Thread by @kurteichenwald

1. I'm going to keep trying to get people to understand epidemics. Again, COVID-19 might not be vast death here. Or it might. The time to limit its spread is now.

So, to explain epidemics, let's discuss the 1918 Liberty Parade...

2..In 9/1918, cases of influenza starting popping up in Philadelphia. (also KS - based on my memory - but news of that hadn't spread.)

Later in the month, a government official said "There is no cause for further alarm. We believe we have it well in hand.” (Sound familiar?)...

3...the city had planned a Liberty Parade for 9/28/18, which was a rally for a liberty loan drive. Medical experts begged the city - please cancel! You will have thousands of people in one place, shoved together, touching the same things, pushing forward to see the parade!....

4...enormous numbers there will contract influenza!" But, pish-posh. The government was convinced - because they listened to politicians who had other goals, not to the medical experts who were trying to save a world - that there was no issue and they proceeded ahead with...

5....little debate.

200,000 people showed up for that parade. I'm sure there were thousands of different religions, different political beliefs, etc.

The 1918 flu had an incubation period of 2-3 days. 72 hours after the parade, every bed in 31 city hospitals was filled...

6...within a week, 45,000 people had contracted the disease. Researchers have come to believe that the epicenter of the 1918 flu explosion that went through the globe may have been in Philadelphia, from that one parade.

Philadelphia's mortality rate exploded. The disease...

7...spread everywhere - around the world. And remember - this disease had a 2-3 day incubation period. People only had 2-3 days to wander around, touching things, infecting others. COVID-19 has a *14* day incubation period. YOU may have it right now, but not know. And for 14...

8...days, if you are not washing your hands, everything you touch can become a source for the virus. Everything everyone else touches that you have touched can be a source of the virus. It doesn't matter if only Trumpers think COVID-19 is meaningless, no big deal. If they get...

9...it in mass numbers and refuse to take precautions because of Trump's assurances, and any number of them get it, everything they touch for 14 days can carry the virus - doorknobs, counters, ticket counters, people's food. It will not stay just with them, just like peopel...

10...who DIDNT attend the Liberty Parade could get sick from someone who got sick from someone who got sick from someone who attended the Liberty Parade.

Back to 1918. In six weeks after the parade, 12,000 were dead - in Philly. Bodies were left to rot in homes as people....

11...waited for them to be removed. The air throughout the city was filled with the smell of rotting corpses.

The death toll from the 1918 flu, worldwide, was at a minimum between 40-50 million, and some experts estimate as high as 100 million.....

12...and no, the death rate - despite the 10s of millions who died - was not exceptional. While it infected about 25% of the world's population, it had a 2% death rate.

COVID-19, based in the first data that has come out of China, has a 2.3% death rate. Yes, higher than 1918...

13...now, does that mean it will hold at 2.3%? No. Could go much lower. Or, it could go higher as hospitals fill.

You can't look at this and go "oh, everything's fine." It might work out with minor wreckage on a percentage rate basis. Or, if people are stupid, and listen to...

14..Trump, think the warnings are a hoax, go to events where they crush in together to listen to someone tell them it's BS (like in this photo of the rally where he said that,) the spread can accelerate,because scores can get infected & will take no precautions to limit spread..

15...but don't think this is just Republican foolishness.

A Sanders rally a couple of days ago....

16...a Biden rally....

17...a Warren rally....

18...a Bloomberg rally....

19...the Liberty Parade.....

20...a virus doesnt give a damn about who you support politically. It doesnt care about what country you live in, or if you're in a blue or red state. It doesnt care about your religion, or race. It doesn't care.

It infects everyone, those who think it's serious, and those...

21...who don't. If you don't take precautions, YOU could drive disease. Wash your hands, 60 seconds at a time. Sing happy birthday twice while washing. Dont go out if you dont need to. Stay out of public restrooms if you can (evidence suggests it passes through urine)

Be smart.

22...personal intelligence limits epidemics. Only we can slow its progression by doing everything we have to do. Or we can ignore it and wake up in a couple of weeks saying "OMIGOD! How could I have been so stupid?"

Wash obsessively. Read this from @WHO. who.int/emergencies/di…

People bitching it doesn't pass through urine - thus giving an excuse for those who don't wash hands at public restrooms. (Thanks for pushing recklessness, guys)

Most RECENT research SUGGESTS (word I used) it does. You'll seriously gamble wont be confirmed to avoid hand washing?