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🛑 Rigid Currency Pegs Break 🛑 As an update to our seminal work on Hong Kong 🇭🇰 back in 2019, conditions today (both macroeconomic and political) will likely cause the 39-yr HKD peg to the USD to be stressed enough to cause a cathartic revaluation of the HKD. Participants 1/10
have little understanding of the fragility of such rigid relationships. Pundits from the HKMA and academia frequently report the HKD currency board is a ‘perfect’ and ‘sustainable’ relationship.This self-serving market affirmation has become somewhat of a financial apostolic 2/10
Creed that’s flawed at its foundation. Today’s HKMA ‘excess reserves’ that are reportedly liquid and ready to be used to defend the 7.85 peg amount to $42.9B. HK banking deposits are $728B in USD and $965B USD worth of HKD. If only 5.8% of USD deposits leave HK 3/10
Read 10 tweets
On Sunday, an election committee of around 1500 people, mostly pro-#Beijing, will be choosing the next leader for #HongKong. The sole candidate in the race is viewed as a tough enforcer of #China's ambition to further roll back #HK's autonomy. My latest:…
Hong Kong's former chief secretary John Lee is the only candidate on the ballot and critics warn the whole process is under the complete control of the Chinese government in Beijing.
The chief executive is elected for a term of five years by the members of the election committee, a body that's made up mostly of pro-Beijing figures, and the new leader is expected to take office on July 1.
Read 35 tweets
1/Strongly recommend everyone to read the transcript of @UKSupremeCourt Lord Reed's comment on his resignation from HK's Court of Final Appeal. Powerful and humble response to the legal compradors in #HK:…
2/some quotes: "The courts themselves were continuing to operate in accordance with rule of law values, although they were under pressure. It has to be said that one cannot completely divorce what was going on in the courts from what was going on outside the courts"
3/"One was the use of powers conferred by the (NSL) to close down businesses and seize property.The other was the arrest of people on charges of having violated either the national security law or laws passed during the period of British rule concerned with sedition,for example."
Read 7 tweets
When reassuring yourselves about various levels of FX reserves, it’s imperative that we all remember what happened to Korea during the last Asian Currency Crisis. Korea was showing the largest pile of USD fx reserves in Asia. When the Thai baht broke the peg in 97’, 1/9
Investors were sanguine about Korea due to the reserve balance they were reporting. The problem was that the Korean central bank had ‘lent’ those reserves to their banks who had spent them defending the peg. The finance minister of Korea called US Treasury Secretary in a 2/9
panic and told him Korea had a desperate need for a USD loan from the US Treasury/FED. When rigid structures go south, all of the math, all of the belief,and then all of the reserves vaporize at such breathtaking speed. Those unprepared at the outset couldn’t get positioned 3/9
Read 9 tweets
What an honour. A full page in #HongKong's #CCP Ta Kung Pao

First they deny me entry

Then they send me, my neighbours, mother & employers threats, lobby UK MPs to try to silence me, and send fake emails

Then they threaten me under #NationalSecurityLaw

Now it's Ta Kung Pao :)
To break it down, bit by bit, here's the first part :)

My response: if speaking out for the freedoms, democracy, human rights, rule of law & autonomy which #HongKong was promised under an international treaty and which #CCP has betrayed is a crime, then I plead very, very guilty
I did live in #HongKong for the first five years after the handover, from 1997-2002, where I worked as a journalist.

I love #HK and #HongKongers

If criticising #CCP and its quislings in HK is a crime, then I plead guilty - but guilty of telling the truth, not guilty of smearing
Read 10 tweets
Gegen Annexionen und imperiale Aggression - Erklärung der Autonomen Aktion [#Russland] - Weiterlesen:… #Ukraine #antireport
"Ich träume von einer nachhaltigen und friedlichen Gesellschaft ohne Staaten, aber die russische Aggression zwingt mich, in die Armee einzutreten" [#Ukraine] - Weiterlesen:… Image
Soldat*in! Der Feind ist in #Minsk, nicht in #Kiew! [#Belarus] - Weiterlesen:… #Russland #Ukraine #antireport
Read 86 tweets
Most Hong Kong virus curbs to be extended until mid-end April: Carrie Lam
#HongKong #HK
Hong Kong to do compulsory universal testing within 3 months: Carrie Lam
#HongKong #HK
Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam says city is not considering total lockdown for now.
#HongKong #HK #lockdowns
Read 4 tweets
The #HK Govt's Compulsory Testing Notices create huge queues and overwhelm the testing capacity with people who mostly don't feel ill, rather than those who actually need a test. Utter madness, and perhaps a million person-hours of wasted time. 1/2…
This results in delayed diagnosis and likely further spread of infections by unconfirmed cases. Stop the Compulsory Testing and focus on those who need it! 2/2
Read 4 tweets
The #HK Government has already lost control of this outbreak and "Dynamic Zero-COVID" is history. They just don't know it or won't admit it yet. Here's why (thread):
1. There's a 2-3 day lag between testing & reporting, and a 2-3 day lag between infection & testing.
2. That's a total of about 5 days between infection and reporting.
3. The doubling time in unlinked cases, a proxy for growth in the wild, is around 4 days, so 2^(5/4)=2.38x for the number of cases infected today and reported in 5 days' time.
4. For every 2 reported cases, there's maybe 1 who doesn't come forward, vaxed with mild symptoms, given the disincentives (throwing all their contacts into the quarantine system). They may self-test using a RAT. So 2.38*1.5=3.57x.
Read 7 tweets
In Asia's Isolated City, #HK recorded a record low 465 passenger arrivals at all ports on the last day of the year of the Ox, 31-Jan, including just 100 at the airport, the second-lowest on record after 95 on 26-Apr-2021, but...1/2
The all-ports record was beaten again yesterday, 1-Feb, when just 282 passengers arrived, comprising only 86 at Shenzhen Bay (a record low), 161 at the airport and 35 on the HKZM Bridge. 2/2.
More people (102) tested positive on 31-Jan (reported 1-Feb) after local transmission than arrived at the airport (100). That's probably a record too. At some point soon, there is no longer any point in an inbound quarantine requirement.
Read 3 tweets
“The shutdown of Apple Daily was definitely the last straw that led to the decision. As a veteran, I simply could not find a suitable position that I would fit without worrying about my integrity and personal safety," said Pak, a journalist from #HK.…
At least 1,562 Hong Kong civil society jobs have been lost so far to the government’s crackdown on dissent under a Beijing-imposed national security law, according to data compiled by Bloomberg News.
More than 60 organizations including media companies, trade unions, political bodies, and religious and human rights groups have disbanded in the past year, under intense pressure from national security police.
Read 16 tweets
THREAD: Some reflections on @ReginaIplau very kind tribute to my work & that of @hk_watch, which is much appreciated


1. I was denied entry to #HongKong by #CCP in Oct 2017. So if she wants to draw parallels between me & #ChristineLee, perhaps UK should expel Ms Lee? /
2. The parallel, however, is ridiculous. I do not live in #HongKong, I have not influenced anyone in #HK, I have not donated any money to anyone in HK. I have merely expressed opinions & conducted advocacy in support of the wishes of #HongKongers.

In contrast to Ms Lee/
3. Ms Lee has allegedly donated funds to political parties in UK, gained access to Parliament, and, it seems, may have spied and lied on behalf of the #CCP

I have never even visited Legco in #HongKong (I went to old Legco when I lived there from 1997-2002 but that's different)/
Read 8 tweets
1/ Sharing my recent article in Mingpao, in response to people (especially those in the legal community) who say that legally aided persons don't pay, and thus should have no right to choose their lawyers.
2/ Legal aid is built into the justice system to address the inequalities inherent in our society. It acts like a capacitor in an electric circuit, to smooth out the fluctuations.
3/ Legally aided persons are those who lose out in the system, because of the way the system is built and sustained. They don't pay not because they don't want to, but because they can't.
Read 5 tweets
1/ Here is my observations on HKSAR v Ma Chun Man (2021), which has a Chinese verdict and an English Press Summary for now:… (20 tweets,beware!)
2/x The reasons for verdict have 84 paragraphs, and only 4 of them discuss the court’s view on human rights jurisprudence. Sadly, they are insufficient, incoherent and not up to international standard. (See para.46-47, 64-65) #HK #NSL
3/x in para.46, The verdict cited the Jimmy Lai case at the CFA (FACC1/2021) to state article 4 of the NSL safeguards basic rights and freedoms according to Hong Kong law…
Read 20 tweets
Gurkhas and the British

Men from the hillsides of Nepal began joining the British Army in 1815,right after the end of the 1st phase of the Anglo-Gurkha War of 1814-16.They have been serving the British Crown ever since.#Gurkha #Gurkhas #Nepal #ENGITA #Eng…
The Gurkhas played an essential role in establishing the British Raj in India and fought for the British in Afghanistan, what was then Burma, Tibet and in countless other conflicts.

#England #Britain #British #Army #BritishArmy #Eng #ENGITA #Euro2020Final #EuroFinal #EURO2020
In the first world war alone, tiny Nepal,with a population of around 5 million, sent over 200,000 Gurkhas to fight for the British. 1 in 10 never returned. In the second world war over 250,000 Gurkhas fought alongside the British and more than 33,000 never returned.

Read 15 tweets
In #HongKong: @StandNewsHK, one of the pro-democracy online media named as one of the next targets of HK police's crackdown under the #NSL, announced that they will delete all the opinion pieces published in May and prior to that and they will also stop receiving sponsorship.
Additionally, six members on the board of directors of Stand News' parent company have resigned from their positions. This is yet another sign that #pressfreedom in #HongKong under the #NSL is facing huge threat.
Just a few days ago, #HongKong government forced #AppleDaily, #HK's largest pro-democracy newspaper, to shut down after freezing its assets, arrested five top executives and one opinion writer, and raided its newsroom in the name of violation of #NSL.
Read 8 tweets
Sing Tao Daily reported that some Chinese foreign policy officials published an article that said the anti-sanction law passed by #Beijing will be executable in #HongKong and it can be used to make the city's national security legal framework more…
The article was published under the Chinese Communist Party school's affiliated publication and the two authors are government officials with foreign policy expertise.
In the article, they wrote the anti-sanction law will become a useful tool for #China to counter sanctions imposed by foreign countries. They proposed that since the #NSL enacted in #HongKong last year was carried out by being included in Annex 3 of the Basic Law in #HK.
Read 4 tweets
Authorities in #HongKong cited the ongoing #NSL investigation as the ground to freeze Jimmy Lai's assets in the city. His shares in Next Digital Limited and bank accounts belonging to three other companies he owns were frozen.…
This comes following another heavy news for Lai's media empire as @appledaily_hk announced that they will stop printing the physical newspaper in #Taiwan after May 17, marking an end of the paper in Taiwan for almost two decades.
Lai has been made one of the prime targets of #HongKong and #Beijing authorities' crackdown on #HK's civil society and opposition forces. He's been given multiple charges and has also been sentenced to more than a year in jail in at least one case.
Read 5 tweets
Jeremy Tam broke into tears several times & while making his statement in court. #Reporters cried while transcribing his words. We all know he's a pilot before becoming a Legco member, but we don't know how he grow up from ghetto.
#HK47 #NSL47 #HongKong
Their family home (a wooden hut) was burnt down & moved to a squatter area. He grew up w/o toys. A bowl of instant noodles to be shared among 3ppl as supper. His dad worked so hard as a taxi driver & finally be able to send him to Australia to pursue his study...
He studied hard to become a commercial pilot. Unfortunately his #father diagnosed w/colon cancer. The targeted therapy cost him $30k/month. He can afford it but this got him thinking, what abt other #HK ppl? He wants to do sth for #HongKong. He then become a #politician...
Read 6 tweets
#HongKong Crowds gathered outside court as 47 pro-democracy candidates, campaigners & activists are charged with conspiracy to commit subversion under national security law #NSL.

The prosecutions, a clear statement of intent, are descending into farce. Trouble in Hong Kong. 🧵
Hard to know where to begin with this statement.
The evidence being relied upon predates the #NSL which is said not to be retroactive. And yet...
Read 13 tweets
According to several #HongKong media, the Chinese Association of Hon Kong & Macao Studies, which is affiliated with #China's Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office, will hold a seminar tomorrow and the focus is on "improving #HK's electoral system."…
The director of the #HongKong and Macau Affairs Office, Xia Baolong, is scheduled to attend the seminar and give a speech focusing on "allowing patriots to run #HK." In recent days, there have been a lot of information about #China is planning to reform ...
... #HongKong's electoral system, and state media published interviews with scholars who advocated reformation of #HongKong's electoral system and fulfill #China's goal of "allowing patriots to run #HK."
Read 4 tweets
Five #HongKong people who successfully fled to #Taiwan last year have arrived in the U.S. through the support of people in both countries. They plan to apply for asylum. They told @appledaily_hk that they don’t think there is still fair trials in #HK.…
Among the five of them include two who face charges including assaulting police and rioting. @samuelmchu, who has been lobbying support for #HongKong in the US that the five of them have arrived in the US this week.
One of them with the pseudo name Kenny compared his fortune to that of the 12 #HongKong people who failed to flee to #Taiwan and are now serving jail sentences in #China. He said he was fortunate to have made it to Taiwan.
Read 4 tweets
Latest: On the day of Chinese human rights lawyer Lu Siwei's hearing for his license, at least eight people were arrested. A lawyer who also handled the case of the 12 #HongKong youth described #Beijing's move as "revealing its guilty conscience."…
Lu was appointed by family members of the 12 Hong Kong people detained in Shenzhen to handle their cases last year, and earlier this month, he received a notification from the Sichuan Provincial Justice Department, informing him that they were planning to revoke his license.
He was scheduled to attend a hearing at 9 a.m. on Wednesday morning and according to information from sources, Lu was brought into the Justice Department in an arbitrary fashion.
Read 31 tweets
After @jamespomfret's report suggests that #Beijing might plan to further change the electoral system in #HongKong, Chinese state-media @globaltimesnews published an op-ed, arguing that #HK should seek long-term mechanisms to ensure "electoral safety."…
The op-ed claimed that over the past few years, some "radical forces" tried to use elections for the Legco and the district council as an occasion to "tear #HongKong society apart, paralyze the SAR's political system and administrative operation."
"They are essentially trying to turn elections into something that oppose the SAR's mission," Global Times wrote.
Read 6 tweets

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