Thread by @Tennesseine

Daily update on my #CovidDataProject to track the #COVID19 pandemic and hold Trump & the @gop accountable by determining avoidable deaths. Today’s numbers and comments, with predictions. (Thread.)

Total deaths: 14736
Avoidable deaths: 13078 (89%)

Trends & predictions: glad to

report that US case growth has slowed for the 3rd day in a row, demonstrating that local and state efforts are starting to succeed where @realdonaldtrump & the @gop failed so criminally & miserably. We could have total containment as early as November barring any surprises.

But

we can’t let our guard down. Thanks to @gop incompetence & greed, we started way too late, so our growth rate is still far above the global average and as of today, 28% of all #COVID19 cases are in the US, almost 7x our per-capita share.

Unfortunately our case fatality rate is

continuing to climb, now at almost 3.5%, and I predict it will be equal to the global average within two weeks.

Further predictions that I hope I’m wrong about: tomorrow we’ll hit 16,778 deaths and probably overtake Spain in total deaths three days earlier than I’d originally

forecasted. I still think we’ll hit one million cases by ~the 19th and 100k deaths before the end of the month, though I’m cautiously optimistic that with hard work & some luck we might yet avoid that fate, no thanks to Trump.

#TrumpPlague
#TrumpLiesAmericansDie
#coviddatachat

Of course, what could blow up all predictions is if we finally get our shit together on testing to overcome Trump’s incompetence and then realize we’re actually just seeing the tip of the iceberg. Wouldn’t be surprising given that we’re in a pathetic 43rd place in #Covid testing.