1/n This is why this game is hard. @ValueStockGeek should be applauded for putting himself out there. However, I have to highlight a few salient points from his post valuestockgeek.com/2020/03/14/im-… which should be read
2/n @ValueStockGeek highlights depths of previous drawdowns in small value, but its worth pointing out that we have ALREADY exceeded two of these events (1990 and 2000) in Russell 2000 Value. From Aug 18 peak VBR fell 38% both in price and NAV 
3/n This pales in comparison to the drawdown in “pure” value (RZV) which eliminates overlap between growth and value embedded in VBR. Down a “staggering” 56% over same period
4/n As I’ve previously highlighted, even the best confuse price action with fundamental insight
5/n Where @ValueStockGeek starts to lose my sympathy is a bit further down the blog: “The BTFD mantra isn’t slowing down. That is not the mentality you see at the bottom of the market.” Exactly. So you can assume everyone else is stupid, or you can consider you’re the patsy
6/n If BTFD hasn’t stopped, maybe you got suckered into folding against a pair of 4s. I could be wrong as well. The economy might fold...
7/n But here’s an interesting message from a friend in healthcare. And UBS tells us a stimulus as large as 2009 is unfolding... at 3.5% unemployment
8/n And deeper, a fundamental flaw is revealed
9/n I am not suggesting this is the bottom. In fact I’m explicitly saying, “I don’t know”. But “volatility” is the measure of the market expressing certainty. A low VIX is suggesting high kurtosis, only a narrow range of outcomes are viewed as possible. A high VIX says 🤷♀️
10/10 “You’re wrong!” is not a reasonable response to “I don’t know”. So to hold the passive account while dumping discretionary account is the ultimate illustration of what actually happened in the past few weeks. Panic and a return to the herd. Trade wisely.
