Thread by @abadjate

Betwn 1985-2000 & again 2009-19 host of "quality" & "growth" stks performed extremely well in India

Betwn 2003-08 was the era of cyclicals largely based on the "investment theme"

So 25 of last 35 yrs hve gone largely towards quality / growth theme . That's a long time !

1/7

Today most 'fear" over priced consumption related stocks and during onset of any mkt correction, most are cheering a fall in "expensive" consumption stocks .

What does all of this mean ?

5/7

It means only one thing:

Nothing in the mkt is permanent in nature.
But then 10 yrs is a long time! Seeing is believing. And it's easy to extrapolate things into perpetuity (favorite time frame: "next 10 yrs")
But themes keep shifting. At first subtly. Then abruptly.

6/7

If you refuse to bend with the changing times in the investment world, you will feel Mr. Market's roller coaster ways even more deeply because you could get left one step behind all the time !

7/7

Pharma was a secular story from 1998 till 2015 (baring 1-2 yrs of under performance in between). It was also a part of "growth" and "quality" as well as a part of "defensive sector" for the longest time (+10 yrs)

Today it's relegated to being just another cyclical biz!

3/7

Consumption was "defensive" for the longest time between 2003-2013. Whenever fund managers felt a correction was coming, they "hid" in consumer names

But then consumers started adding massive alpha to portfolios post 2009. & it has continued till 2019 - Tht's 10 long yrs !

4/7

What is quality & growth kept changing over time:

1985-1999 a host of MNC stocks in India went up exponentially. These again came back into Vogue only post 2013

IT (growth) ran hard frm 1997-2000 & then a fresh journey began frm 2016/17 onwards (we will knw in hindsight)

2/7