On the weekly chart, we’re approaching a significant SR level at $7,515. If we start closing multiple weekly candles below that again, then that’ll probably mean we’ll continue the downwards path towards the next macro support which is around $5,300.
BTC D3: 
We got a D3 SR to build our macro bias. While scaling into spot buys down here isn’t a totally dumb idea, we think that as long as we stay below that D3 block, rallies are for shorting.
BTC Macro Range:
We know that above or below key swing points there is liquidity in the form of stops and breakout traders. Our range is based on the big wicks that we’ve made in May and October 2019, with the range midpoint acting as a SR flip clear as day.
BTC Macro View:
Combining all of the above, we now have a super clean bias moving forward.
For now, just by looking at the charts alone, we’re mildly bearish since we’re below the range midpoint.
For now, just by looking at the charts alone, we’re mildly bearish since we’re below the range midpoint.
But if we start closing multiple weekly candles below our weekly resistance, it’ll be a sign of bearish trend continuation downwards, into the $5K levels again.
We’re going to be mildly bullish above the range midpoint, but the macro bullish trend will be confirmed only after we regain the D3 SR block.
Let’s now look into other factors that might tell us how close we are of a potential mid-term bottom.
Futures Delta:
So we know that the most significant bounces in the past were made when the March futures approached levels close to backwardation. As the March futures now approach expiry, thus being irrelevant due to contract maturity, we are going to focus on the June futures delta here.
We’re still $196 away from backwardation, but once we get below the $100 mark, we need to pay close attention to the price action.
Funding Rate:
The funding rate also deemed to be a pretty reliable data source when it came to warning signals that a top or a bottom might be in.
Log-growth Curves:
This one is pretty self-explanatory - we’re approaching the lower band here (actually touched it).
Final conclusion:
Technically speaking, we should be approaching a short-mid term bottom. But that’s only based on analyzing the charts and data alone, and not the world-events that contributed to this selloff.
Technically speaking, we should be approaching a short-mid term bottom. But that’s only based on analyzing the charts and data alone, and not the world-events that contributed to this selloff.
Given the strength of the downtrend and the global economic collapse that we’re witnessing due to the coronavirus crisis, we’d rather short the rallies if/once they occur, until we get back above the D3 block.
Unless the global markets calm down and the human malware is contained, the sell-off might not be finished yet.
And before you ask, no, people that are selling their stonks panicked by the volatility and increased risk of a global economic recession won’t buy BTC, an even more volatile and riskier asset. We know Bitcoin is the best asset to hold in a utopia, but we’re not quite there yet.
Trade safe and avoid risking too much in times like these.
You can read my previous weekly market analysis, as well as many other interesting things that happen in the crypto space, here: cryptocalibur.com/crypto-news/
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