My model suggests FV multiple NTM of 16.5x
It could be higher with further FED action :
Implementation of US CSPP and or YCC which could raise that to as much as 20x imo
Other bullish signal involve oil mkts and i've discussed them extensively.
It could be higher with further FED action :
Implementation of US CSPP and or YCC which could raise that to as much as 20x imo
Other bullish signal involve oil mkts and i've discussed them extensively.
The FV is lower than my previous one because it seems that Governors across the US are responding (imo) in an unnecessarily emotional way by curtailing all economic activity. I adhere to the "natural way" here of dealing with epidemics cf UK/Netherlands so far.
GS Suggested an EPS FY20 of 110, this is now my working assumption. Contrary to what i've suggested last week, there will be no plazza acc. because china will refuse it citing the JP experience. i expect the $ to keep strengthening throughout the whole stress episode until
either curve flattens or govs give up on containment.
I still expect $ strength to be milder than what it hasbeen so far.
I expect Fed to step up QE this week if not announce YCC and congress to discuss legal authorization of CSPP, these are all bullish items for dead cat boun
I still expect $ strength to be milder than what it hasbeen so far.
I expect Fed to step up QE this week if not announce YCC and congress to discuss legal authorization of CSPP, these are all bullish items for dead cat boun
#TRADEIDEAS
My biases are
short stonks until <2100 then we see
long bonds still from last week
giving up on short DXY for now.
My biases are
short stonks until <2100 then we see
long bonds still from last week
giving up on short DXY for now.
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