Tory MPs to be sure)
These are then plotted onwards towards different Brexit outcomes - based on whether a government can be formed or not, and making a judgment on what that government would do
For this series - even more than before - I need your input! Is there better data already available than the Betfair Exchange data? Are my majority assumptions right? Do let me know!
High res PNG of this:
techpolitics.eu/downloads/brex…

Scaleable PDF:
techpolitics.eu/downloads/brex…

Blog post with all the info and files:
jonworth.eu/brexitdiagram-…

/ends
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
Some changes in the Betfair Exchange odds for number of Conservative seats today, and these have been fed into #BrexitDiagram Series 4 - now V1.1.0
Outcomes (with change compared to V1.0.0):
57% (⬇️ 3%) Brexit with Deal 31 Jan
15% (⬇️ 1%) Stalemate
28% (⬆️ 4%) 2nd Referendum
Please note the new versioning here.

Changes to the diagram structure will be reflected by changes to the first number.

Changes just in probabilities at nodes, the second number.

Correction of text only, the third number.

This is V1.1.0 - i.e. new odds compared to V1.0.0
Read 4 tweets
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
So it seems this thread about the green NGO sector in the Brussels EU bubble managed to annoy quite a lot of people...
So I better try to explain things a bit more in a more detailed thread.

The basic issue is this: a Twitter account that is personal will result in greater engagement than an organisational account.
Don't get me wrong - accounts like @transenv @HealthandEnv @foeeurope @Green_Europe have their uses for information purposes - but who is the human behind each? If I ask an account like that a question, do I get an answer? If I do is it from the right person in the organisation?
Read 12 tweets
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
I'm running a workshop for @ECOS_Standard in BXL today

One of the things we wondered about is what *people* tweet personally about environmental issues in the BXL EU bubble, and have a decent following

🌳🌻🥦
The challenge is that organisations like @eeb @transenv @HealthandEnv @foeeurope are organisationally really strong, but who are the senior people within those organisations who are tweeting personally? The comms people do, but it seems the senior people don't.
The sort of person I am looking for is someone like what @mvanhulten is for transparency issues, @HeatherGrabbe or @astroehlein is for human rights and democracy issues, or @mark_johnston is for energy issues

Who are those individuals for environment policy in the EU bubble?
Read 4 tweets

Related threads

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Collab blues
@Collabblues
A #brexit story with #flags, in english, with the amazing translation of @240185

1950
🇫🇷 "We got our ass kicked badly this time. Never do this again, eh?"
🇩🇪 "Ach, Ich agree"
🇫🇷 ceases Occupation of Saarland
🇫🇷 🇩🇪 cast ECSC
🇫🇷 🇩🇪 invite 🇧🇪 🇮🇹 🇱🇺 🇳🇱
🇬🇧 "WTF, what's that shit?"
🇬🇧 "Don't care, won't work anyway"
🇫🇷 🇩🇪 🇧🇪 🇮🇹 🇱🇺 🇳🇱 cast EEC and Euratom
🇬🇧 "What can I do to piss them off?"

1960
🇬🇧 casts EFTA
🇨🇭 🇳🇴 🇩🇰 🇵🇹 🇦🇹 join EFTA
🇪🇺 casts Customs Union
1961
🇬🇧 "May I play with y'all?"
🇫🇷 "Piss off"
🇩🇪 🇧🇪 🇮🇹 🇱🇺 🇳🇱 "Ya sure?"
🇫🇷 "I know him, he's a punk. He keeps breaking my toys since 1066. I swear to God he won't enter"
🇬🇧 "Don't care, don't want to join your shitty club anyway"
Read 86 tweets
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Richard Smith
@richardavsmith
Here we go again. #startoftheline #summeroftrains2019 #es9150
You can find my journeys by train in Europe earlier this year here. #springoftrains

You've got to hand it to Eurostar: it takes a lot of self confidence and optimism to claim you have WiFi time and time again despite all evidence to the contrary. We could all learn a thing or two

(My first tweet was initially sent in London. It didn't make it up until Calais!)
Read 320 tweets
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Jonathan Mills
@Muinchille
One of the most striking features of the UK's interaction with Ireland over #Brexit* has been the constant reappearance of very resilient British ideas of Ireland which appear to be datable to the 1950s, 60s and 70s.

*not just Brexit either.
There is a striking coincidence here; the 50s and 60s are the last period in which Ireland experienced near catastrophic levels of emigration to England. Is it possible that the two are connected? It seems likely. How would that work?
There are a couple of things going on here in both British and Irish culture. First the Irish one; it is no easy thing to emigrate. Irish family ties are very strong, and to abandon them all to live abroad is hard. It requires a very strong justification to be constructed.
Read 12 tweets
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Nick Vucic
@npv708
Brexit, but in gifs.

#Brexit
The Leave Campaign prior to the referendum:
The Remain Campaign prior to the referendum:
Read 125 tweets
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Lord Snoutintrough #FBPE
@Rowland72James
#BREXIT craziness update so maybots deal is blown out of the water l. Similarly corbyns vote of no confidence fails and won't be backed by SNP and lib dems
Despite her #BREXIT deal being defeated by biggest margin a government has lost a vote ever maybot seeks concessions on backstop despite being told to bog off by the EU with no realistic hope of a different answer
Corbyn meanwhile refuses to talk #BREXIT without no deal being ruled out despite knowing she can't do this whilst maybot makes no concessions either.
Read 14 tweets

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