(1/11)
Q: What might socializing look like when #ShelterInPlace orders are lifted?
A: #SocialDistancing will remain important when shelter-in-place orders are lifted. More about what to expect in this thread
(2/11)
For many regions, the elements needed to reopen society have not yet been achieved:
📉declining rates of infection,
🧪adequate testing supply, and
👥the ability to trace the contacts of new infections to appropriately isolate and treat.
(3/11)
When shelter-in-place orders are lifted, restructuring social networks is one approach to minimizing the spread of infection.
(4/11)
A #socialnetwork includes all the people you come in contact with during daily activities. Think about housemates, co-workers, friends, and extended family. Expanding social networks outside households could be challenging as many social networks (and their germs) overlap.
(5/11)
Scientists are studying a variety of approaches that would allow us to expand social contact by making it more difficult for pods or bubbles to connect.
Some examples of these new approaches, and why they can be useful, are detailed in the next few posts in this thread
(6/11)
🌐Geographic constraints – Geographic constraints would liberalize contacts within a defined area like a neighborhood but would decrease the ability of a virus to travel to the next geographic area.
(7/11)
👨👩👦👦Repeat contacts – Interacting with the same group of people repeatedly, like co-workers or family members, decreases the number of encounters with other social networks.
(8/11)
👯♀️Similar contacts – Individuals with similar profiles, like individuals who live alone or families with small children, joining pods or bubbles to reduce isolation while limiting contact with other networks.
(9/11)
It’s exciting to consider seeing friends and family again, but expanding social networks has many hurdles.
First, they are difficult to apply broadly to real social networks of mothers, grandchildren, best friends, and co-workers.
(10/11)
Second, the risk for infection within expanded pods remains. One infection could spread quickly through a pod.
Third, and perhaps most important, the pods RELY ON TRUST. Expansion of pods requires all members to follow the same rules of exclusivity.
1/ Q: Has almost everyone been infected with COVID by now?
A: Recent estimates suggest around 58% of the population in the US and over 70% in England have been previously infected, with BIG increases during the Omicron wave.
3/ ➡️ During the Omicron wave from December 2021-February 2022, this estimate increased from 33% to 58%.
➡️ Rates vary a lot by age, ranging from 33.2% for those over age 65 to 75% for those under age 18.
2/ Not likely. If your kids are suddenly getting sick a lot, this is likely due to “catching up” on exposures rather than a weakened immune system.
3/ Many families w/ young kids have been hunkered down for the better part of 2 years– a good % of a young child’s entire life. While isolation had *many* downsides, we can agree that not having to suction snot out of infant noses or clean up norovirus puke was a happy upside.
1/ Q: Are cases peaking? That means it’s all downhill from here, right?
A: Sort of…. Remember that even if cases come down as quickly as they rise, there will be as many cases *after* the peak as before (think area under the curve).
2/ ➡️ And if the downward slope is *slower* than the rise, we will see *more* cases during the decline from a surge.
3/ Burning fast could be a silver lining of super transmissible #Omicron. Cases rose & fell quickly in S. Africa (w/ hospitalizations & deaths still lagging). The UK appears to have turned the Omicron corner. Many US states appear past their peak in cases, w/ regional variation:
Unfortunately, this includes New Year’s Eve plans. The perfect storm of a new variant & holiday get-togethers is hitting communities & health care w/ FORCE! Testing is in short supply.
3/ Health care is under extreme pressure with surging cases. If you can avoid even one additional contact, you are helping. This is a temporary and urgent request (from a health care provider).