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How much is #Ukraine similar to #Syria?

Back in 2016. power of Bashar Al-#Assad was on his last legs. Insurgents took over the almost entire country, leaving him with roughly 15% of land under government control.

by Slavyangrad
All big cities were lost or heavily contested. The enemy was as close as two kilometers to the center of #Damascus.

#Syria #ukraine
Then #Russians came. Slowly but methodically, they started to bombard insurgents, which we can call a conglomerate of various ideological and interest groups, including designated terrorists such as Jabhat Al Nusra and #ISIS.

Read 30 tweets
#Russia redeploying its 217th Airborne Regiment from #Syria to #Ukraine is part of a larger months-long drawdown of Russian forces in Syria.… 1/7
Moscow faces severe manpower shortages in #Ukraine and is pulling some units from #Syria to inject into the fight. This continuing drawdown is facilitating the expansion of the #Iranian presence in Syria and exacerbating the Iran-Israel escalation cycle. 2/7
#Iran likely seeks to fill the security gap caused by this #Russian drawdown to expand Iranian military influence and maintain stability. 3/7
Read 7 tweets
#Putin's call for a "partial" mobilization is the clearest sign yet that his #Ukraine invasion has been a pitiful failure.

That flights from Russia to its immediate neighbors are now selling out at 100mph tells you everything you need to know.

We *must* keep the pressure on. Image
#Putin's nuclear threat, meanwhile, should be taken even less seriously than 6 months ago -- anyone who actually says "this isn't a bluff" has already lost his/her own credibility.

Following through on the threat would kill off his few remaining friendships -- chiefly #China.
On days like this, the "we must give #Putin an off ramp ASAP" camp will speak up -- but such a gut response only benefits #Putin & repeats our mistakes of the past.

If #Putin wants an out, he has to be the one to ask (or plead) for one. It's actually happened before, in #Syria.
Read 5 tweets
1/6 Je n'ai pas l'habitude de répondre aux haineux, je bloque mais là exception. 2015 a été l'année du départ massif des syriens pourquoi? Après 4 années de massacre et l'abandon total de la rébellion par les forces occidentales surtout après le massacre chimique aout 2013
2/6 et le renoncement #Obama synonyme de l'impunité passée et future d'#Assad. Il n'y avait plus d'espoir pour les syriens, et rien ne pouvait empêcher les bombes barils d'Assad de massacrer les civils, Obama avait mis son VETO sur la livraison d'armes anti aérienne aux rebelles.
3/6 Le soutien occidental aux rebelles est incomparable au soutien à l'Ukraine, les #USA ont voté un budget de 43 milliards de $ en soutien à l'Ukraine là ou le budget pour l'opposition syrienne était de 500 millions $ même pas totalement dépensé.
Read 6 tweets
2 children on the boat have died in recent days -- and the health of others are deteriorating.

To ignore such a tragedy, just off #Malta's coast, represents an unspeakable lack of humanity.

Time for someone to step up, @MaltaGov.
@MaltaGov That Syrians are still fleeing for #Europe is no surprise, particularly those in #Lebanon where authorities are preparing to *illegally force* them back to #Syria.

5+ million #Syria refugees remain in neighboring states & polling suggests ~0.5% would consider an eventual return.
@MaltaGov Why do almost all #Syria refugees refuse to consider any future return to #Syria?

The answer is obvious when you glance across basic facts -- see this thread from last week:

Read 12 tweets
NEW -- reports of a possible #Israel airstrikes hitting #Iran-linked targets in the western edge of #Aleppo International Airport as well as a section of the runway.
Here's video filmed showing #Aleppo International Airport in the distance -- showing multiple successive explosions.

Reports now coming in of possible airstrikes in #Latakia too.
*Highly* unusual to see #Aleppo International Airport targeted, or the Neirab Airbase next-door -- it speaks volumes about #Israel's perceived need to respond to #Iran's activities in #Syria.

Note -- #Israel hit #IRGC shipments at #Damascus International Airport in June.
Read 4 tweets
6 months into #Russia’s aggression against #Ukraine, there are mostly losers.

One potential winner is #Turkey, given 2nd-order effects of the war.

Since Feb, Ankara has gained some leverage vis-a-vis both #Russia and #NATO.

An attempt at a (complicated) balance sheet🧵(1/18)
Since Feb, #Turkey has attempted a careful balancing act on #RussiaUkraineWar:
-No sanctions against #Russia
-No boycott of Russian #gas
-#Erdogan engaging #Putin frequently & visibly
-Giving #Ukraine #BayraktarTB2
-Invoking Montreux Convention

I could go on and on (2/18)
As a result of
1) Turkey successfully mediating grain exports from Ukraine ports &
2) #Russia increasingly shunning traditional mediation platforms (Geneva),
Turkey is poised to become chief intermediary on operational issues re #RussiaUkraineWar… (3/18)
Read 18 tweets

1️⃣ I go against most analyst concerning the interpretation of the latest statements from #Turkish officials on the #Syria|n issue. Here are some of the points:

➡️ I don't believe these statements are directed towards #Assad regime rather than #Russia

➡️ #Moscow can block/ hinder #Tukiye's anticipated military op. #Putin pressured #Turkiye to contact #Assad to resolve the issue in the North

➡️ Türkiye is showing #Russia that it is trying but Assad is not committed to resolve any of the serious issues in #Syria

➡️ #Turkiye wil tell #Russia later: either you pressure #Assad or we launch op

➡️ 🇹🇷's communication w Assad Intel ws a result of pressure from Russia. It didn't prevent 🇹🇷 though from launching military ops or targeting regime. It ws designed 2 withdraw any objection frm 🇷🇺
Read 7 tweets
1. I'm no #Assad fan. He is a brutal dictator who used chemical weapons on his own people. But we learned what happens if you destroy a nation's defense force after defeating dictators in #Germany and in #Iraq. What comes is either subjugation to a predator like the USSR or chaos
2. in the form of something like #Daesh. The #Turkish attack on the Syrian #Arab Republic forces near #Kobane is an act of an aggressor nation seeking to subjugate #Syria so it can commit genocide against #Yazidi, #Kurds and #Christians. @NATO cannot permit #Erdogan to hold
3. our collective morality and best interests hostage while he uses #Finland and #Sweden's accession as means to extort complicity in his crimes. Tell #Erdogan if he attacks Syria every member of @NATO will terminate their #Article5 obligations to #Turkey and cast the neo-
Read 4 tweets
1. I think it's important to recognize that this was likely #Putin's idea that he sold to #Erdogan in their #Sochi meeting.

"We will not reconcile" .. Night demonstrations in the liberated areas of northern Syria, in rejection of the statements of the Turkish Foreign Minister.
2. Remember, #Kadyrov was there. Could it be intended to expose the people who will never play ball so Kadyrov's crew can assassinate them? I'm not sure they are that clever but it is always worth considering. Putin is reported to be in a dream world where he fantasizes victories
3. are coming soon. It's possible Putin is that out of touch to not realize what the #Syrian opposition is really thinking. Also, #Assad has been on the rehabilitation tour and may also believe that because the corrupt #GulfState leaders are willing to forget his
Read 5 tweets
#Erdogan is under pressure to negotiate with #Assad.

You might think no way, right?

After all, he tried his best to topple Assad militarily. He harbors and supports many of al-Assad's opponents. He called al-Assad once a terrorist.

The master of u-turns could well do it. 1/3
Erdogan is incredibly pragmatic, which partly explains his long career at the helm of Turkey. Remember the downing of the Russian jet 7 years ago?

Remember his position from Egypt's Sisi and how he caved later on? His position from Saudi Arabia following Khashoggi's murder?

I believe he's seriously considering reconciling with Assad.

Assad might be Erdogan's golden card for the next elections: a way to
- facilitate the return of Syrian refugees in Turkey
- bring the Kurdish elements opposed to Turkey (YPG) in northeast Syria under control.
Read 3 tweets
1/5 Ce qui est dramatique pour les syriens cest le manque total de perspective de fin de conflit. Aujourd'hui demain et tous les jours #Poutine peut décider de jeter ses bombes sur les 4 millions de déportés syriens dans le nord du pays. Les 12 millions d'exilés refugiés de force
2/5 n'ont aucune perspective de retour. Pendant ce temps les iraniens changent la démographie du pays en installant des populations chiites. Deir ezzor, des quartiers d’Alep et des localités dans les faubourgs de Damas sont aujourd'hui colonisés par des populations chiites.
3/5 L'Iran veut noyauter la #Syrie comme elle l'a fait avec le #Liban via le #Hezbollah et l'administration #Biden a totalement abandonné la #Syrie aux russes et iraniens. Article du Washington Post très sévère a l'encontre de #Biden.…
Read 5 tweets
#Syrie How it started
Plus de 11 années après le début de la révolution syrienne, la Syrie a disparu des écrans radars et quand certains médias en parlent c’est dans le cadre de débats géopolitiques. Le mieux pour comprendre le drame que vivent les Syriens aujourd’hui, 1/
c’est un rappel des origines de la révolution et de ce qui a poussé à la militarisation. Thread 2/
3/ Février 2011, après la #Tunisie la vague révolutionnaire a touché l’#Egypte, la #Libye. Tous les regards se tournent vers la Syrie qui vit depuis 1970 sous le joug des #Assad.
Read 31 tweets
This is murderous policy of the #Assad regime in #Syria Thread⤵️

350,209 documented deaths.
306,887 civilians
27,126 children

51,731 civilians killed in #Aleppo
47,483 civilians killed in Rural #Damascus
22,064 civilians killed in #Darra

The sheer numbers are horrific #HRC50
On the 15th of March, 2011, #Syrian civilians took to the streets demanding democratic reforms and a better life.

These civilians were met with bullets.
They were met with torture.
They were met by the Syrian government who knows no limits. #HRC50
In later years of this conflict, the government used chemical weapons. It used Chlorine gas. It used weapons of mass destruction on its own people. #HRC50
Read 5 tweets
"I've been asking a simple, but important question.. What is the administration's strategy on #Syria?" -- @SenatorMenendez

"I remain concerned this administration has accepted #Assad's rule as a foregone conclusion." -- @SenatorRisch

SFRC hearing, now.
@SenatorMenendez @SenatorRisch "I was shocked to see Bashar al-#Assad welcomed as any other Head of State by the #UAE."

- @SafiraLeaf, Assistant Secretary of State for #MiddleEast.
@SenatorMenendez @SenatorRisch @SafiraLeaf "I will make the #Syria crisis & applying pressure on the #Assad regime, a priority in the administration."

- @SafiraLeaf, Assistant Secretary of State for #MiddleEast.
Read 9 tweets
Pretty intense combat vid. 1/4

Insane amount of enemy arty

General impression: these #inghimasi squads need at least 1 marksman rifle to clear enemy trenches 150m+

Episode VII:
#Maan checkpoints, north of #Hama 2017
#HTS #Assad
Pretty intense combat vid. 2/4

Insane amount of enemy arty

General impression: these #inghimasi squads need at least 1 marksman rifle to clear enemy trenches 150m+

Episode VII:
#Maan checkpoints, north of #Hama 2017
#HTS #Assad
Pretty intense combat vid. 3/4

Insane amount of enemy shells..

General impression: these #inghimasi squads need at least 1 marksman rifle to clear enemy trenches 150m+

Episode VII:
#Maan checkpoints, north of #Hama 2017
#HTS #Assad
Read 4 tweets
BREAKING: #UAE President #KhalifabinZayed just died. Crown Prince of #AbuDhabi since 1969, and Abu Dhabi Ruler & President since his father Sheikh Zayed died in 2004. The #BurjKhalifa was initially named to honor him.

A few words on him + what happens now in a thread. 1/
After #KhalifabinZayed suffered a stroke in 2014, his younger brother Mohammad bin Zayed (#MbZ) became de facto leader of the #UAE. Now the Federal Supreme Council (including the rulers of the 7 Emirates) will ratify #MbZ as official President of the #UAE. Basically guaranteed 2/
The more interesting thing is who will be appointed #UAE Crown Prince. Options include #MbZ’s brother & #security czar #TahnoonBinZayed, another brother, or #MbZ’s son #KhalidBinZayed.

While #SaudiArabia moved to primogeniturial succession, the #UAE might do the opposite. 3/
Read 15 tweets
In 2021, #Assad's regime produced & exported ~$30 billion worth of #Captagon -- roughly 35x #Syria's legal exports.

That *enormous* operation cemented #Syria's status as a narco state of international significance.

My latest, for @MiddleEastInst:…
@MiddleEastInst The regime's integral role in #Syria's #Captagon industry is well known -- and Maher al-#Assad is *the* central figure.

Drugs are literally the lifeblood of #Assad's regime & it's destabilizing the #MiddleEast. Dozens have died in #Jordan in recent months in border clashes.
@MiddleEastInst Despite how much is known & although #Assad's regime remains the most infamous perpetrator of war crimes in the C21st, the world is clearly ignoring the #Captagon threat.

In #Jordan, where it's turned deadly, authorities continue to engage with the very regime behind the threat.
Read 4 tweets
#Syrie couverture médiatique
1/18 J’ai visualisé une des vidéos non coupées de la tuerie de Tadamone avril 2013, celle évoquée dans l’article du Guardian, 2 jours que je ne m’en remets pas. Il s’agit d’images de ce qui peut être qualifié d’abatage industriel : les sbires #Assad
2/18 amènent des détenus terrorisés un par un avec les yeux bandés. On voit les miliciens ricaner en jetant les détenus dans un trou tapissé de pneus, ce trou deviendra leur fosse commune. Je n’ai pas regardé la séquence où les miliciens mettent le feu à la pile de cadavre…
3/18 Ces massacres étaient connus depuis 2012, des soldats et officiers ayant fait défection ainsi que des centaines de survivants des massacres d’Assad l’ont décrit. En 2013 les preuves irréfutables de ces massacres ont été apportées par un photographe déserteur « César »
Read 19 tweets
Important - #Assad has appointed a new Minister of Defense today: Major General Ali Mahmoud Abbas, the nominal head of #Syria’s 4th Division.

That can only be read one way: a major consolidation of the #Assad family’s control over the SAA, using Maher al-#Assad’s favored proxy.
#pt: Under Maher al-#Assad’s command & Maj. Gen. Mahmoud’s nominal leadership, the 4th Division has emerged as a power expert in & of itself in #Syria — it’s the prime power behind #Syria’s newfound status as a Marco state, with a narcotics industry worth $10 billions.
Interestingly, the 4th Division has also remained a long-standing, loyal partner of #Iran & #Hezbollah (including in the drugs trade) — resisting years of #Russia attempts to push reform & restructuring.

The 4th Div. also maintains a chemical weapons R&D program.
Read 3 tweets
#Thread #Syrie massacre Tadamone enquête #NewLinesMag processus génocidaire #Assad
1/11 New Lines Mag publie une enquête concernant des informations fournies par un déserteur des services de renseignement syrien.…
2/11 J’avais hier publié un thread sur une des séquences vidéo fournie par ce déserteur et dévoilée par The Guardian où l’on voyait un des sous-officiers d’Assad, Amjd Youssuf, exécuter 41 personnes. Il y a en tout 27 séquences vidéo rapportées par ce déserteur
3/11 où l’on voit des agents du régime de la branche de renseignement 227 aidés par des miliciens de la garde nationale en train d’exécuter 288 civils en avril 2013. Parmi les victimes vues sur ces séquences il y a 7 femmes et 12 enfants.
Read 11 tweets
On 16 April 2013, the #Assad regime’s Military Intelligence massacred over 100 civilians (including women and children) in Damascus by driving them to an alley in Tadamon neighborhood, taking them to a pre-dug pit, and executing them one by one. (1/4)
The perpetrators videotaped the entire massacre, by far the worst footage I have seen in 11 years of violence in Syria. We obtained the videos, analyzed them, managed to find the main perpetrator on Facebook, and interviewed him. (2/4) Full story by @martinchulov in @guardian.
This material is unique: a) There are no other examples of #Assad's Mukhabarat so clearly on record committing massacres and torture against unarmed civilians who are neither detainees nor combatants, b) the perpetrator admitted to his crimes and explained why he did it. (3/4)
Read 4 tweets
#Thread #Syrie vidéo d'un massacre enquête #TheGuardian
1/15 Dans une enquête édifiante et terrible à la fois, The Guardian publie une vidéo d’un massacre commis par les forces d’Assad le 16 avril 2013. On y voit des civils prisonniers détenus par la branche 227
2/15 des services de renseignement militaire. Ils sont jetés les yeux bandés dans une fosse commune pour y être exécutés. Ça se passe à Tadamon, un quartier aux mains des rebelles à l’époque. Cette vidéo a été découverte il y a 3 ans par une nouvelle recrue d’un service de
3/15 renseignement d’Assad. Il s’était alors vu remettre un ordinateur portable et découvre la vidéo sur l’ordinateur. Il y voit un officier du renseignement qu'il reconnait, agenouillé en treillis militaire près de la fosse avec un chapeau de pêcheur sur la tête,
Read 15 tweets
The @StateDept yesterday was required by law to report on the #Assad family's corrupt wealth, but failed to meet the deadline. Mistakes like this create the damaging impression the Biden admin is soft re Assad & hurts US interests in #Syria. 1/3
The Biden admin also missed a deadline yesterday to deliver a #Syria strategy to Congress. There’s no excuse, as the Biden admin completed its Syria policy review months ago. This unforced error gives the damaging impression the Biden team doesn’t have a strategy to deliver. 2/3
Failing to deliver the #Assad wealth report & #Syria strategy also makes no sense at a time when signs abound that #Putin intends to use #Syria as a resource for his war vs #Ukraine. @SecBlinken should fix all of this by having @StateDept deliver the reports immediately. 3/3
Read 3 tweets

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