Thread by @Trader_Payne

25th of February 2020

This week we’re going to be making another top-down analysis for BTC.

Starting off with the Daily chart where we have marked all our levels of interest:

BTC Daily:

Let’s discuss the levels that we have here. So above the current price we have the Weekly and Monthly resistances made during the June 2019 top.

Below the current price we have the Last Low Pre-Break of September 2019 which is a key HTF pivotal level as of right now, as well as the D3 Support. Below that, we have two weekly levels that we’ll discuss later on.

Only looking at the Daily chart we can already build a bias on top of what we’re seeing here.

If we break the D3 support here before reaching into the red zone, buying the dip inside the weekly supports is the better choice.

If we bounce the D3 support now and we get into the red zone, we should probably start looking for shorts for a short-mid term market correction starting from that point onwards.

Also worth noting that around the first weekly level there’s the Monthly Breaker we’ve mentioned in recent weeks, and the bottom weekly level is inside the OTE fib level (62 - 79% fib retracement from the macro leg up). Confluence is key.

Now, with the above mentioned levels in mind, let’s switch to H4 and H1 and see what we can learn from the current price action.
LTF H4:

LTF H1:

We know that liquidity is formed above or below important swings, right? That’s exactly what the H4 chart has drawn on it - liquidity pools.

That means if, at any given moment this week, we take out any of the liquidity pools AND close back above last week’s low, that’s a long.

It is also worth mentioning that we should not close any D1 candles below the D3 support, otherwise we’ll probably get to the lowest liquidity level marked on the H4 chart.

The best probability for this trade to go in your favor is when one of the red lines are reclaimed though, but the best risk:reward ratio is longing the last week’s low reclaim. Pick your poison.

Long scenario:

For the bears out there, if you aren’t short already, it’s better to wait for the D3 support to be lost before even thinking about shorting, because right now you’ll be shorting HTF support which isn’t quite the best idea even though low timeframes look like crap.

Always trade with the high time-frame levels in mind.

You can read my previous weekly market analysis, as well as many other interesting things that happen in the crypto space, here: cryptocalibur.com/crypto-news/

@CryptoCalibur #Bitcoin

@CryptoCalibur PS: fuck twitter formatting