Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Herd_Immunity

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The curious case of #Sweden

In contrast to other countries Sweden’s confinement measures against #SARS_COV_2 are softer. Their data are for some prove of irresponsible opportunism, for others that the rest overreacted.

Both are (for now) wrong. Long thread on data and nuance./1
Let’s start by debunking some “myths”:
1) and foremost, no, Sweden is not actively pursuing #Herd_Immunity as strategy.
According to Tegnell, Sweden’s state epidemiologist, herd immunity is a *potential* end state, not a potential response strategy.
So what is their strategy? /2
As in other countries their objectives are epidemic peak mitigation while having as little casualties as possible. Math models, as that of the Imperial College, showed millions of deaths if #corona is left unchecked (changing UK and US strategies)./3
imperial.ac.uk/news/196234/co…
Read 34 tweets
8TH APRIL: PREDICTION
Within a few weeks opening UK schools will become a political battleground.

Initially the RW ignored Covid19, the propaganda machine focused on telling us it was scaremongering

When the truth dawned, they were left rudderless for a while.
After the media tried to sell us #Herd_Immunity telling us Britain was more nuanced without scrutinizing the policy, I thought the govs u-turn would being common sense

But they ruined it within an hour by doing this.
The gov swung from Herd Immunity to announcing a lockdown, but the change from keyworkers to work from home makes me believe that they decided to risk the spreak of infection to keep more of the economy going.

I think Herd Immunity is still the strategy
threadreaderapp.com/thread/1243828…
Read 30 tweets
This was @CMO_England two weeks ago explaining why govt hadn’t banned large gatherings & closed pubs, restaurants, schools etc.

"We do need to do it at the last reasonable point” he says.

Today, along with the PM & Health Sec, he come down with #Convid19
Chris Whitty was speaking here on 12 March.

If was 4 more days before the govt realised the scientific modelling upon which they’d based their #Herd_Immunity strategy was wrong.

They did a U-turn on 16 March, but it was too late. #coronavirus #COVID19
Virtually every epidemiologist across the world was saying the same thing: “You need to act quickly to combat #coronavirus.”

Chris Whitty & Patrick Vallance’s view that “we don’t want to act too soon” is why UK is seeing a steep rise in #COVID19 deaths.
Read 4 tweets
What do we know about #covid19UK?
What should you do?

One thing growing faster than covid is keyboard experts.
There are no real experts, including me. But at least I'm an (ex) viral scientist. I give facts and sources.

Ignore those who don't.

A thread on "facts" and learning
🧠1/

Some GENERAL Advice.

No one knows anything for sure on #CoronaVirusUpdate
This is the quote from the W.H.O. when they politely admonished UKGov for killing us on bad science.

If someone says the "science changed" THAT is a lie. It means they ignored the dangers. BADLY.
It's an abuse of English to say science changed. Science changes all the time, that's the definition of science!

To theorise and prove!

So when we make decisions with science - for example, whether #herd_immunity is a thing, that's actually a theory, and we ask how likely it is
Read 31 tweets
There are nasty Chinese racists out there on #covid19. People calling for death, war, blame.

These imbeciles are wrong, obscene, and they're covering up.

The Chinese are heroes who bought us time.
If you want to hate - hate those who then burned it and made it worse. Thread⬇️
Almost everything we know about #covid19UK comes from China and from the people who died so we could learn.

Almost every treatment we have comes from China, and from those who died so we can learn.

Don't believe me go look at the W.H.O.

who.int/docs/default-s…
It's true it didn't start well.
The doctor who found it was arrested and sanctioned.
He was released and soon after died, trying to save his patients.

Have any of you ever worked with the worst of local counsellors - that's the level of the people who made those mistakes
Read 23 tweets
@peterjukes @BorisJohnson 1/. It was actually TEN days ago that @BorisJohnson first mentioned the ‘take in on the chin’ theory.

He told it to @Schofe & @hollywills on #ThisMorning on Thursday, 5 March.

A clip of him saying this was tweeted by @mvdct on the same day.

What happened next was remarkable...
@peterjukes @BorisJohnson @Schofe @hollywills @mvdct On Sunday evening, after a tip off from @CereinynOrd (follow her for #coronavirus), I tracked down the clip of the interview.

The clip beings with Boris saying: "One of the theories is, that perhaps you could take it on the chin, take it all in one go..."
@peterjukes @BorisJohnson @Schofe @hollywills @mvdct @CereinynOrd 3./ He goes on: "...& allow the disease, as it were, to move through the population, without taking as many draconian measures. I think we need to strike a balance."

To me there were two possible explanations for what Boris had said.

The second far more chilling than the first.
Read 61 tweets
An open letter to the Government on the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak response by the British Society for Immunology.

#COVID19 #Herd_Immunity #AskForEvidence
@britsocimm @bengoldacre @doctor_oxford @dr_mattmorgan
immunology.org/news/bsi-open-…
"The UK leads the world for the quality of our immunology research. Given our current lack of knowledge on SARS-CoV-2, our community of immunologists have two asks."
"Firstly, we feel more needs to be done to ensure social distancing to limit the number of COVID-19 cases in the short term, especially for vulnerable members of our communities."
Read 7 tweets
1/2 Just deleted two tweets because my twitter app missposted them smack in the middle of this thread.

Here's the first post: talkmarkets.com/content/ism-ma… ImageImageImageImage
Here's the second post:

Renaissance Technologies. ImageImageImageImage
Worth noting that this announcement from the FED, although ignored by most Mainstream media outlets precipitated an unprecedented worldwide flash crash last week. reuters.com/article/us-usa… ImageImageImage
Read 178 tweets

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