Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #eurusd

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Daily Currency 🧵- Nov 11th, 2022


Huge moves happening, some that require attention. Starting with the dollar, we saw this blow through momo yesterday and continue to fall this morning. To get a solid trend shift, we're going to need to see some components shift too! Image
A trend shift in the dollar will add more confirmation to the Risk-On regime, which has been brewing under the surface for over a month now. Market Illiquidity improving is supporting the narrative of a possible shift. This really comes down to how the major components trade... Image
$EUR (largest $DXY component)

The EUR was able to blow through parity and get a good squeeze going in the last two days. We still have some distance to momo, a failure to break there will give very low confidence of a DXY trend shift sticking.

Read 5 tweets
Daily Currency 🧵- Nov 10th, 2022


The dollar is holding a bid ahead of the CPI print today. Remember, it's bullish trend until it isn't. Lower VAMP AND momo MUST hold for the trend to remain intact. Image
$EUR (largest $DXY component)

EUR is back under parity this morning ahead of US CPI. For the time, we're still holding above mid-VAMP, but parity has been the key for quite some time now. If we can't hold it post-print, watch for lower VAMP.

$JPY (2nd largest $DXY component)

Despite the Yen edging off its lows, we're still under the BoJ initial intervention level. Can we get back above and squeeze some shorts or will this shit the bed post CPI? Trend remains🐻

Read 4 tweets
Daily Currency 🧵- Nov 9th, 2022


The dollar seems to continue to hold above momo and lower VAMP. These levels would need to break before we can talk about a confirmed dollar top / "peak dollar". Image
$EUR (largest $DXY component)

The EUR is still stuck around parity as bulls and bears fight for dominance. We are at upper VAMP so some significant momentum is going to need to appear quickly as this has almost 300bps of short-term downside risk.

$JPY (2nd largest $DXY component)

Similarly to the EUR, this is still unable to get above and run from its resistance level, with this one being the BoJ wall. Lower VAMP has yet to really lift off lows...

Read 4 tweets
DISCLAIMER : This is for educational purpose and not financial advise.

Monthly market analysis Oct 31, 2022

#StockMarket #DowJones best month since 1976

Let's look at more closely 🧵👇
1. After technical oversold and very negative sentiment in Sep month, #StockMarket was finally able to reverse direction this month. $DJIA had the best month since 1976 (+14%). $NDX was underperformed (5%) compared to $SPX (8.8%), $RUT(11%).

2. Let's look at US 10Y #Bond Yield price action. It was very volatile and tested 4.3% Jun'08 high before reversing -9.8% to the end of the month. This month it finished up 5.7%. RSI did not make new high at Oct 21 when it reached peak 4.33% (bearish reversal)
#StockMarket Image
Read 53 tweets
DISCLAIMER : This is for educational purpose and not financial advise.

Monthly market analysis Sep 30, 2022

#StockMarket Worst week, worst month, and worst quarter of the year since Financial crisis and dot-com bubble. Why it happened?

Let's look at more closely 🧵👇
1. After making reversal at H/S neckline in early Aug, US 10Y Yield #bond broke out from Feb'11 high 3.73% and have held up strongly for about a week. This month, yield has gone up +20%, bad for risk and long duration assets

#StockMarket Image
2. US 02Y Yield #bond broke out resistance 3.7% and past 4% strongly after Fed Reserve hawkish announcement and never look back. This month yield has gone up more than +22%

#StockMarket Image
Read 49 tweets
1/6 Busy day today in the markets,

Since I'm the type of trader who guides himself by the Price Action mainly, I prefer the phrase "show me the charts and I'll tell you the news" by Bernand Baruch.

Some thoughts below about #EURUSD #DXY .

CC: @JLinWins @deerpointmacro
2/6 Pre-Powell speech we had some headlines from #ECB officials signaling a potential 75bps rate hike due to #inflation and problems in the #EURO zone.
This caused $EURUSD to tap the supply area and perform a beautiful liquidity grab before resuming the current trend. Image
3/6 After losing the 1.00 / parity area, $EURUSD buyers must defend the $0.995 level. If we see that level taken out on a daily closing basis the target for this "bearish flag" pattern is $0.96 area, a -3.46% give or take.
Read 7 tweets
#analysis #10YRUS #DXY #crypto #SP500 #EURUSD #Bitcoin #ETH #EGLD

1/16 Good evening everyone,

All eyes where on the CPI, Core CPI and PPI reports this week. The slowdown in inflation is actually a confirmation that FED's demand destruction program starts to be felt by markets.
2/16 The 10YUS bonds are retesting now the "Neckline" of the daily Head&Shoulders. If buyers manage to push the price beyond 2.9% and close above it on a weekly closing basis, it means that the breakout was a fakeout and that might put a break to the RiskOn assets rally.
4/16 Continuing my idea from the last analysis, DXY looks toppy on monthly and it confirmed my fakeout theory. I still want to see more confirmation, meaning a clear weekly close under 105, but for now RiskOn assets are happy with this weaker DXY.

Read 17 tweets
#EURUSD 4hr Update


GA on FOMC day!

Watch for blue TL break. As long as PA is above this we can squeeze/spike higher b4 sell off resumes. We need a 4hr candle close below this TL b4 sellers come back in.

New fib ext drawn below. If we spike higher I will simple redraw

with new TL. New fib ext drawn as we had 2 green candle retracement during Asia WITHOUT completing 2 red candle closes below the previous swing lows at 0130. Complete candlestick structure requires 2 red candle closes below the swing low. If this doesn't occur and retraces

as we did during Asia with 2 green candles then we redraw the fib ext as above. If you aren't in a swing from above as I am and you are day trading... then good luck. If in swing positions shorts are still looking good and have not been invalidated.
GL and don't get chopped
Read 3 tweets
Ehi there #Crypto and #macro Twitter

Time for #market analysis #Number12!

"Quiet, before the storm"

I will explain here what happened since last week, and cover the broader #economy as it breaks

I will start from #onchain #BTC, going into #Technical Analysis + #macro🧵
First of all, if you want to have a deeper insight in what happened the week before, you should check my last #weekly #analysis

I'll put the link here for you:

But let's start digging into this week, should we?
Last week we experienced a rally in #crypto with #Eth leading the way with a speculative date on the merge happening on September 19th.

BTC managed to rally breaking the trendline at resistance and the realized price, but failed to maintain those as support ImageImageImage
Read 23 tweets
Depuis que l'Europe n'achète plus son énergie en Russie c'est la descente aux enfers 📉 pour l'Euro.

Les explications la dessous 👇🧵

Si on simplifie l'équation de l'économie (grossièrement), on peut se rendre compte que la création de richesses est une simple transformation d'énergie en richesse (qui servira à racheter de l'énergie).

En se basant sur ce principe, on peut se dire que l'économie = énergie.

Sachant cela, le prix de l'énergie est forcement un facteur clé pour la croissance.

Avant le conflit, les contrats commerciaux entre l'Europe et la Russie étaient basés sur l'Euro : c'est à dire que l'Europe payait son énergie russe en €.

Read 9 tweets

Pour la 1ère fois depuis 2002, l’EUR chute à 1.02 face au dollar #EURUSD

👉Comment en sommes-nous arrivés là ?
👉Quel impact sur notre quotidien d'Européen ?

#Thread 👇
Le mardi 5 Juillet, pour la 1ère fois depuis 20 ans, la monnaie EUR (€) s’est échangé à 1,02 face au dollar

Historiquement, c’est le niveau le plus bas que l’EUR est connu depuis 2002...
Même si ces sujets peuvent parfois sembler éloignés de notre quotidien (notamment pour ceux n’ayant pas un intérêt particulier pour la finance), nous verrons par la suite que cette dévaluation de l’euro concerne en réalité tous les Européens, dans leur quotidien
Read 45 tweets
Macro Analysis of FX. Putting my erstwhile FX trader hat on to analyze what is happening with global markets.

I see the #CrudeOil move, #EURUSD move as a flight to safety move into USD.

I'm trying to explain the causation of flow in below thread 🧵

What all is losing ground against #USD?
#CrudeOil 🔻8.32%
#EURUSD 🔻1.77%
#GBPUSD 🔻1.49%
#Gold 🔻2.1%
#BTC 🔻2.7%

All these are being sold against USD. The money doesn't leave the system. So where does it go?

In risk-off environment it goes to safe havens such as:
#USD, #CHF, #JPY, Long-Dated US bonds (30Y) & #GOLD.

While some G10 FX pairs have lost upwards of 1.5%, both safe-haven currencies of JPY(🔻0.11%) and CHF (🔻0.89%) are seen relatively stable when compared to other G10.

US30Y Yields are down (bonds are up) by🔻4%.
Read 7 tweets

1) Son toplantıda öne çıkan bu kelimeyi daha sık duyacağız gibi.🤔

Avrupa Merkez Bankası Yönetim Konseyi bugün "mevcut piyasa koşullarını tartışma" amacına özgü bir toplantı kararı aldı. Takvimde daha önce yer almayan bu görüşme yakından izleniyor.
2) Öncelikle #fragmentation kavramının ne anlama geldiğine bakalım o hâlde:

Türkçe olarak "parçalarına ayrılma, bölünme" şeklinde ifade edebileceğimiz bu kavram #ECB açısından para politikasının aktarım mekanizmasında bozulma işaretidir ki bu da politikanın etkisini azaltabilir.
3) Aşağıdaki grafikte 10 yıllık devlet tahvillerinin getirilerine yer verdim.

#Almanya en altta ve siyah eğriyle belirtilirken #Yunanistan mavi, #İtalya kırmızı, #İspanya sarı ve #Portekiz yeşil ile gösterilmiştir ve ayrışmaya daha önce dikkat çekmiştim.

#PIGS #Yields #Spread
Read 11 tweets
Precision in market timing & proper position sizing is a 90% determinant for the success of my leveraged trades!

There’s simply no other ways around this 🚀

#SnP500 #VIX
#NQ1 A highly probable roadmap for the coming weeks; but if this looks too obvious to you, my word of caution is that it'll be 20x the opposite in real-time especially when dealing with your open leveraged positions in the lower time-frames...

#PositionSizing Image
#NQ1 roadmap updated; #NotThereYet
#Nasdaq100 #QQQ Image
Read 44 tweets
¿Tienes un plan para tu capital cuándo el ciclo alcista crypto no sea tan fuerte?

Si la respuesta es no este hilo te interesa Image
Como muchos sabéis soy trader desde hace más de 6 años y lo que mas sigo operando son los CFD's

Estos mercados te permiten apalancarte, ajustar un lotaje de riesgo y lo más importante comprar y vender cualquier activo
Los CFD's son contratos por diferencia, os dejo el link a la primera parte del curso que estoy terminando

Introducción al Trading de CFD's…

Esto significa que pueden graficar cualquier mercado y tú puedes beneficiarte de sus subidas y bajadas
Read 16 tweets
Forex Live 1/5: FX #options expiries for 14 Apr 10am NY cut
There are some sizable ones layered for #EURUSD closer towards 1.1900 but also near current levels, even for tomorrow, so that might attract price action with key resist seen closer towards 1.1990-00 region at the moment
Forex Live 2/5: That said, the dollar looks vulnerable across the board with 10-year #Treasury yields also sitting on the cusp of a soft bottom closer to 1.60%, so there's that to consider.

Going over to #USDJPY, that has seen the pair fall below 109.00 - where there are some
Forex Live 3/5: modest and chunky expiries seen this week.
Technically speaking, the break below 109.00 also sees the pair likely to push lower to test the 23 March low @ 108.40 so this just adds to the conviction.

All of that ties together with general dollar sentiment and how
Read 5 tweets
Credit Suisse 1/5: Today’s highlights
#EURUSD has surged higher to our recovery target of 1.1950/92 – the 38.2% retracement of the Q1 fall, mid-March highs and 55-day average and our bias remains to look for the rebound to ideally end here.
Credit Suisse 2/5: #USDJPY has broken support from the 23.6% retracement of the Q1 rally at 108.99, which is seen exposing more important support at 108.55/33. Failure to hold this latter area would see a top complete.
Credit Suisse 3/5: #EURGBP not maintains a base above .8643/65 as well as a bullish “reversal week” and we look for a deeper recovery to .8732 initially, then .8851/61.

#GBPUSD above 1.3783 would see a minor base complete to suggest the trend is shifting sideways.
Read 5 tweets
Danske Bank 1/4: Tactical FX Views.
#EURUSD - Has bounced back slightly in line with equities. We remain short, as per our 2021 top trade.

#EURNOK - as a strategic trade we like to sell NOK vs an equal weighted basket of #EUR and USD.
Danske Bank 2/4: #EURSEK - The krona firmly defied last week's substantial dividend payouts, in line with our expectation. Focus shifts to this week's inflation data. We expect #EURSEK to re-establish the 10.10-10.20 range for now.
Danske Bank 3/4: #EURGBP: We would like to go short $EURGBP again if increases continue. Keep an eye on Northern Ireland riots and Scottish Parliament election on 6 May

#USDJPY - spot starting to be priced as it was pre-corona as US yields and oil now move spot.
Read 4 tweets
ING Bank 1/4: #Eurozone: Waiting for the European phoenix
1Q21 will not be remembered as the finest hours of European politics. The glacial roll-out of vaccination programmes and the ‘crown jewel’ of the EU’s fiscal stimulus – the EU’s €750bn Recovery Fund –
ING Bank 2/4: is gathering dust in a Karlsruhe courtroom stand in stark contrast to the achievements in the US. Yet all is not lost. European manufacturing is holding up well and there are signs of life in the EU vaccine roll-out.
ING Bank 3/4: Our #EURUSD profile is slightly dimmed, but we still expect the #EUR to arise from the ashes of European policy. It should be in a position to challenge 1.25 – though probably not now until the third quarter.
Read 4 tweets
Danske Bank 1/4: #EURUSD finished last week slightly below 1.19, having rallied since Easter. This week, focus will likely turn to US inflation, which is set to accelerate towards 2.5% as well as a number of #Fed speeches.
#forex #forextrade #forextrading #fxstreet #trading
Danske Bank 2/4: Naturally, market will also focus if dollar weakness can be sustained further. With inflation set to rise and the theme of repricing yields having stalled, there may be scope for Fed to push the dollar lower here.
Danske Bank 3/4: In our base case, though, we see levels above 1.19 as good for selling #EURUSD.
#EURGBP continues to trade below 0.87 amid AstraZeneca issues, lower vaccine deliveries, Northern Ireland riots and the upcoming Scottish Parliament election on 6 May.
Read 4 tweets
Credit Suisse 1/5: #EURUSD remains unable to clear its 200d avge & strength stays seen as corrective #EURUSD remains unable to clear its 200d avge, now at 1.1896 & our bias remains to view recent strength as just a corrective recovery following the fall to our 1.1695 first core Image
Credit Suisse 2/5: downside target. Supp for a setback remains seen at 1.1867/60 initially, below which can see a small top complete to ease the immediate upside bias for a fall back to 1.1823/22, which we look to hold initially. Below 1.1795/87 though is needed to confirm a more
Credit Suisse 3/5: decisive rejection of the 200-day average has been seen, clearing the way for a move back to 1.1737, then a retest of 1.1703/1.1695.
A sustained move above 1.1896 can see strength extend to the 38.2% retracement of the entire 2021 fall at 1.1948/50,
Read 5 tweets
Credit Suisse 1/5: Today’s #Forex highlights
#EURGBP not only maintains a base above .8643/65 but the close above .8574 on Friday has also seen a bullish “reversal week” established to reinforce the likelihood for a deeper recovery to .8732 initially, then .8851/61.
Credit Suisse 2/5: #GBPUSD maintains a bearish “reversal day” to keep the risk lower in its range with supp seen at 1.3641, then 1.3514.

#EURCHF continues to weigh heavily on the bottom of its recent range at 1.1004/1.0994, below which would confirm a top & a correction lower.
Credit Suisse 3/5: #EURUSD continues to struggle to clear its 200-day average at 1.1896 and the current strength stays seen as a temporary and corrective move higher.
Read 5 tweets
KBC Bank 1/4: The economic calendar contains US CPI today. Consensus lies at 1.5% y/y for both headline and core measures. Inflation is gradually becoming a topic in markets thinking with US market-based inflation expectations reaching ever higher levels.
KBC Bank 2/4: For today however, the reading probably won’t have a dramatic impact. We more look forward to US 10-yr bond sale later today. Will the recent rise in long rates suffice to offset the increased inflation (and perhaps sovereign credit) risks markets see to the fiscal
KBC Bank 3/4: and monetary abundancy? A smooth auction would probably ease such fears. This could solidify the 1.2% (10-yr) and 2% (30-yr) technical resistance areas, but only for the short term. It could keep the USD in a less beneficial position as well,
Read 4 tweets
KBC Bank 1/4: The big reflation trade took a moment to catch its breath yesterday. Circumstances were ideal with no important data scheduled to trigger abrupt market moves. Equities finished broadly unchanged after erasing earlier losses, both in the EMU and the US.
KBC Bank 2/4: Core bond yields traded choppy and below recent (recovery) highs. The US kicked off its bond sales with 3yr tenor. The auction went smoothly but didn’t impact markets. US Treasuries edged higher at the long end of the curve, sending rates marginally lower driven by
KBC 3/4: the real yield component. German yields ended a volatile trading day flat. Peripheral yield spreads widened just 1 bps. #USD traded on the back foot even as risk sentiment was fragile. #EURUSD took out intermediate resist around 1.208 to finish session north of 1.21again
Read 4 tweets

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