2/ First see above for a little recap of what's happened so far and what matters are clearly two things :
WHEN DO WE GET RID OF LOCKDOWNS
WHAT STIMULUS IS THERE
WHEN DO WE GET RID OF LOCKDOWNS
WHAT STIMULUS IS THERE
3/ The bulls are thinking lockdowns are going bust very soon and are already looking at 150FY1 EPS * 18-19 =2700-2850. multiple is from my model. eps is from sellside. (my valuation work is def superior) threadreaderapp.com/thread/1247327…
4/ I think this is bullshit, because the only reason we are plateauing in new cases/death and what not IS the lockdown. remove that and you will nix hospital capacity very quickly again. WHAT IS NEEDED IS HERD IMMUNITY AND SEROLOGY TESTS TO ASCERTAIN IF ONE HAS ANTIBODIES OR NOT
5/ OR EFFICIENT MEDICATION WHICH WILL ACTUALLY HELP (HCL is unproven, sorry Trump, thing cud be as effective as sugar right now) and alleviate need to go be hsptalized.
HENCE I THINK, LIKE MERKEL SAID, THAT IS TOO SOON TO REMOVE LOCKDOWNS. Singap already has a second wave
HENCE I THINK, LIKE MERKEL SAID, THAT IS TOO SOON TO REMOVE LOCKDOWNS. Singap already has a second wave
6/ China won't tell you even if they did...
Catalyst is someone needs to explain this to Cuomo so that Cuomo can explain this to markets
Catalyst is someone needs to explain this to Cuomo so that Cuomo can explain this to markets
7/ On stimulus : There's this whole rumor that Pelosi wants a second round i assure you there is no hope for this. Pelo knows it already, anyone who listens to congress folks knows this. mkts needs to see a red headline from BBG. hpfly someone does that asap = sell XAU cuz it exp 
8/ Oil : They will cut cuz by MAY 15th storage is full if they don't. then it will depend on lockdown situation. but without writing a big thread i see a good case for staying long oil into the meeting. i can expand if there's any interest
9/ All of the objections surrounding anti trust and such will be bypassed. WH lawyers already have a plan for that.
10/ Only big pblem could be Irak's inability to cut but i think KSA could cut for them as Trump played the military card already.
@threadreaderapp unroll
What matters today.
Although you have Trump & friends pumping the other side.
looks like my model was right and we didn't even need a catalyst, Gold is down 1% since.
Although you have Trump & friends pumping the other side.
looks like my model was right and we didn't even need a catalyst, Gold is down 1% since.
Looking to short into the Open 2750=18.3x150. Multiple is 1 pt from max i could give to it. EPS is really max of what it could be
