My latest on Bolivia @TheAtlantic:
There is a risk of military dictatorship or Morales returning.
BUT there is also a real prospect of free elections.
And we should take inspiration from those who stood up for democracy even if their revolution fails.
theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
There is a risk of military dictatorship or Morales returning.
BUT there is also a real prospect of free elections.
And we should take inspiration from those who stood up for democracy even if their revolution fails.
theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
Since Morales’ resignation, he has done what he can to incite civil war.
He has encouraged his supporters to seek violent confrontations with the government, stopped food from getting to civilians, and even given insurrectionary troops tactical advice.
cnnespanol.cnn.com/2019/11/20/gob…
He has encouraged his supporters to seek violent confrontations with the government, stopped food from getting to civilians, and even given insurrectionary troops tactical advice.
cnnespanol.cnn.com/2019/11/20/gob…
BUT the interim government that succeeded Morales has proven similarly unwilling to defuse tensions, and now carries some of the blame for the current chaos.
Jeanine Añez is a staunch conservative who ascended to the presidency because of arcane rules of succession. She has a history of racist tweets, and promised security forces immunity for actions they take to reestablish order.
Tragically, 30 people have been killed as a result.
Tragically, 30 people have been killed as a result.
There are now two worst-case scenarios:
i) Like Napolen in 1815, Morales comes back. His rule resembles that of Venezuela's Chavistas even more closely.
ii) Añez relies on repression even more heavily. The ugliest episodes of 20th century Latin America make a return in the 21st
i) Like Napolen in 1815, Morales comes back. His rule resembles that of Venezuela's Chavistas even more closely.
ii) Añez relies on repression even more heavily. The ugliest episodes of 20th century Latin America make a return in the 21st
2)
These are big risks. BUT the past days have also brought some very positive - and largely ignored - news.
The Bolivian House and Senate, both dominated by members of Morales’ own party, UNANIMOUSLY accepted a new law that prepares the way for fresh elections.
These are big risks. BUT the past days have also brought some very positive - and largely ignored - news.
The Bolivian House and Senate, both dominated by members of Morales’ own party, UNANIMOUSLY accepted a new law that prepares the way for fresh elections.
With both sides starting to compromise, violence is starting to ebb.
As Mónica Eva Copa Murga, the new president of the Senate and a longtime ally of Morales's said, both sides hope “to pacify our country and above all to defend democracy.”
As Mónica Eva Copa Murga, the new president of the Senate and a longtime ally of Morales's said, both sides hope “to pacify our country and above all to defend democracy.”
This makes it more likely that Bolivia will enjoy free-and-fair elections within the next months.
Ideally, a compromise candidate who vows to fight for a greater inclusion of indigenous groups while staunchly opposing Morales’s long-standing attacks on democracy will prevail.
Ideally, a compromise candidate who vows to fight for a greater inclusion of indigenous groups while staunchly opposing Morales’s long-standing attacks on democracy will prevail.
3)
Should we judge revolutions by their ultimate outcome?
No. From Russia to China, many of the most courageous revolts have ultimately turned sour. Those who rose up against Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak were no less noble than those who ousted Tunisia’s Ben Ali.
Should we judge revolutions by their ultimate outcome?
No. From Russia to China, many of the most courageous revolts have ultimately turned sour. Those who rose up against Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak were no less noble than those who ousted Tunisia’s Ben Ali.
The same holds true in Bolivia:
A huge number of Bolivians, including trade unionists, indigenous leaders, and Morales's own allies, stood up against his autocratic rule.
Even if the revolution turns sour, this should inspire us—and, yes, scare populists from Maduro to Erdogan.
A huge number of Bolivians, including trade unionists, indigenous leaders, and Morales's own allies, stood up against his autocratic rule.
Even if the revolution turns sour, this should inspire us—and, yes, scare populists from Maduro to Erdogan.
A last note:
The debate about Bolivia has descended into ideological proxy warfare.
Many people seem to want one of two outcomes: For Morales to return triumphantly, or for the country to descend into fascism.
Why? Because either outcome would confirm their ideological priors.
The debate about Bolivia has descended into ideological proxy warfare.
Many people seem to want one of two outcomes: For Morales to return triumphantly, or for the country to descend into fascism.
Why? Because either outcome would confirm their ideological priors.
But if you actually care about the well-being of people in Bolivia, you should hope that they will take the narrow path towards democracy.
Bolivia deserves both individual freedom and collective self-determination. Let’s hope that it can achieve both in the coming months.
[End]
Bolivia deserves both individual freedom and collective self-determination. Let’s hope that it can achieve both in the coming months.
[End]
Oh, and since I already know that this thread is going to get ratio’d, here is some extra reading.
Happy Thanksgiving, y’all!
theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
Happy Thanksgiving, y’all!
theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
