Thread by @StefSimanowitz

.@AndyMacaskill: Why didn’t your team start reviewing & modelling the consequences of lockdown until mid-March?

@uksciencechief: We modelled all scenarios throughout February

AM: John Edmunds told us neither he or @neil_ferguson carried out any modelling

Neil Ferguson’s calculations were the basis for the govt’s #HerdImmunity strategy until 16/3 & he realised it was based on ‘flawed assumptions’ (or as govt said “the science changed”).

John Edmunds was key to govt modelling (here with @tomaspueyo on 14/3)

Patrick Vallance - clearly irritated by @AndyMacaskill’s follow-up question - says “the modelling came in from a lot of different sources”.

It is inconceivable that Edmunds & Ferguson weren’t central to - or atleast fully informed of - any modelling.
google.co.uk/amp/s/mobile.r…

This means that either:

1. Edmunds & Ferguson are wrong; or

2. Patrick Vallance is wrong; or

3. Andy McKaskill & @StephenGrey & @Reuters are wrong.

If it is either 1 or 2, this could signal splits in SAGE as the govt tries to put the blame on them for the current chaos.

Yesterday’s question👆by @AndyMacaskill was one of the first really penetrating questions asked by a journalist during weeks of @10DowningStreet daily #coronavirus briefings.

Here are 20 more that could be asked (via @campbellclaret). #Corona19 #COVID2019 thearticle.com/media-question…