As I feared and tracked, #RIAH [#Russia-#Iran-#Assad-#Hezbollah] is going to kill a lot of #Syrian people in #Idlib with CW and without CW then falsely claim that RIAH is innocent, its CW as well as all its killing is fabricated.
Why I am saying this?
I clarify in this thread
1/ #RIAH [#Russia-#Iran-#Assad-#Hezbollah] prepared #Idlib Ops almost to perfection. But every criminal commits a mistake which exposes his crime. And RIAH committed a huge mistake. But first let me dive into RIAH's criminal mind.
2/ I grew up in war in #Lebanon and witnessed it, it took me time in retrospect to understand what happened. The disinformation campaign by Assad was huge I'll explain few things so that you understand RIAH's modus operandi and psychological warfare, its raison d'etre and effect.
Short THREAD on #Russia - #Turkey divergences over #Idlib as seen from #Moscow: 1. In early August I described rationale behind RU positon & that "certain level of understanding reached w/ TUR that there should be no [large-scale] offensive on Idlib [then]"almon.co/338t
2.I recently reached out to the same senior RUS diplomat who reiterated #Moscow's bottom-line desire to settle the issue peacefully except for terrorists organization who he argued #Turkey too agreed to fight as part of AStana agreements.Yesterday,RU #Syria envoy Lavrentyev..
3. .alluded to #Russia's growing displease w/ #Ankara's inability to deliver upon its committments in the area that, as Lavrentyev said"is kind of their zone of responsibility."Instead,#Erdogan writing op-eds,trying to enlist support from #West/ern partners over #Idlib which is..
Iranian militias in #Syria
By the beginning of 2012, with the increasing peaceful demonstrations the #IRGC began to feel the danger to the regime of its ally Assad and the major schisms within the #Assad army. Opposition sources estimate the number of dissidents at 150,000.1/12
Because of Assad's field losses, Tehran gave orders to #Hezbollah terrorist militia to conduct military intervention to save #Assad. It was the first direct military presence of the militia in southern #Damascus and the vicinity of Damascus International Airport.2/12 #Iran#USA
Muhammed Najem was in Ghouta saying the exact same things before Assad liberated that part of Syria from Jihadist "rebels". This teenager is taking selfies for propaganda purposes and shame on Al Jazeera for participating in this. #Idlib#IdlibDawn#IdlibOffensive #HandsOffSyria
We are past the point of no return in #Syria. Not taking direct military action against the Assad regime as it proceeds to carry out its extermination campaign in #Idlib & the rest of Syria, is complicity to genocide and puts us squarely on a direct war path with Russia and Iran.
Pretending that Russia and Iran can be appeased by allowing the #Assad regime to commit genocide in #Syria is a lethal mistake. Striking the Assad regime decisively and militarily will halt the Russian & Iranian war march towards Europe & Mediterranean. Diplomacy has not worked.
We are already at war with Russia + Iran. Pretending that allowing Assad to live is somehow going to change that fact is simpleton nonsense blanketed in immorality masked as "anti-war" sentiments that condone genocide, torture, and the erasure of international law & human rights.
Already 1000s of year ago, expansionists knew that hegemony requires take over of:
-border crossings (later when airplanes were invented also airports) 2- Locals 3- Resources
2/ Roman/Byzantine Empire took over countries & created an infrastructure network leading to its HQ. This facilitated transport of military & resources.
Today also other countries use same strategy. First thing is take over of infrastructure: sea/airports/land routes/crossings.
..the idea for the summit was to get a deal where all the 3 can secure their bottom-line interests.They didn't fully achieve it since there will be another round of trilateral talks (some time in the future in #Russia) and the parties hope to settle #Idlib issue in #Tehran but..
..(a) #Turkey maintained credibility of the oppoaition (by that good cop-bad cop thing #Erdogan & #Putun played), (b) #Russia got his promise to deal w/ those attacking #Hmeymim (c) #Ankara received time to settle the major task of assorting militants (d)..
I will publish one the parts which proves that #Russia's #SAA's staged #ISIS video in which they also mention that ISIS will commit CW attack in #Idlib. Here I amplified what SAA is telling him at low voice what to say.
In part II
SAA: who gave you weapons?
(Important: You can hear a third person telling him to say: AlAmerkan)
Then the pseudo-ISIS says: Ma.... [he wanted to say Ma ba3ref = I dont know, but corrects it and says: AlAmerkan Sidi (The American Sir)
SAA: Say it loud and clear
SAA Russia culminate the lies
Pseudo #ISIS: A group of ISIS photographers was sent to #Idlib to stage an attack, CW & I dont know what.
In other words, there wont be a real CW attack, all is staged by ISIS photographers, no one will die, its all a movie. Good to know eh
#Assad has repeatedly vowed to retake “Every Inch of #Syria”. While the pledge seemed unrealistic early on, it suddenly doesn’t seem too far fetched. But is Assad’s vow only about land, or is there something more fundamental that has been cornerstone of the leadership’s strategy
2-Vowing to “Take Every Inch of #Syria back” started as early as 2013 when Damascus would make the pledge in private to Western officials who came looking for solutions. Such officials were known to have warned Damascus that, even if possible, such would take years to achieve =>
3-Since the pledge was first used in private in 2013, the #Syrian leadership has stuck to its vow and made it clear that there can’t be a political solution until every inch of the country is taken back under State control first. This fundamental premise continues today
Important article... @ejmalrai ‘s exclusive reveals content of #US message conveyed via #Russia to #Syria.
1-The US will leave #Syria. 2- Let the Kurds continue negotiations with Damascus. 3- The US establishment will recognise Assad’s authority over Syria..
But Iran must leave.
.2/ #Assad’s response: #US came to #Syria uninvited and it’s presence is illegal.
Syria’s duty is to push it out by all means. #US shall not obtain by negotiation what it failed to obtain in seven years of war.
.3/ Assad & his allies see a US-French-UK withdrawal as an achievement & their eventual withdrawal a necessity, once Syria is no longer in need of their help.
Assad conveyed to US, Iran not interested in remaining once mission of terminating “terrorist” threat is accomplished.
Russia wants to avoid further clashes between #Israel & #Iran in Syria and will try to do so to the benefit of the central government In #Damascus.
#Russia understands that #Iran was in #Syria 1st (2013 heavily) to help #Damascus to fight #ISIS, #AQ and their allies supported (finance, weapons, intel) by Arab, Israel and western countries to stop "regime change".
Russia came to join the already ongoing effort in 2015.
Unlike what many "pop-corn analysts", "Twitter or divan journalists/analysts" might say, #Assad - although very grateful for Moscow's intervention not only in Syria but also at the UN and various platforms - can and did disagree with #Russia in few battles north and south.