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Tier 1 NBA title contenders: Bucks, Clippers
Tier 2: 76ers, Rockets, Lakers
Tier 3: Jazz, Celtics, Raptors, Nuggets

Relative to Vegas we're bullish on Milwaukee and bearish on the Lakers. Others fairly similar. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nba-predi…
As a technical aside, Giannis's RAPTOR rating is likely to improve from very good to MVP-level once RAPTOR fully incorporates a strength-of-schedule adjustment. (The Bucks have played a tough schedule so far.) 53eig.ht/349hY9n
The predictive version of RAPTOR (not published, but used to fuel our projections) is more aggressive about adjusting for strength of schedule and thinks Giannis/the Bucks are having a spectacular season. Regular RAPTOR should catch up after another 5-10 games or so.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
For UK folks on the YouGov "MRP poll":

In 2017, YouGov did well because their poll had the *overall topline vote* about right, showing only a narrow Tory margin. Their MRP model did NOT do a particularly good job of translating votes into seats, however.
yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…
Many other pollsters had the Tories winning big. So YouGov deserves much credit for getting the topline number roughly right.

The MRP/model part itself (translating votes->seats) was meh though. If YouGov had Tories up 10 like other polls, their seat # would have been way off.
So the news in YouGov's poll tonight is that it has Tories up 11 UK (fairly typical of recent polls). It's no surprise that Tories would expect to win lots of seats if that's the final margin. But MRP is not magic. It's an OK/reasonable technique but its powers are overstated.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
While health care might have been the largest *single* cause for Warren's recent slump, seems like a bunch of other things (some interrelated) must also be considered:

1) The national media narrative on Warren became more critical once she became a perceived frontrunner;
(cont)
2. Some rich donors/party elites signaled they weren't happy with Warren;
3) Bernie went back on the trail and got some high-profile endorsements & has been sharp;
4a) Buttigieg went after Warren from the right;
4b) Buttigieg began to get more press coverage citing rising polls;
5) Warren had a few mediocre general election polls that were much discussed in the press;
6) Last, and certainly not least, the track record of what happens to women in Democratic primaries once they're perceived as frontrunners also needs to be considered.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Also, here's a new regions-by-congressional-district map for you to fight about with your families. The 4 major reasons (Northeast, Midwest, South, West) have been divided into 10 total subregions. Note that there are a couple of exclaves / regions aren't entirely contiguous.
FWIW although these regions might seem hopelessly subjective, they actually have predictive power for how well candidates perform in given states in the primaries. (That's why I've been working on them.) There is definitely a "home region" advantage.
But regional identity is complex. The major region (e.g. the Midwest) the sub-region (e.g. the Great Lakes) and whether two states share a border all tell you something about how a candidate is likely to perform.
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Related threads

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Julian Mozo
@JulianMozo
Tema #Campazzo-#NBA: me tomé tiempo para averiguar. Hay intereses concretos. Como el de los Nuggets, que me hablan de dos trabas: la alta cláusula de rescisión y el deseo de Facu. "Aún no tuvimos charlas, pero creemos que prefiere quedarse en el Real", me dijeron. Me sorprende.
Denver no es el único que lo busca. Varios equipos se comunicaron con el agente de Campazzo para manifestar interés (legalmente, hasta el 1° de julio, no pueden hacerle ofertas) y saber qué pretende Facu. Se encontraron con una vara alta, una serie de requisitos del jugador. #NBA
Hace 2 años, Facu estaba más obsesionado con la #NBA pero cada mes que pasa se siente más cómodo en el Real. La situación cambió por varios motivos:
1) Lo deportivo: Campazzo pasó a ser el dueño del equipo, juega mucho, alcanzó nivel top y pelea (o gana) cada torneo que juega.
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Bennet Kelley
@bennetkelley
1/ Congratulations to the #Raptors and to #Canada on winning their first NBA title. They played a great series - #kawhileonard was a great leader but 4 players with 20 points in an elimination game is huge. #NBAFinals
2/ The #Warriors showed a lot of heart and hustle in staying in this game despite injuries and had the ball in Curry's hands with a chance to win, but didn't get it done. #NBAFinals
3/ Yes, the #Warriors were banged up in an epic way, but that doesn't take away from what the #Raptors accomplished. Remember when the 1987 #Lakers beat a banged up #Celtics team? As a #Celtics fan, I was still in awe of how talented the Lakers were.
Read 5 tweets
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Alfredo Gallegos
@alfredogr_98
[HILO]

LA DINASTÍA DE POPOVICH: MANU, DUNCAN y PARKER.

La HISTORIA de cómo se formó a través de los años uno de los mejores equipos de Baloncesto de la historia

Un estilo de juego bien definido, pero lo más importante es que lograron formar una FAMILIA

Empezamos 🍿👇🏼
No podemos empezar de otra forma más que con el artista principal de esta obra, el señor Greg Popovich.

De padre serbio y madre croata, se graduó en 1966 en el Instituto Merrillville y en 1970 en la Academia de Fuerzas Aéreas de los Estados Unidos.
Allí jugó 4 años al baloncesto, y en su año senior fue el capitán y el máximo anotador.

Jugo también en la liga profesional de baloncesto de la antigua Yugoslavia (que era una de las más fuertes de Europa) y fue 2 veces maximo anotador.
Read 49 tweets
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Didier S. Montes
@didiersebastian
1. Tras el primer partido de la final de la #NBA entre Raptors y Warriors, los focos están en Kawhi Leonard, Marc Gasol o Paskal Siakam. Pero hay una persona a la que se le puede echar (casi) toda la culpa del éxito de los Toronto Raptors. ¿Quién es Masai Ujiri? Hilo.
2. Masai Ujiri nace en Inglaterra, donde estudiaban sus padres: una doctora keniata y un enfermero nigeriano. Con sólo dos años, la familia regresa a Nigeria, donde crece jugando al fútbol hasta los 12 o 13 años, cuando descubre el baloncesto. Un amor que marcará su vida.
3. Como es de esperar, Ujiri intenta primero triunfar como jugador. Tras jugar en edad de instituto en los Estados Unidos, cruza el charco para hacer carrera en Europa. Juega en varios países: Alemania, Inglaterra, Bélgica, Finlandia… Con 32 años deja el baloncesto.
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David Locke
@Lockedonsports
Nuggets 10 Jazz 7 with 6:37 left in the 1st quarter
Neither team hitting shots early. Nugs are 5 of 12 without a three and the Jazz are 3 of 10 with 1 three.
Denver is 27-4 at home
Teams playing at home with rest advantage have won 70% of all games this year
Nuggets 16 Jazz 9 with 3:31 left in the 1st Quarter
Nuggets will run an inverse pick and roll with Jokic handling and Murray picking. It is one of the best in the NBA averaging 1.3 points per pick and roll
Jazz offense struggling without a point guard right now.
Jazz 29 Nuggets 24 with 6:50 left in 2nd quarter
Nuggets are 0 for 10 from three to start
Donovan is 0 for 3
Gobert is 0 for 3
Offenses are generally 0 for so far
Read 8 tweets
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David Locke
@Lockedonsports
Jazz jump out early on the Lakers 16-4. Great early action getting Ingles to rim with ease. Donovan Mitchell catch and shoot three and Rubio nails a corner 3. Lakers without Ball, Kuzma and Ingram tonight
Lakers stop throwing the ball all over the gym and are now outplaying the Jazz. Jazz still holding to the lead at 34-30. Tyler Ennis of the Lakers playing well. Jazz have 9 turnovers with 7:34 left in the 2nd quarter
At the end of the 2nd half Jazz played even with the Lakers after Rudy Gobert got his 3rd foul at the 6:24 mark.
Read 12 tweets

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