Thread by @pmdfoster

Key tweet in an excellent #brexit (remember Brexit?) thread from @MichaelAodhan - UK and EU are looking at the Irish Protocol and its mechanism from almost opposite ends of the telescope. To reach agreement will require realism from BOTH sides. /1

https://twitter.com/MichaelAodhan/status/1255839466922663936

@MichaelAodhan On the question of NI-GB and what 'unfettered access' means worth looking at @michaelgove letter to EU Commons cmme on April 8 which talks about "no tariffs, no import processes, and no checks" as goods *arrive* in Liverpool and Scotland /2

committees.parliament.uk/committee/176/…

@MichaelAodhan @michaelgove The letter is silent on the question of Export Declarations (and not clear why it only singles out Liverpool and Scotland, rather than 'Wales, England and Scotland) - but legally looks like NI biz will fill out export summary decs into GB. A one-page form.../3

@MichaelAodhan @michaelgove But what happens on landing in GB has always been - from EU p.o.v - a question for UK Govt and its risk appetite.

Worth recalling HM Treasury objections/fears on this - but it would seem from @michaelgove letter these are being ignored /4

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1202954135034875908?s=20

@MichaelAodhan @michaelgove Of course, the much bigger issue is GB-NI and the extent to which goods flowing in this direction will face checks.

You will recall industry estimates of £6,000 per mixed container in additional costs of a full customs border /5

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1234905203989762056?s=20

@MichaelAodhan @michaelgove It's not that a deal is impossible, but if the EU is going to treat Belfast like Rotterdam, that is clearly going to be a problem.

The EU can say 'you signed it, deal with it' but it is a bit more complex than that.../6

@MichaelAodhan @michaelgove Recall that the point of any Irish Protocol was to protect the Irish Peace Process while enabling Brexit to still happen.

The Tory Right rejected @theresa_may
all UK solution (a customs Union in all but name) and signed this NI-only version. /7

@MichaelAodhan @michaelgove @theresa_may This was in place instead of ludicrous 'alternative arrangements' plan for new NI-RoI trade border - but we shouldn't lose overall sight of the fact that both sides have an obligation to peace and stability in NIreland. /8

@MichaelAodhan @michaelgove @theresa_may There is, to be honest, grandstanding on both sides.

UK did nothing to help itself by intimating earlier this year that it wouldn't properly implement the protocol, which freaked out EU side (see threads passim) BUT EU will need to flex on GB-NI customs border./9

@MichaelAodhan @michaelgove @theresa_may Separately there is the question whether, frankly, it is responsible to do all of this by December 31 when civil servants on both sides of Irish Sea been heavily diverted onto #COVID #Coronavirus duties /10

https://twitter.com/bbcgarethg/status/1255485278782881799?s=12

@MichaelAodhan @michaelgove @theresa_may The Government is wedded to 'no extension' mantra, which risks looking utterly reckless if - come next October/November - we're deep in second wave of Covid19 and essentially the UK didn't bother to take out the insurance policy to give it more time. /11

@MichaelAodhan @michaelgove @theresa_may Remember #Brexit is 'done' - legally, the guillotine has fallen.

Remember the MAX extension from July 1 is TWO years.

Is that SO long, when we're laying plans for the next 50 years or more? /12

None of us know how #Coronavirus is going to play out yet - is it a short sharp shock, or the start of a deep and prolonged global economic slump?

Amid such uncertainty, on what basis is UK Govt pinning its hopes on a revival of global trade? /13

But for now on we dash, pell-mell, to a place that - even back in January - was causing industry to start to howl - aviation, ports, haulage, autos, chemicals, medicines, food and drink, supermarkets...they have two months until June 30 to make a case. /14

And as @MichaelAodhan observes, the fallout has the potential to land hardest on Northern Ireland, the part of the United Kingdom arguable least economically able to absorb the impacts, though how much anyone in Westminster cares about that, I doubt.

So for now, onwards... ENDS