Thread by @MilesCorak

In one hour @StatCan_eng will release the jobs numbers.

They will refer to one particular week in March, from Sunday the 15th to Saturday the 21st, and are a one-week picture, just a single frame in a movie that has now been running for more than a month.

#cdnecon #cdnmedia

The employment numbers will be an obvious headline, and there will also be a big jump in unemployment, but both of these statistics needed to be rounded out to capture the full extent of the #COVID19 fallout

#cdnecon #cdnmedia

.@StatCan_eng classifies someone as "employed" if they have at least one hour of paid work in an employer-employee relationship (self-employment aside), so reductions in hours of work, don't reflected in the employment totals

#cdnecon #cdnmedia

.@StatCan_eng anchors the definition of "unemployment" on active or passive job search, and many people may not look for work given no jobs are available, so discouraged workers are not reflected in the official unemployment rate

#cdnmedia #cdnecon

A supplemental unemployment rate that @StatCan_eng calls R8, captures both involuntary part-time workers, and discouraged workers, rounds out the picture.

In the dashboard I've made, I've called this "the comprehensive unemployment rate"

#cdnecon #cdnmedia

You can access "Canada's Labour Market Dashboard" here:
milescorak.shinyapps.io/JobsAndUnemplo…

I will update it after 8:30 with the most recent @StatCan_eng data.

It focuses on information I suggest is a priority in this post:

milescorak.com/2020/04/03/wha…

#cdnecon #cdnmedia

If #cdnmedia is looking for interpretations @StatCan_eng release, some people I have been learning from on these issues are: @BrendonBernard_ @stephenfgordon @trevortombe @tammyschirle @kevinmilligan , and @PhilSmith26 a former Assistant Chief Statistician @StatCan_eng

#cdnecon

The economy is falling into a deep corona-coma, losing all the employment gains made since November 2016, as @StatCan_eng reports that the number of Canadians holding a job dropped by one million between February and March.

www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quoti…

#cdnecon #cdnmedia

@StatCan_eng reports that young people are the first causalities of the economic fallout from #COVID19

"Among youth aged 15 to 24, employment decreased by 392,500 (-15.4%) in March, the fastest rate of decline across the three main age groups"

www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quoti…

#cdnecon

@StatCan_eng has written a particularly detailed and well rounded summary of the March 2020 labour market, highlighting the important nuances necessary to make sense of the economic impact of #COVID19

Read it in its entirety

www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quoti…

#cdnecon

Here is my take on what the @StatCan_eng job numbers tell us, and don't tell us, about the economic fallout of #covid19Canada via @macleans

macleans.ca/economy/econom…

#cdnecon

My "Canada's Labour Market" dashboard is now updated with March 2020 @StatCan_eng Labour Force Survey data.

Feel free to use it to visualize the historic changes that took place last month #cdnecon

milescorak.shinyapps.io/JobsAndUnemplo…

Between the middle of February and the middle of March the Canadian economy lost all of the growth in employment since November 2016, more than three years of job gains lost in one month.

#cdnecon

All of the employment gains in Wholesale and Retail trade since 2013 have been wiped out in one month

#COVID #cdnecon

Those employed in the "Accommodation and Food Services" sector have gone from work to wait-and-see unemployment, all job growth in this sector over the last 20 years has been wiped out.

#cdnecon #COVID

Remember all of this is a picture of what happened between March 15th and 21st, only a single frame in a movie that is still playing, like most horror films it is only going to get worse

See @StatCan_eng very detailed and well written analysis

www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quoti…

#cdnecon

Feel free to use my Canada's Labour Market dashboard to make your own pictures of some important @StatCan_eng Labour Force Survey data

Here is the link to the dashboard milescorak.shinyapps.io/JobsAndUnemplo…

And here is an explainer of the data I prioritized
milescorak.com/2020/04/03/wha…

#cdnecon

The obvious headline statistics is the official unemployment rate, and its rise to 7.8% in March from 5.6% in February should be taken only as a signal of bigger increases to come.

#cdnecon #COVIDー19

It's not a perfect measure of the under utilization of human potential, but it does make clear that young people and women took the burnt of the initial fallout of #COVIDー19 #cdnecon

A comprehensive unemployment rate, what @StatCan_eng calls R8, recognizes that some jobless people are discouraged from looking for work, and some people with jobs have experienced involuntary cuts work hours

This statistic almost reaches one-in-four 15 to 24 year olds

#cdnecon

The number of Canadians unemployed for one month or less, those that started a spell of unemployment since the last survey in February, has doubled to almost 900,000
#cdnecon

How things unfold, and whether this recession will be V-shaped, U-shaped, or bathtub shaped, will be reflected in how things work out for this group in the coming months.

If they experience a short spell of temporary unemployment followed by a recall, as the Federal government's wage subsidy program is gambling on, all good.

In fact we have never seen so many unemployed considering themselves to be temporarily laid off

#cdnecon

Nothing out of the ordinary has happened to the unemployed who were permanently laid off, just the usual seasonal up and down. #cdnecon

This bodes really well for a V-shape recovery, because unemployment due to temporary layoffs are usually of much shorter length than that due to permanent layoffs.

But the longest unemployment spells are for those whose expected a recall that turned out to be mistaken

#cdnecon

And this is what makes the Corona-coma recession different: can enterprises had on long enough to be in a position to rehire workers when the health risks finally decline?

If not, look for very long spells of unemployment and a weak labour market bounce back.

#cdnecon

There is a lot more to look at in my dashboard, so feel free to use it at milescorak.shinyapps.io/JobsAndUnemplo…

but @StatCan_eng is your source for the complete data

www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quoti…

#cdnecon

The Labour Force Survey for 75 years, a system that has been at the core of how Canadians see themselves.

Frankly, I want to be the first to give a major thank you to all the public servants @StatCan_eng who worked hard to produce such a timely and high quality product

#cdnecon

I suspect a good deal has changed since I published this tweet, but still, it merits saying that an efficient and professional public service is making all the difference for Canadians as #COVIDー19 hits our health and our #cdnecon

https://twitter.com/MilesCorak/status/1244028505568002048?s=20

I meant to say "hand on"