Thread by @JECDems

(1/) At the president’s #SOTU address, we should be prepared for a torrent of false or misleading statements on every issue. Some of his key claims about the economy are in this tweet, which packs a lot of misinformation into less than 250 characters.

(2/) The Washington Post’s Fact Checker has found that Donald Trump has made more than 1,500 false or misleading claims about the economy since he became president. We should expect more of the same at the #SOTU
washingtonpost.com/graphics/polit…

(3/) The president’s primary deception about the economy is to claim that he inherited a “dismal” economy from Barack Obama, and he turned it around. This is false—the economy was already strong when he became president—and it was trending even stronger.

(4/) So let’s unpack the claims in the president’s tweet, and see why it’s misleading to the core.

(5/) Trump tweet: “unemployment is at the lowest level in more than 50 years.”

True in a literal sense—unemployment last hit 3.5% in 1969. But the president’s comment is very misleading because he implies that he deserves all the credit.

(6/) Unemployment had been more than cut in half from 10% to 4.7% under Obama—and it was still trending down when Trump became president. Moreover, it continued to fall to 4.1% *before* enactment of the president’s signature economic policy—the 2017 tax cuts.

(7/) Trump: “We have created over 7 MILLION new JOBS.”

Writing in ALL CAPS doesn’t lend credibility to a misleading statement. Moreover, presidents don’t create jobs, but they help set the conditions that encourage businesses to create jobs.

(8/) For example, Obama created conditions for recovery from the Great Recession by preventing the meltdown of the financial system, passing a massive economic stimulus bill and saving the auto industry.

(9/) Economists Alan Blinder and Mark Zandi found that without this response, the recession would have lasted 2x as long, job losses would have been 2x as high and the drop in GDP would have been more than 3x worse.
cbpp.org/sites/default/…

(10/) On the other hand, there is little evidence that Trump’s tax cuts did much to “create” jobs faster than they already were being created. And his trade war likely has destroyed jobs.
cbsnews.com/news/trumps-tr…

(11/) Regarding the president’s claim itself—although it’s true that almost 7M jobs have been created since Trump became president 3 years ago, this falls short of the more than 8M jobs created in the last 3 years of Obama. Touting this achievement in ALL CAPS is misleading.

(12/) Trump: “More Americans are working today than EVER before.”

Yes, because there are more people in the United States than ever before. Pretty straightforward. Higher population leads to more people with jobs.

(13/) Trump’s claim looks a lot less impressive when we look at the *percentage* of Americans who are working. The increase is just about one percentage point—from 59.9% in Jan. 2017 to 61.0% in Dec. 2019.

A pretty weak result for almost $2 trillion in tax cuts.

(14/) Trump: “We have the hottest ECONOMY on earth!”

The American economy is strong, but 2.1% (Q4 2019) growth is hardly “hot.” The CBO projects average growth of just 1.7% from 2021 to 2030.

Word choice: not “hot” but “lukewarm.”

(15/) Trump’s signature economic major policy, his $1.9 trillion tax cuts, provided a minor boost to the economy at a massive cost. It’s like vastly overpaying for a shiny object, like an Atlantic City casino—a bad deal.

(16/) His 2nd major economic policy, the trade war, has been a bust.

It has created casualties on both sides. It has hurt American businesses, devastated farmers, cost jobs & increased prices. It will reduce avg real household income by nearly $1,300 in 2020, according to CBO.

npr.org/sections/thesa…

(17/) Recap: Taken as a whole, Trump’s tweet is a mountain of misinformation. Every sentence is deeply misleading. The central claim—that he is responsible for the strong economy—is false.

(18/) The economy is strong due to factors beyond Trump, like pre-existing trends inherited from Obama, and the ingenuity and hard work of American workers. Business owners and workers would be right to be steamed at Trump’s claims that he “created” jobs.

(19/) Trump: “Thanks to our pro-worker, pro-American economic policies…”

Neither the president’s reckless trade war nor his extremely expensive tax cuts are “pro-worker” or particularly “pro-American.” So is there anything that isn’t misleading in his tweet? Not much.

(20/) The president will devote far more words to the economy at the #SOTU than in his 250-character tweet, so expect to be inundated with false or misleading information. The fact-checkers will have a hard time keeping up.

(21/) To learn more about how the president’s claims about the economy conflict with reality, see this succinct JEC primer: bit.ly/Key-Points

(22/) Or find out more about how the president’s claim that he turned around a “dismal” economy is wrong: bit.ly/JECEconomy2019

(23/) You’ll be well-armed when you watch what the president says about the economy in his #SOTU address. Much of it will be wrong—and you’ll know why.