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Good (if unsurprising) reporting here that Bloomberg's announcement may just have been a trial balloon, but the phase "particularly if Joe Biden stays in" is kind of nutso.

He's leading in almost every national poll and has for months!

axios.com/mike-bloomberg…
I know the Sanders folks talk about "Bernie erasure" but it seems like there's at least as much Biden erasure.

We're at the point where the blind spot that NYC/DC conventional wisdom has for Biden is as bad as the one it had for Trump in the GOP primaries four year ago.
You'd think, if anything, the lesson "don't be dismissive of a candidate who maintains a polling lead for months with a working-class coalition despite constant predictions of his demise from Acela corridor elites" would have been *overlearned*. But, nope, same shit as last time.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
I do think, although Buttigieg has generally gotten favorable news coverage, the "boy genius" stuff is a pretty straw-mannish and inaccurate caricature of why (some, though certainly not all) D voters like him.
His positions on the issues are pretty well-calibrated relative to the D electorate. He's been good in debates. As the first major LGBTQ candidate, his candidacy is historic, He's young in a field of old folks. He can paint himself as an outsider. He's Midwestern (helps in IA).
To be clear, I'm marginally skeptical of the sustainability of this surge and whether it spreads beyond IA/NH. But there's a fair amount to work with there and he's an unconventional candidate.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Everyone's doing "OK boomer" dunks on Biden for this but if you actually watch the clip (and/or do some research), his position on marijuana is quite a bit further to the left than you'd assume from the headlines.
Biden's position on pot seems to be:
—Decriminalize nationally
—Legalize medical nationally
—Let states legalize recreational
—Release all people with pot convictions from jail
—Remove pot from Sched 1.
—Do more research to see long-term harm potential/if it's a "gateway drug"
Granted, politicians have been way way WAY behind the public on pot legalization. But Biden's position is, on several of the points above, a few steps to the left of the Democratic Party platform in 2016, for instance. It's quite a bit to the left of Obama's when he was POTUS.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Tier 1 NBA title contenders: Bucks, Clippers
Tier 2: 76ers, Rockets, Lakers
Tier 3: Jazz, Celtics, Raptors, Nuggets

Relative to Vegas we're bullish on Milwaukee and bearish on the Lakers. Others fairly similar. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nba-predi…
As a technical aside, Giannis's RAPTOR rating is likely to improve from very good to MVP-level once RAPTOR fully incorporates a strength-of-schedule adjustment. (The Bucks have played a tough schedule so far.) 53eig.ht/349hY9n
The predictive version of RAPTOR (not published, but used to fuel our projections) is more aggressive about adjusting for strength of schedule and thinks Giannis/the Bucks are having a spectacular season. Regular RAPTOR should catch up after another 5-10 games or so.
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Related threads

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John Stoehr's Editorial Board
@johnastoehr
1. In practical terms, there really isn’t much point in discussing the impact Michael Bloomberg would have on the race for the Democratic Party’s nomination.
2. As Alternet’s @JoshuaHol said, the former New York mayor has been on the edge of running for president for years. Let’s save that energy for if and when he jumps in.
@JoshuaHol 3. But I think it’s worth discussing why the press corps has been talking about Bloomberg & his potential affect on the Dem field. It’s worth discussing how elites view him relative to how normal ppl view him. Not surprisingly, the elites are seeing something normal ppl are not.
Read 24 tweets
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Matt Delmont
@mattdelmont
"Biden takes flak on race and busing. But his views may still mirror America’s" by @isaacstanbecker. This is a good piece that quotes historian Brett Gadsden, whose book "Between North and South" is the best place to start to understand Biden and "busing" washingtonpost.com/nation/2019/06…
To understand the #DemDebate2 exchange between #KamalaHarris & Joe #Biden, you have to understand that "busing" has been used since the 50s as a code word to oppose school integration. I cover this history in "Why Busing Failed" & the book's website whybusingfailed.com/anvc/why-busin…
White parents in the North organized after Brown v Board to maintain segregated schools, using euphemisms like "busing" & "neighborhood schools" to maintain segregated schools without explicitly saying they didn't like black or Latinx students #DemDebate2 whybusingfailed.com/anvc/why-busin…
Read 10 tweets
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Gregory McKelvey
@GregoryMcKelvey
Here we go again! Welcome to my live tweet of the Democratic debate aka the roast of Joe Biden. Let’s get it.
The higher tax rates that Bernie is proposing for any American will more than pay for themselves. If you are middle class and Bernie raises your taxes, you will still be saving money because your healthcare will be free.
Biden is wrong. We should demonize the rich. Hoarding money when others are starving is immoral.
Read 56 tweets
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Victoria Brownworth #PrideMonth
@VABVOX
Stunningly damning piece with some data about #Biden even I was unaware of. Marcotte makes some critical points here about Biden and his birth control history.
1/
 It's not just one gaffe: Joe Biden can't be counted on to fight for reproductive rights salon.com/2019/06/14/its…
The most crucial point in Marcotte's exegesis is that #Biden has always stood up for right wing Catholics and evangelicals over women on repro rights and she outlines specific instances including as VP that are quite disturbing.
2/
And it IS telling that the small percentage of pro-#Biden poll numbers among women are all post-menopausal age. Which is cringeworthy when you think about it. Choice has to be protected for all women and girls. So as Marcotte notes, the nominee must be all in for women.
3/
Read 4 tweets
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Victoria Brownworth #PrideMonth
@VABVOX
As @rtraister wrote in detail for @TheCut in March.

Is #Biden even still running? Didn't show in California. Where is he?

Biden's past abortion record holds surprises: report msnbc.com/morning-joe/wa…
Here's the @rtraister piece on #Biden. It's long but tremendously informative.

Joe Biden Isn’t the Answer
thecut.com/2019/03/joe-bi…
This is another good piece on #Biden by @joanwalsh

Good Luck, Joe Biden! You’ll Need It. via @thenation thenation.com/article/good-l…
Read 4 tweets
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Lola Netty
@TXTrumpette89
The prosecutor #Biden got fired was leading a wide-ranging corruption probe into the natural gas firm #Burisma Holdings that employed Biden’s younger son, Hunter, as a board member. thehill.com/opinion/white-…
Last year, Biden bragged at a foreign policy event about his threats to the Ukrainian president but left out the part about his son’s company being investigated.

dailywire.com/news/45438/vic…
Joe Biden, His Son & the Case Against a Ukrainian Oligarch

nytimes.com/2015/12/09/wor…
Read 27 tweets

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