In 2006/2007 I participated in a large scale effort by the USG to figure out the right response to potential outbreaks of avian flu. Questions ranged from figuring out the speed of transmission and vectors to issues relating to border screening to ways in which (if needed) /1
we might use the US Postal Service to deliver supplies to people sheltering in place, and every other possible question related to this (communications; resources; provisioning; distribution; treatment; you name it). It was one of the singularly most difficult /2
and challenging policy questions I worked on while at DHS, requiring coordination with almost every other agency of government and strong leadership from the National Security Council. We didn't have all the answers; we weren't even sure we had all the questions /3
But in the end we thought we had the outline of a plan that, thankfully, never had to be implemented.
One thing of which I was certain at the time--we were making the best judgments we could make with the information we had, relying on as good a set of science as we could. /4
One thing of which I was certain at the time--we were making the best judgments we could make with the information we had, relying on as good a set of science as we could. /4
We had optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. We explored blue sky and black swan possibilities. But all were grounded, ultimately in reality. Especially after the inadequate response to Katrina, we were going to give the best answer we could. /5
And that's why I'm worried today. Do we =really= have confidence in the current Administration's response to covid-19? That science is the ground for decision? That all of the "acting" leaders have sufficient independence to act? To tell the President when they /6
think he is wrong? Do we think that the President grasps the complex tradeoffs at issue with different potential courses of action? That he won't make a decision based on what's most likely to put off the problem past the election even if it is long-term the wrong answer? /7
I think we all know the answer to that. The Administration is bereft of science; bereft of experience; and bereft of gravitas. We can only hope that covid-19 burns itself out. If it doesn't the only thing we can be 100% of is that the warm weather isn't the cure. /fin
* 100% sure of
