Welcome to #AFGPanel and Ramadan Mubarak to all celebrating the holy month! 1/n
Since our last panel, we’ve seen #Afghanistan’s govt & the #Taliban finally exchange prisoners as a confidence-building measure for the peace process, albeit in small numbers. But we’ve also seen an uptick in violence & the number of #COVID19 cases. 2/n
In the meantime, Afghan leaders @ashrafghani & @DrabdullahCE still haven’t been able to form an inclusive government & the threat of a massive US aid reduction continues to hang over the country as a result. #AFGPanel 3/n
In addition, the debate over the nature of #Afghanistan’s government and constitutional distribution of powers was reinvigorated by a recent op-ed in the @nytimes by @AhmadMassoudoff. #AFGPanel 4/n
nytimes.com/2020/04/14/opi…
nytimes.com/2020/04/14/opi…
For the next hour, I have the distinct honor of hosting a discussion on these issues with some impressive panelists. We’ll discuss the US-#Taliban agreement, the nature of governance in #Afghanistan today, & the impact of #COVID19, along w/answering your Qs. #AFGPanel 5/n
Our panelists, in order of tweeting appearance, are: @Afghan_Policy, who consults at various govt levels in #Australia, is a long-time observer of #Afghanistan politics, & wrote a great paper on the US-#Taliban agreement for @AISS_Afg. #AFGPanel 6/n
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.@a_a_jackson, Research Associate @ODIdev, who has done a lot of fantastic work on local governance in #Afghanistan & recently completed her dissertation @warstudies! #AFGPanel 7/n foreignpolicy.com/2018/09/12/the…
& @JarrettBlanc, Senior Fellow @CarnegieEndow, former coordinator @StateDept for the JCPOA & former acting special representative for #Afghanistan & #Pakistan—who just published a great article on AFG & #COVID19. #AFGPanel 8/n carnegieendowment.org/2020/04/14/afg…
Before I turn it over to the panelists, here’s how we’ll be doing the discussion: each panelist will begin with an opening tweet thread—I’ll link to those in this thread. After their opening remarks, I’ll moderate a Q&A. #AFGPanel 9/n
PLEASE DM ME YOUR QUESTIONS so I can pose them to the panel in an ordered way. If you reply directly in this or the panelists’ threads, we may not respond. Also, please be civil & respectful in your Qs/comments. #AFGPanel 10/n
With that, I’ll ask @Afghan_Policy to kick off the discussion with his opening thread! #AFGPanel 11/n
Many thanks for those insightful thoughts @Afghan_Policy! I’d like to next ask @a_a_jackson to provide her opening thread. #AFGPanel 13/n
Many thanks to @a_a_jackson for those insights! I’d like to next ask @JarrettBlanc to provide his opening thread. #AFGPanel 15/n
I’d now like to open the Q&A portion of our discussion. We have a lot of great Qs that have come via DM over the past few days! I’ll post the Qs & link to the As in this thread. #AFGPanel 18/n
1st Q is for @Afghan_Policy: What do you see as a workable dispute resolution mechanism for the peace talks? Some have suggested the possibility of a third party mediator. Do you think that would work? Who could effectively play that role? #AFGPanel 19/n
2nd Q is for @a_a_jackson: What role does #Afghanistan's Independent Directorate of Local Governance (IDLG) play in terms of either improving or worsening local governance? #AFGPanel 20/n
3rd Q is for @JarrettBlanc: In #Afghanistan there’s a new trend initiated by @FForotan where Afghans speak about their red lines for the return of the #Taliban. What do you think are the USG red lines regarding the TB & a peace settlement? #AFGPanel 21/n
4th Q is for @a_a_jackson: What evidence is there that the intractable problems characterizing the Afghan central govt will not be replicated at the local level? In the absence of a reliable census or economic surveys, how do you effectively decentralize power? #AFGPanel 22/n
5th Q is for @JarrettBlanc: How do you see #Iran's possible role as a spoiler in the peace process, should tensions continue to mount between it and Washington? Is there anything #Afghanistan can do to mitigate this situation? #AFGPanel 23/n
6th Q is for @Afghan_Policy: Suppose 5k prisoners are released but later the US-#Taliban agreement is broken—how does the agreement address this risk? 5k fighters could intensify the war & leave the govt with reduced bargaining power. #AFGPanel 24/n
7th Q is for @a_a_jackson: When the #ANDSF are successful in recapturing areas from the #Taliban, what kind of reception is the govt of #Afghanistan getting in those areas? #AFGPanel 25/n
8th Q is for @JarrettBlanc: What is the best possible deal that can be reached between @ashrafghani & @DrabdullahCE? And in the USG’s view, what does a good deal between them look like? #AFGPanel 26/n
9th Q is for @a_a_jackson: What methods would you consider to be most successful in countering corruption at district/local levels in #Afghanistan? What accountability avenues exist in regards to reporting local government abuse/corruption? #AFGPanel 27/n
10th Q is for @Afghan_Policy: IRT identity consciousness among the Afghan #Taliban on the basis of Kandahari and non-Kandahari: Do you think this can damage cohesion of the TB after they get representation in the future government of #Afghanistan? #AFGPanel 28/n
11th Q is for @JarrettBlanc: What are the best & worst case, & most likely scenarios over the next 6-12 months in #Afghanistan? What is the potential for Kabul falling to the #Taliban a la Saigon? #AFGPanel 29/n
12 Q is for @a_a_jackson: What govt mechanisms are there in #Afghanistan to ensure local arrangements will equitably treat women, minorities, & the weak? What will prevent local elites from capturing a disproportionate share of devolved resources and authority? #AFGPanel 30/n
13th Q is for @JarrettBlanc: What do you see as the biggest necessary compromises on the part of #Afghanistan’s govt & the #Taliban in order to get to a lasting peace agreement? #AFGPanel 31/n
14th Q is for @Afghan_Policy: What does a power-sharing agreement b/w #Afghanistan's government and Afghan #Taliban mean for the latter's relationship with the Pakistani Taliban (Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan)? #AFGPanel 32/n
15th Q is for @a_a_jackson: What is the most successful example of former insurgents breaking with criminality and illicit economic activities? How would that example apply to the #Taliban? #AFGPanel 33/n
I can’t believe how fast that time went! This was a fascinating discussion & I *really* appreciate your attention & the time of our amazing panelists. Please join me in thanking them for their insights! #AFGPanel 34/n
And my sincere apologies if we didn’t get to your Q—there was a long queue, which again reflects the excellence of our panel’s works and experience. #AFGPanel 35/n
With that, I’ll close the panel. Please take care of yourselves/others & stay healthy! #AFGPanel 36/36
