Thread by @jonst0kes

Such a weird moment we're in with #COVID19 commentary. A thread of various point in no particular order.

1. A lot of credentialism happening right now from ppl whose credentials in academic virology/epidemiology are thinner than the guy they're dragging on this website.

2. As near as I can tell, & I'm happy to be corrected on this, nothing the being-dragged-&-nicknamed account has posted or said on TV is factually wrong. It seems to be the tone -- too alarmist -- that most are objecting to. I get the feeling that if what this person was posting

...was from the center of the CW, there would be some minor professional jealousy re: the CNN hits, but nothing like the vitriol I'm seeing. This is pretty nakedly about the power to control a narrative, & who gets to ring the alarm bell & when. This dude is trying to break..

..the glass & pull the lever too early, it seems, & I guess the feeling is "he doesn't have the professional standing to do that."

I totally get that feeling, but professionals targeting someone for namecalling doesn't increase layperson confidence in their own work. 🤷‍♂️

3. There are a LOT of takes on this from people with expertise in the math side of things. Bioninformatics, physics, business intelligence, etc. I personally think that's great, especially since I am seeing some sloppy math from public health types & ppl who should know better.

But all these takes do make it hard to sort & filter, & to figure out what's worth signal boosting & what is not. It also makes it very hard to figure out how worried to be, since you can find the math in current numbers to back up extremes of optimism & pessimism...

...which tells me that there is also room for professional intuition & experience, here. Some of that will even come from journos & ppl without direct training in core disciplines for understanding outbreaks/epidemics.

4. I'm following this closely for my day job, & I am seeing more tut-tutting & warnings about deliberate disinfo than I am seeing disinfo! There are only a few bits of apparent disinfo circulating, & 80% of that circulation comes from people hyperventilating about it.

5. I suspect there's a growing sense that this may get pretty bad, & that the guy who's getting dragged will turn out to be both right & early with it (but nothing's certain yet!), which is why it's so urgent to shut him down, now. So that if/when alarm is warranted, he...

... doesn't get the credit for sounding it early.

Well, guess what Very Serious People, I can tell you from the world of investing that this is the way it works: if the bubble pops, the nutter who has been calling it on SquawkBox for months gets to take a victory lap...

...and all the Very Serious People who've been ridiculing him will have egg on their face because everyone who has been heeding VSP advice to stay the course is now left holding the bag.

So the only way to deal with the guy on TV warning that the end is nigh, & who has a non-zero possibility of being correct, is to forego the personal attacks & just keep talking your own book. That way, if at some point you have to turn bearish, too, u don't also have to eat crow

Anyway, the TL;DR of this rambling thread is this: I'm here for facts & information, & not credentialism & personal attacks. If someone is spreading something that is factually wrong, let's see the counter evidence. But if you just don't like what they're saying or are mad...

..that they tweeted their way onto CNN but your phone isn't ringing & your credentials are way better, then 1) welcome to the media, that's how it ALWAYS is!, and 2) I beg you to take the griping to a backchannel & don't noise up my feed with it. Because there is a🦠spreading

... that we're all worried about to one degree or another, so I am here for facts, debunkings, counter-arguments, stats, & good math, & not for credentialism &/or beefing. Thank you.🙏

FYI the person being dragged is @DrEricDing. If someone can point to instances of him spreading things that are demonstrably false, then please hit me up with examples. This is a non-rhetorical request. I'm just tryna curate a feed & figure out WTH happening with the 🦠.

@DrEricDing Yes, his tone is considerably more alarmist than most. It may ultimately be warranted, or it may not be. We'll see. I'm personally not there yet, but I'm certainly not going to ridicule anyone who is. I'm also not here for the tone, I'm here for the info.