Thread by @stephenfhayes

A Dispatch on Qassem Suleimani:

*What led to the strikes last night?
*Who was Suleimani?
*What comes next?

thedispatch.com/p/the-morning-…

"Discussion among senior administration officials about targeting Suleimani began immediately after the December 27 attack, which was quickly attributed to Iran-backed operatives. Trump’s national security team had debated killing Suleimani before, on several occasions..."

Trump's reluctance to strike Suleimani "changed with the attack by Kataib Hezbollah late last week, followed by the brazen and provocative attacks on the U.S. Embassy Tuesday morning, directed by Iran-backed terrorists who gave media interviews as operatives set fires."

And "by Tuesday afternoon, top Trump advisers understood that a response targeting Suleimani was imminent."
thedispatch.com/p/the-morning-…

"It’s hard to overstate the significance of Suleimani’s death, both because of the terror it ends and the response it almost certainly portends."

"Trump often acts rashly, responding to aggressors—both real and perceived—hastily and harshly. But that’s not what happened here. Pro-Iranian militias have been prodding the United States for months, launching rockets at American forces in Iraq" and more.

“[This] was an organized effort by these Iranian-backed militias, Iranian proxies to try and gin up anger and to respond to this American airstrike on their own people." -- @thomasjoscelyn.

@thomasjoscelyn The wave of non-violent, anti-corruption protests in Iraq over the past three months often "included explicit condemnation of Iranian influence in Iraq, with anti-Iran chants and demonstration at Iranian diplomatic outposts in Iraq. "

@thomasjoscelyn "When this discontent threatened to unseat Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi in late October, an emissary from the Iranian regime intervened to save him: Qassem Suleimani."

@thomasjoscelyn "Suleimani and his allies were providing more than political help. Iran-backed militias were actively involved in putting down protests, at times resulting in the deaths of dozens of protesters."

@thomasjoscelyn In early December, the U.S. Treasury Department designated several Iranian militia leaders for ordering the assassination of protest leaders and other human rights abuses. home.treasury.gov/news/press-rel…

@thomasjoscelyn "Among those designated last month was Qais Khazali, an Iran-backed terrorist once held by the US government but freed by the Obama administration in a late-2009 hostage swap. Khazali was one of the militia leaders who helped orchestrate the violent protests at the U.S. Embassy"

@thomasjoscelyn If the handling of Qais Khazali illustrates the stark differences in approach between the Obama and Trump administrations, so does the treatment of Qassem Suleimani.

@thomasjoscelyn As a precondition to the Iranians signing on to the Iran Nuclear Deal) in 2015, the Obama admin agreed to lift existing sanctions on Suleimani after 8 years, despite his long record of directing Iran’s terror apparatus, provided Iran abided by the terms of the accord.

@thomasjoscelyn Pompeo wouldn't answer a question from Fox News' @MikeEmanuelFox about the US withdrawing troops b/c Pompeo understands that a full withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq would be catastrophic. But he also understands that Trump’s instincts pull him strongly in the other direction.

@thomasjoscelyn @MikeEmanuelFox Iran’s leaders have vowed to avenge Suleimani’s death. How? Suleimani may have previewed the next wave of U.S.-Iran conflict in a provocative speech he gave in July 2018.

@thomasjoscelyn @MikeEmanuelFox "We are closer to you than what you think,” Suleimani warned, boasting of the power and reach of the Quds Force. “You are aware of Iran's power in asymmetric war."

@thomasjoscelyn @MikeEmanuelFox For more background on the Suleimani killing, go here: thedispatch.com/p/the-morning-…

@thomasjoscelyn @MikeEmanuelFox And to sign up for news and analysis from @thedispatch, go here: thedispatch.com