@jonst0kes @DrEricDing "If someone can point to instances of him spreading things that are demonstrably false, then please hit me up with examples. This is a non-rhetorical request."
I hope you're sincere... Here goes. After this, I don't have time to put into rebutting these things. 1/n
I hope you're sincere... Here goes. After this, I don't have time to put into rebutting these things. 1/n
@jonst0kes @DrEricDing 2/ When he posted R0=3.8, the authors of the study he cited had already publicly retracted that number because of new data and replaced it (I believe with 2.6). When people replied with this, he hid the replies and continued to say 3.8.
@jonst0kes @DrEricDing 3/ When people suggested experts to follow for context on R0, he hid those replies. He (finally) mentioned other papers that found values around 2.5, but pretended there was a false controversy between one group claiming 3.8 [they claimed 2.6] and others claiming ~2.5.
@jonst0kes @DrEricDing 4/ When he posted that 3.8 was about 8x that of SARS, this was based on him thinking SARS had an R0 of 0.5 (it was probably around 3).
@jonst0kes @DrEricDing 5/ An R0 of 0.5 would imply the expected size of the SARS epidemic would have been 2 infections total. It infected over 8000. No one who is qualified to comment on R0 could ever make that mistake.
@jonst0kes @DrEricDing 6/ His analysis of what an R0 of 3.8 meant was false. "How bad is that reproductive R0 value? It is thermonuclear pandemic level bad—never seen an actual virality coefficient outside of Twitter in my entire career. I’m not exaggerating... [quote continues]
@jonst0kes @DrEricDing 7/ "... the most virulent virus epidemic the world has ever seen."
The ongoing Ebola epidemic is much more virulent.
Nipah is much more virulent.
MERS is much more virulent.
SARS was much more virulent.
1918 pandemic influenza was much more virulent.
The ongoing Ebola epidemic is much more virulent.
Nipah is much more virulent.
MERS is much more virulent.
SARS was much more virulent.
1918 pandemic influenza was much more virulent.
@jonst0kes @DrEricDing 8/ If we assume he meant "highest R0" rather than "most virulent", this is not the highest "in [his] entire career. [He's] not exaggerating."
SARS may have had a higher R0.
The common cold, measles (R0=*20*), whooping cough all have comparable or higher R0.
SARS may have had a higher R0.
The common cold, measles (R0=*20*), whooping cough all have comparable or higher R0.
@jonst0kes @DrEricDing 9/ Let's look at that reference to his "entire career".
His "career" is why people people pay special attention to him over other internet crackpots.
His implied expertise gives credibility to his claim "the most virulent virus epidemic the world has ever seen".
His "career" is why people people pay special attention to him over other internet crackpots.
His implied expertise gives credibility to his claim "the most virulent virus epidemic the world has ever seen".
@jonst0kes @DrEricDing 10/ What sort of R0s has he seen in his career so that we can give context to his claim:
"How bad is that reproductive R0 value? It is thermonuclear pandemic level bad—never seen an actual virality coefficient outside of Twitter in my entire career. I’m not exaggerating..."
"How bad is that reproductive R0 value? It is thermonuclear pandemic level bad—never seen an actual virality coefficient outside of Twitter in my entire career. I’m not exaggerating..."
@jonst0kes @DrEricDing 11/ He studies noninfectious disease.
He's never seen R0>0 in his entire career.
He's never seen R0>0 in his entire career.
@jonst0kes @DrEricDing 12/ How does this compare to the viral epidemics the world has seen?
The history of infectious disease has had terrifying things.
For both virulence and R0, think about smallpox in the Native American and Aboriginal Australian populations, or HIV in subSaharan Africa.
The history of infectious disease has had terrifying things.
For both virulence and R0, think about smallpox in the Native American and Aboriginal Australian populations, or HIV in subSaharan Africa.
@jonst0kes @DrEricDing 13/ The world has seen truly terrifying viral epidemics. Stock up on food and shoot anyone who approaches levels of terrifying.
And he's implying this disease is worse than all of those.
And he's implying this disease is worse than all of those.
@jonst0kes @DrEricDing 14/
His claims have credibility to members of the public on the basis of 2 things:
1) His "career" as a "Harvard Epidemiologist"
2) an already retracted preprint that he continued to quote even after knowing it was retracted.
His claims have credibility to members of the public on the basis of 2 things:
1) His "career" as a "Harvard Epidemiologist"
2) an already retracted preprint that he continued to quote even after knowing it was retracted.
@jonst0kes @DrEricDing 15/ Lots more to say about falsehoods in those initial tweets, but let's move on.
When he posted the obviously false bioweapon claims he led with many uncritical tweets about the paper's supposed claims.
When he posted the obviously false bioweapon claims he led with many uncritical tweets about the paper's supposed claims.
@jonst0kes @DrEricDing 16/ Even his career in nutrition should have given him the quantitative tools to poke holes in that argument.
But the nature of twitter is that sensationalist or fake news tweets spread wider than rebuttals (and gain more followers).
I think he knows this.
But the nature of twitter is that sensationalist or fake news tweets spread wider than rebuttals (and gain more followers).
I think he knows this.
@jonst0kes @DrEricDing 17/
He eventually posted references to the debunking, but in a way that gave false equivalence to the bioweapon/not bioweapon claims.
Would reputable media lead with the claim that climate change isn't happening and then at the end say, "some scientists disagree"?
He eventually posted references to the debunking, but in a way that gave false equivalence to the bioweapon/not bioweapon claims.
Would reputable media lead with the claim that climate change isn't happening and then at the end say, "some scientists disagree"?
@jonst0kes @DrEricDing 18/
He falsely claimed that @mlipsitch and others were concerned about the bioweapon possibility.
He only deleted those tweets when the authors retracted their preprint.
He falsely claimed that @mlipsitch and others were concerned about the bioweapon possibility.
He only deleted those tweets when the authors retracted their preprint.
@jonst0kes @DrEricDing @mlipsitch 19/
His promotion of this conspiracy theory meant that actual experts in the field *still* have to waste their effort debunking that claim.
You probably would prefer if they put their effort into understanding other aspects of this disease right now.
His promotion of this conspiracy theory meant that actual experts in the field *still* have to waste their effort debunking that claim.
You probably would prefer if they put their effort into understanding other aspects of this disease right now.
@jonst0kes @DrEricDing @mlipsitch 20/
He posted "DELAYED 2 WEEKS: China didn’t release key genetic data on the coronavirus until about two weeks after it emerged that..."
Factually true, but the implication that China was hiding something is false.
He posted "DELAYED 2 WEEKS: China didn’t release key genetic data on the coronavirus until about two weeks after it emerged that..."
Factually true, but the implication that China was hiding something is false.
@jonst0kes @DrEricDing @mlipsitch 21/
No reasonable person who read the article would have reached the conclusion that this "delay" was nefarious.
He selected the only quote from that article that implied something, and not the many quotes that explicitly stated the opposite.
No reasonable person who read the article would have reached the conclusion that this "delay" was nefarious.
He selected the only quote from that article that implied something, and not the many quotes that explicitly stated the opposite.
@jonst0kes @DrEricDing @mlipsitch 22/
"I was simply quoting" is an admission of not being an expert, or worse:
Think of any topic you're an expert in and read a newspaper article about it.
What would lead you to post an out-of-context quote from that article that implies something false?
"I was simply quoting" is an admission of not being an expert, or worse:
Think of any topic you're an expert in and read a newspaper article about it.
What would lead you to post an out-of-context quote from that article that implies something false?
@jonst0kes @DrEricDing @mlipsitch 23/
If he didn't claim to have expertise, he would be one of the many crackpots posting false information about the spread of the disease, the severity of the disease, the origins of the disease, etc.
If he didn't claim to have expertise, he would be one of the many crackpots posting false information about the spread of the disease, the severity of the disease, the origins of the disease, etc.
@jonst0kes @DrEricDing @mlipsitch 24/
But he claims that his "career" gives him not just insight into infectious disease, but experience with infectious disease (remember, it's the highest R0 he's seen in his career)
His career is as close to infectious disease research as an electrician is to a plumber.
But he claims that his "career" gives him not just insight into infectious disease, but experience with infectious disease (remember, it's the highest R0 he's seen in his career)
His career is as close to infectious disease research as an electrician is to a plumber.
@jonst0kes @DrEricDing @mlipsitch 25/
If a plumber friend visited you, and saw an electrical problem, it would be appropriate for him to say:
"you've got a problem, and it could be dangerous, you need to get an electrician here quickly to deal with it."
That would be appropriate
If a plumber friend visited you, and saw an electrical problem, it would be appropriate for him to say:
"you've got a problem, and it could be dangerous, you need to get an electrician here quickly to deal with it."
That would be appropriate
@jonst0kes @DrEricDing @mlipsitch 26/
But imagine he instead started shouting: "This is the worst electrical problem I've seen in my career! Your house could explode at any minute! Get out!"
Then someone says "hey I know some electricians with experience on this", but he prevents you from hearing them.
But imagine he instead started shouting: "This is the worst electrical problem I've seen in my career! Your house could explode at any minute! Get out!"
Then someone says "hey I know some electricians with experience on this", but he prevents you from hearing them.
@jonst0kes @DrEricDing @mlipsitch 27/
Then an electrician happens to come by and says: "yes, you need to deal with this, it could be a problem. You're not in any immediate danger. Here's what the issue is... It's going to take time to fix, and I'm going to need to concentrate on it."
Then an electrician happens to come by and says: "yes, you need to deal with this, it could be a problem. You're not in any immediate danger. Here's what the issue is... It's going to take time to fix, and I'm going to need to concentrate on it."
@jonst0kes @DrEricDing @mlipsitch 28/
But your plumber friend (who yes, went to a highly respected trade school, but in *plumbing*) keeps interrupting.
He starts flipping breakers on and off while the electrician is trying to do the work...
But your plumber friend (who yes, went to a highly respected trade school, but in *plumbing*) keeps interrupting.
He starts flipping breakers on and off while the electrician is trying to do the work...
@jonst0kes @DrEricDing @mlipsitch 29/ The electrician is going to get pissed off.
He'll point out that a plumbing qualification from a highly respected trade school does not make him a better expert *on electrical systems* than the electrician (did I mention the electrician *teaches* at that same school?).
He'll point out that a plumbing qualification from a highly respected trade school does not make him a better expert *on electrical systems* than the electrician (did I mention the electrician *teaches* at that same school?).
@jonst0kes @DrEricDing @mlipsitch 30/
To someone outside the situation, the plumber shouting "PANIC PANIC PANIC! Thermonuclear! Worst I've ever seen!" is going to be a bit more impressive than the electrician who is actively trying to solve the problem.
To someone outside the situation, the plumber shouting "PANIC PANIC PANIC! Thermonuclear! Worst I've ever seen!" is going to be a bit more impressive than the electrician who is actively trying to solve the problem.
@jonst0kes @DrEricDing @mlipsitch 31/
Meanwhile the problem is getting worse.
So yes, maybe the electrician should take his griping to a back channel - but that only works if the plumber cares about whether he's spreading real or fake information.
Meanwhile the problem is getting worse.
So yes, maybe the electrician should take his griping to a back channel - but that only works if the plumber cares about whether he's spreading real or fake information.
@jonst0kes @DrEricDing 32/
But the plumber keeps shouting and getting in the way.
At some point the electrician will publicly say: "this guy doesn't know what he's talking about. It is a serious problem, it needs to get fixed, but he's making the problem worse, not better."
But the plumber keeps shouting and getting in the way.
At some point the electrician will publicly say: "this guy doesn't know what he's talking about. It is a serious problem, it needs to get fixed, but he's making the problem worse, not better."
@jonst0kes @DrEricDing 33/
That's all I've got to say on this. I'm done with this whole mess. @DrEricDing can go back to his sensationalism now. I can't waste my time on this any more. Other scientists shouldn't have to waste their time on the repeated fake claims he has posted.
That's all I've got to say on this. I'm done with this whole mess. @DrEricDing can go back to his sensationalism now. I can't waste my time on this any more. Other scientists shouldn't have to waste their time on the repeated fake claims he has posted.
@jonst0kes @DrEricDing 34/
actually one last thing - it's worth pointing out that some actual experts have told him that if he wants, he can run his tweets by them first (that back channel you mention).
I do not believe he has taken them up on it.
(muting this conversation now)
actually one last thing - it's worth pointing out that some actual experts have told him that if he wants, he can run his tweets by them first (that back channel you mention).
I do not believe he has taken them up on it.
(muting this conversation now)
