Bitcoin is the first invention of something on the Internet that cannot be copied. When something is scarce, it can store value, fine art and gold are some examples.
Here's some buckets that people store value in:
Gold: $8T
Stocks: $75T
Fiat: $90T
Real Estate: $220T
And now, we can store value online...
Bitcoin: $150B
We are in a post-industrial Internet age.
Bitcoin is growing from being a thimble to a bucket.
Let's look at how quickly it has grown in its 10 years.
It's on track to exceed M1 USD in the next 5 years... That's to say all the money in cash, credit card and cheque accounts, of the world reserve currency.
What's happening, as we move from the Industrial Age to the Digital Age, is money itself is becoming digitally native and programmable.
Here's the 10,000 year view.
As the Bitcoin asset class inflates with value, it has outperformed every other asset class for its entire 10 year history.
Under the lens of ROI adjusted for risk, it's as performant today as it was in 2009, you haven't missed the boat.
After that, they'll usually ask about buying some Bitcoin.
I think my hit rate is +90%.
You may at this point warn them to avoid fake Bitcoins until they know exactly what they are, i.e. BCH and BSV. I say this in case they start going to bitcoin dot com by mistake.
I usually send them somewhere depending on their country.
Next year I'll recommend LVL when they do integrated banking and crypto accounts.
(Disclosure: I'm an LVL seed investor and yes that's a reflink)
1) me: Whales dumping Gemini is bogus data 2) @glassnode: it's an internal transfer 3) @cryptoquant_com: it's an external transfer 4) @coinmetrics: it's BlockFi
Me: warning 28,300 traders of whales dumping needs fact-checking.
Did a whale send in 18k of BTC into Gemini to dump the markets? Or was it a data error?
This alert was sent out to 28,300 traders warning of whale dumping. Speculators sold off minutes later.
This chart shows Gemini prices vs the average of Coinbase and Binance.
When the warning was sent out to traders, Gemini price did not dip relative to others which is what dumping there would look like. In fact it rose indicating net purchasing on that exchange.
Gemini trades $100m-$200m per day; that's insufficient liquidity to absorb a $1b sell. Price moves 2% on a $2m order there.
While we are in the first great consolidation of the 2021 bull market, here's a bunch of charts to get the feel of where we are in this bull cycle.
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SOPR tracks profit-taken when coins being sold. It hit the 1.0 line which means we completely reset. To go lower we'd need to have investors sell at a loss. This would need a bear phase (that's is NOT on the cards with the current setup)
Here's how it looks in the longer time frame (1 week SOPR). Pretty close to a full reset, Elon kind of screwed with it, bounced us early.
Commenters didn’t like these objective data points and missed the point that stablecoins are increasingly used for transmission of funds and securitising trade settlement.
It’s not just used for hedging from bearish crypto price action like the old days.
Bitcoin’s cap is tiny next to demands of global remittance and trade. Here you get a sense of just how small and early Bitcoin in its life cycle compared to where it needs to be to serve the finance world in a meaningful sense.
On a markets analysis note, some of us have been using USDT cap vs BTC cap as an oversold / overbought fundamental macro indicator, this signal is likely to be less effective in future given the changing use cases of Tether.