Thread by @JJSchroden

Today begins my course on "Military Power & Effectiveness" @ElliottSchoolGW. In this THREAD, I'll be posting each week what we're reading for those who want to follow along at home.

1/n

@ElliottSchoolGW Wk 1/Course Intro: We'll discuss why this topic matters (practically & for IR theories) & what ignorance of it can do to foreign policy predictions.

Reading: Jacob Weisberg, “Gulfballs: How the Experts Blew It, Big-Time,” New Republic 204, no. 12 (March 25, 1991), pp. 17-19. 2/n

@ElliottSchoolGW Wk 2/Definitions: We discussed why it's easy to define military effectiveness in theory (as the conversion of resources into fighting power), but WAAAAY harder to successfully do that in practice. We also played THE FEUD!! 3/n

@ElliottSchoolGW Readings:
1. Allen R. Millett & Williamson Murray, Military Effectiveness, Vol. 1 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2010), Chap 1.
2. Stephen Biddle, Military Power: Explaining Victory & Defeat in Modern Battle (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 2004), p. 5-9 4/n

@ElliottSchoolGW 3. @ProfTalmadge, The Dictator’s Army: Battlefield Effectiveness in Authoritarian Regimes (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell Univ Press, 2015), p. 1-11. 5/n

@ElliottSchoolGW @ProfTalmadge 4. @RisaBrooks12, “Introduction,” in Risa A. Brooks & Elizabeth A. Stanley, eds., Creating Military Power: The Sources of Military Effectiveness (Stanford: Stanford Univ Press, 2007), p. 1-26. 6/n

@ElliottSchoolGW @ProfTalmadge @RisaBrooks12 5. @CastilloJasen, Endurance & War: The Nat'l Sources of Military Cohesion (Stanford, Calif.: Stanford Univ Press, 2014), p. 17-22

We ended by pulling together the various elements of effectiveness we discussed into a "grand unified framework" to guide the rest of the course 7/n

@ElliottSchoolGW @ProfTalmadge @RisaBrooks12 @CastilloJasen Wk 3/Military Size: We discussed various theories/rules of thumb/approaches to thinking about military size & its relation (or not) to outcomes on the battlefield.

We also played the SHOWCASE SHOWDOWN! 8/n

@ElliottSchoolGW @ProfTalmadge @RisaBrooks12 @CastilloJasen Req'd readings:
1. John J. Mearsheimer, “Assessing the Conventional Balance: The 3:1 Rule and Its Critics,” Int'l Security 13, no. 4 (Spring 1989): 54-89.
2. John W.R. Lepingwell, “The Laws of Combat? Lanchester Reexamined,” Int'l Security 12, no. 1 (Summer 1987): pp. 89-134. 9/n

@ElliottSchoolGW @ProfTalmadge @RisaBrooks12 @CastilloJasen 3. Jeffrey Friedman, “Manpower and Counterinsurgency: Empirical Foundations for Theory and Doctrine,” Security Studies 20, no. 4 (November 2011): pp. 556-591.

10/n

@ElliottSchoolGW @ProfTalmadge @RisaBrooks12 @CastilloJasen 4. Jonathan Schroden, et al., Independent Assessment of the Afghan National Security Forces, @CNA_org, DRM-2014-U-006815-Final, January 2014. Skim-do not read in depth-pp. 43-146. apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fullte…

11/n

@ElliottSchoolGW @ProfTalmadge @RisaBrooks12 @CastilloJasen @CNA_org Recommended readings:
1. @USGAO, “Defense Strategy: Revised Analytic Approach Needed to Support Force Structure Decision-Making,” GAO-19-385, March 2019. gao.gov/products/GAO-1…

12/n

@ElliottSchoolGW @ProfTalmadge @RisaBrooks12 @CastilloJasen @CNA_org @USGAO 2. John J. McGrath, Boots on the Ground: Troop Density in Contingency Operations (Fort Leavenworth, KA: Combat Studies Institute Press, 2006), Chaps 1 & 4. armyupress.army.mil/Portals/7/comb…

13/n

@ElliottSchoolGW @ProfTalmadge @RisaBrooks12 @CastilloJasen @CNA_org @USGAO 3. John J. McGrath, The Other End of the Spear: The Tooth-to-Tail Ratio (T3R) in Modern Military Operations (Fort Leavenworth, KA: Combat Studies Institute Press, 2007), Chapters 1, 3, and 4. armyupress.army.mil/Portals/7/comb…

Next week: Military Resources!

14/n

@ElliottSchoolGW @ProfTalmadge @RisaBrooks12 @CastilloJasen @CNA_org @USGAO Wk 4/Military Resources: This week we examined how to think about resources (e.g., money, materiel)--their conversion into military power & relation to military outcomes. We also examined the interplay between resources & doctrine (e.g., theories of victory). 15/n

@ElliottSchoolGW @ProfTalmadge @RisaBrooks12 @CastilloJasen @CNA_org @USGAO Required readings:
1. John J. Mearsheimer, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics (New York: Norton, 2001), Chap 3.
2. Barry R. Posen, “Measuring the European Conventional Balance: Coping w/Complexity in Threat Assessment,” Int'l Security 9, no. 3 (Winter 1984/85): pp. 47-88. 16/n

@ElliottSchoolGW @ProfTalmadge @RisaBrooks12 @CastilloJasen @CNA_org @USGAO 3. Paul Bracken, “Net Assessment: A Practical Guide,” Parameters (Spring 2006), pp. 90-100. 17/n

@ElliottSchoolGW @ProfTalmadge @RisaBrooks12 @CastilloJasen @CNA_org @USGAO 4. Rosella Cappella Zielinski, “War Finance and Military Effectiveness,” in Dan Reiter, ed., The Sword’s Other Edge: Trade-offs in the Pursuit of Military Effectiveness (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2017), pp. 58-87. 18/n

@ElliottSchoolGW @ProfTalmadge @RisaBrooks12 @CastilloJasen @CNA_org @USGAO Recommended reading:
1. Charles L. Glaser and Chaim Kaufmann, “What Is the Offense-Defense Balance and How Can We Measure It?” International Security 22, no. 4 (Spring 1998): pp. 44-82.

Next week: Force Employment!

19/n

@ElliottSchoolGW @ProfTalmadge @RisaBrooks12 @CastilloJasen @CNA_org @USGAO Wk 5/Force Employment (Part 1): We examined classic & modern versions of employing military forces (at operational and tactical levels), in both the offense and defense. 20/n

@ElliottSchoolGW @ProfTalmadge @RisaBrooks12 @CastilloJasen @CNA_org @USGAO Required readings:

John J. Mearsheimer, Conventional Deterrence (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell Univ Press, 1983), Chap 2.

Stephen Biddle, Military Power: Explaining Victory and Defeat in Modern Battle (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton Univ Press, 2004).

Next wk: COIN & Special Ops! 21/n

@ElliottSchoolGW @ProfTalmadge @RisaBrooks12 @CastilloJasen @CNA_org @USGAO Wk 6/Force Employment (Part 2): We discussed approaches to countering "cold" & "hot" revolutionary insurgencies & Galula's theory of "counterinsurgent power." Also McRaven's theory of special (hyper-conventional?) operations.

And the class was kind enough to bear w/my cold. 22/n

@ElliottSchoolGW @ProfTalmadge @RisaBrooks12 @CastilloJasen @CNA_org @USGAO Required readings:
- David Galula, Counterinsurgency Warfare: Theory & Practice (Westport, CT: Praeger Security Int'l), Chaps 4 & 5.
- William H. McRaven, The Theory of Special Operations (Monterey, CA: Naval Postgraduate School, 1993), Chaps 1 & 10.

Next week: Regime Type! 23/n

@ElliottSchoolGW @ProfTalmadge @RisaBrooks12 @CastilloJasen @CNA_org @USGAO Wk 7/Regime Type: We examined whether regime type (e.g., democracies vs autocracies) has explanatory power for war initiation and war outcome trends.

Required readings:
- Dan Reiter & Allan C. Stam, Democracies at War (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton Univ Press, 2002), Chaps 2-3 24/n

@ElliottSchoolGW @ProfTalmadge @RisaBrooks12 @CastilloJasen @CNA_org @USGAO - @RisaBrooks12, “Making Military Might: Why Do States Fail and Succeed: A Review Essay,” Int'l Sec 28, no 2 (Fall 2003): 149-191.
- Alexander B. Downes, “How Smart and Tough Are Democracies? Reassessing Theories of Democratic Victory,” Int'l Sec 33, no 4 (Spring 2009): 7-51 25/n

@ElliottSchoolGW @ProfTalmadge @RisaBrooks12 @CastilloJasen @CNA_org @USGAO - Jessica L.P. Weeks, Dictators at War and Peace (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 2014), Chapters 1-3.
- Jonathan D. Caverley, “The Myth of Military Myopia: Democracy, Small Wars, and Vietnam,” International Security 34, no. 3 (Winter 2009/10): pp. 119-57. 26/n

@ElliottSchoolGW @ProfTalmadge @RisaBrooks12 @CastilloJasen @CNA_org @USGAO Recommended readings:
- Correspondence between Reiter and Stam and Downes in International Security 34, no. 2 (Fall 2009): pp. 194-204.
- Michael C. Desch, “Democracy and Victory: Why Regime Type Hardly Matters,” International Security 27, no. 2 (Fall 2002): pp. 5-47. 27/n

@ElliottSchoolGW @ProfTalmadge @RisaBrooks12 @CastilloJasen @CNA_org @USGAO - Stephen Biddle & Stephen Long, “Democracy and Military Effectiveness: A Deeper Look,” Journal of Conflict Resolution 48, no 4 (August 2004): 525-546.
- Michael C. Desch, Power and Military Effectiveness: The Fallacy of Democratic Triumphalism (Balt, Md.: JHU Press, 2008). 28/n

@ElliottSchoolGW @ProfTalmadge @RisaBrooks12 @CastilloJasen @CNA_org @USGAO - Michael Beckley, “Economic Development and Military Effectiveness,” Journal of Strategic Studies 33, no. 1 (February 2010): pp. 43-79.

Next week: Civ-Mil Relations!

29/n

Wk 8/Civ-Mil Relations: We discussed how civ-mil relations fits into our "grand unified framework" of military power & effectiveness--as a conversion variable between the political/strategic & operational levels of war. 30/n

Required readings:
- @RisaBrooks12, Shaping Strategy: The Civil-Military Politics of Strategic Assessment (Princeton, NJ: Princeton Univ Press, 2008).

31/n

- Vipin Narang & @ProfTalmadge, “Civil-Military Pathologies and Defeat in War: Tests Using New Data,” Journal of Conflict Resolution 62, no 7 (Aug 2018): 1379-1405.

32/n

Recommended readings/audio:
- Ulrich Pilster and Tobias Böhmelt, “Coup-Proofing and Military Effectiveness in Interstate Wars, 1967-99,” Conflict Management and Peace Science 28, no. 4 (2011): 331-50.

33/n

- @RisaBrooks12, Peter Feaver, @jimgolby, @ahfdc, & @EvansRyan202, “The (Four) Stars and the State: Civil-Military Affairs in 2019," Nov. 11, 2019, podcast available at: warontherocks.com/2019/11/the-fo…

Next week: Military Culture!

34/n

Wk 9/Military Culture: We discussed several organizational culture theories and how they impact military effectiveness, as a conversion variable between the units, materiel, and ideas that militaries have and the ways in which they use them on the battlefield. 35/n

Required readings:
- Austin Long, The Soul of Armies: Counterinsurgency Doctrine and Military Culture in the US and UK (Ithaca, NY: Cornell Univ Press, 2016), Chaps 1-4, 6-7, 9.
- Elizabeth Kier, Imagining War (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton Univ Press, 1997), pp. 27-32, 70-88. 36/n

- @WarProf, “Global Norms and Military Effectiveness: The Army in Early Twentieth-Century Ireland,” in @RisaBrooks12 and Elizabeth A. Stanley, eds., Creating Military Power: The Sources of Military Effectiveness (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 2007), pp. 136-157. 37/n

Recommended reading:
- Andrew F. Krepinevich, The Army and Vietnam (Baltimore, Md.: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1986).

Next week is spring break. Then, Small Unit Cohesion!

38/n

Wk 11/Small Unit Cohesion: 1st class online, so we ironed out the kinks (turns out the prof has to push some buttons to enable mics & cams!). Then we discussed types of unit cohesion & whether/how they matter for military effectiveness. Not as straightforward as many think! 39/n

Req'd readings:
- Edward Shils & Morris Janowitz, “Cohesion and Disintegration in the Wehrmacht in World War II,” Public Opinion Qrtly 12 no 2 (Summer 1948): 280-315
- Omer Bartov, Hitler’s Army: Soldiers, Nazis, and War in the Third Reich (NY:Oxford Univ Press, 1992) 29-58. 40/n

- Stephen G. Fritz, “‘We are trying … to change the face of the world’—Ideology and Motivation in the Wehrmacht on the Eastern Front: The View from Below,” Journal of Military History 60, no. 4 (October 1996): pp. 683-710. 41/n

- Elizabeth Kier, “Homosexuals in the US Military:Open Integration and Combat Effectiveness,” Int'l Sec 23, no 2 (Fall 1998): 5-39
- Anthony King, “On Combat Effectiveness in the Infantry Platoon: Beyond the Primary Group Thesis,” Sec Studies 25, no 4 (Oct-Dec 2016): 699-728 42/n

- Alexander B. Downes, “Would Transgender Troops Harm Military Effectiveness? Here’s What the Research Says,” The Washington Post Monkey Cage, August 1, 2017. 43/n

Recommended readings:
- Robert Macoun, “What Is Known about Unit Cohesion and Military Performance,” in Sexual Orientation and U.S. Military Personnel Policy: Options and Assessment (Santa Monica, Calif.: @RANDCorporation, 1993), pp. 283-331. 44/n

- Robert J. Macoun and William M. Hix, “Unit Cohesion and Military Performance,” in Sexual Orientation and U.S. Military Personnel Policy: An Update of RAND’s 1993 Study (Santa Monica, Calif.: @RANDCorporation, 2010), pp. 137-65. 45/n

- Agnes Gereben Schaefer et al., Assessing the Implications of Allowing Transgender Personnel to Serve Openly (Santa Monica, Calif.: @RANDCorporation, 2016).

Next week: Military Innovation & Adaptation!

46/n

Wk 12/Military Innovation & Adaptation: We discussed the differences in these ideas, how they apply specifically to militaries & military outcomes, & what the literature has to say about how military innovation & adaptation come about. 47/n

Required readings:
- Adam Grissom, “The Future of Military Innovation Studies,” J of Strat Studies 29, no 5 (Oct 2006): 905-934.
- Barry Posen, Sources of Military Doctrine: France, Britain, & Germany between the World Wars, (Ithaca NY: Cornell U Press, 1984), Chaps 1-2. 48/n

- Stephen Peter Rosen, Winning the Next War: Innovation and the Modern Military (Ithaca NY: Cornell University Press, 1994), Chaps 1-3.

49/n

@WarProf, “Military Adaptation in War” & “Back from the Brink: British Military Adaptation and the Struggle for Helmand, 2006-2011,” in Military Adaptation in Afghanistan, ed. Farrell, Osinga, and Russell (Stanford, CA.: Stanford Univ Press, 2013), p. 1-24. 50/n

Recommended readings:
- S. Griffin, “Military Innovation Studies: Multidisciplinary or Lacking Discipline?” J of Strat Studies 40, nos 1-2 (2017): 196-224
- R. Grauer, Commanding Military Power: Organizing for Victory & Defeat on the Battlefield (Cambridge U Press, 2016). 51/n

- Nina A. Kollars, “Military Innovation’s Dialectic: Gun Trucks and Rapid Acquisition,” Security Studies 23, no. 4 (2014): pp. 787-813.
- Nina A. Kollars, “War’s Horizon: Soldier-Led Adaptation in Iraq and Vietnam,” Journal of Strategic Studies 38, no. 4 (2015): pp. 529-553. 52/n

- Harvey M. Sapolsky, “On the Theory of Military Innovation,” Breakthroughs 9, no. 1 (Spring 2000): pp. 35-39.

Next week: Military Assessment!

53/n

Wk 13/Military Assessment: Most literature on military effectiveness is a priori or focused on post hoc outcomes--but how do you assess military effectiveness (from tactical to strategic levels) in real time? We discussed a few examples/theories of how to do it. 54/n

Required readings:
- Scott Sigmund Gartner, Strategic Assessment in War (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1997).
- Jonathan Schroden, “Measures for Security in a Counterinsurgency,” Journal of Strategic Studies 32, No. 5 (October 2009), pp. 715–744. 55/n

- Emily Mushen & Jonathan Schroden, Are We Winning? A Brief History of Military Operations Assessment, @CNA_org DOP-2014-U-008512-1Rev, Sep 2014

Recommended:
- DOD, Joint Pub 5-0: Joint Planning, June 16, 2017, Chap VI; read pp. VI-1 to VI-23, skim pp. VI-24 to VI-41. 56/n

- DOD Instruction 5132.14, “Assessment Monitoring, and Evaluation Policy for the Security Cooperation Enterprise,” January 13, 2017.

Next week: Case study on the US in #Afghanistan (2001-present)!

57/n

Wk 14/Case study on the US in #Afghanistan since 2001: Each student presented their thoughts on the US experience through the lens of one of the theories of military power/effectiveness that we've learned about over the course of the semester. 58/n

Recommended readings:
- Cong Research Serv “Department of Defense Contractor and Troop Levels in Afghanistan and Iraq: 2007-2018” CRS Report R44116, May 10, 2019
- Megan Katt “Blurred Lines: Cultural Support Teams in Afghanistan” Joint Forces Qtrly 75 (4th Q 2014) p 106-113 59/n

- Neta Crawford, “United States Budgetary Costs of the Post-9/11 Wars Through FY2019: $5.9 Trillion Spent and Obligated,” Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs, Brown University, November 14, 2018.
- Austin Long, The Soul of Armies, Chapter 10. 60/n

- Francis G. Hoffman, “Strategic Assessment and Adaptation: Reassessing the Afghanistan Surge Decision,” @NavalWarCollege Review 69, No. 3 (Summer 2016), pp. 45-64
- @and_huh_what, “Taliban Fragmentation: A Figment of Your Imagination?” @WarOnTheRocks, September 4, 2019. 61/n

- The White House, “White Paper of the Interagency Policy Group’s Report on U.S. Policy toward Afghanistan and Pakistan,” March 27, 2009 (foreignpolicy.com/2009/03/27/whi…)
- Thomas H. Johnson, “Taliban Adaptations and Innovations,” Small Wars and Insurgencies 24, No. 1 (2013), p 3-27 62/n

- Stephen Downes-Martin, “Operations Assessment in Afghanistan is Broken: What is to be Done?” @NavalWarCollege Review 64, No. 4 (Autumn 2011), pp. 103-125.
- Jonathan Schroden, “Military Pressure and Body Counts in Afghanistan,” @WarOnTheRocks, May 17, 2019. 63/n

- Ben Connable, Embracing the Fog of War: Assessment and Metrics in Counterinsurgency (Santa Monica, CA: @RANDCorporation, 2012), Chapter 7.

Next week--last class: The future of military power & effectiveness! 64/n

Wk 15/The Future of Military Power & Effectiveness: Each student presented their thoughts on how military power might change in the future through the lens of one/more of the theories of military power/effectiveness that we've learned about over the course of the semester. 65/n

Recommended readings:
- Jacquelyn Schneider, “The Capability/Vulnerability Paradox and Military Revolutions: Implications for Computing, Cyber, and the Onset of War,” Journal of Strategic Studies 42, No. 6 (2019), pp. 841-863. 66/n

- Kirstin J.H. Brathwaite and Margarita Konaev, “War in the City: Urban Ethnic Geography and Combat Effectiveness,” Journal of Strategic Studies (2019).
- @RisaBrooks12, “Technology and Future War Will Test U.S. Civil-Military Relations,” @WarOnTheRocks, November 26, 2018. 67/n

- Michael Beckley, “In Future Wars, the U.S. Military Will Have Nowhere to Hide,” @ForeignPolicy, November 20, 2019.
- @Tmgneff & @MujMash, “In Afghanistan’s War and Peace, WhatsApp Delivers the Message,” @nytimes, October 26, 2019. 68/n

- @SpencerGuard, “From Army of One to Band of Tweeters,” @nytimes, November 5, 2015.
- @DonRassler, The Islamic State and Drones, @CTCWP, July 2018.
- Thomas Zeitzoff, “How Social Media is Changing Conflict,” Journal of Conflict Resolution (2017), pp. 1-22. 69/n

@Verleza, Megan McBride, and @kate_hberg, Exploring the Utility of Memes for U.S. Government Influence Campaigns, @CNA_org DRM-2018-U-017433-Final, April 2018 (cna.org/CNA_files/PDF/…). 70/n

- Michael C. Horowitz, “Military Robotics, Autonomous Systems, and the Future of Military Effectiveness,” in Dan Reiter, ed., The Sword’s Other Edge: Trade-offs in the Pursuit of Military Effectiveness (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2017), pp. 197-226. 71/n

- Filippo Andreatta, “Conclusion: The Complexity of Military Effectiveness,” in Dan Reiter, ed., The Sword’s Other Edge: Trade-offs in the Pursuit of Military Effectiveness (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2017), pp. 254-267. 72/n

And that's the end of the course. Hope you enjoyed following along at home! 73/73