Boosting Population Immunity
We need to dev this crucial understanding 1st among dr and then the lay public to grasp the concept of population immunity
Unless #HerdImmunity is estb & sustained in the community, we will continue to experience outbreaks of infectious diseases
We need to dev this crucial understanding 1st among dr and then the lay public to grasp the concept of population immunity
Unless #HerdImmunity is estb & sustained in the community, we will continue to experience outbreaks of infectious diseases
In the case of measles with Ro 12-18 (index case can pass to 12-18 others & it cascades exponentially) 95% of the community must be immune. With the vaccine this require 95% coverage of the population.
For pneumococcal this is lower. Early US studies suggests an uptake of 65-75%
For pneumococcal this is lower. Early US studies suggests an uptake of 65-75%
We think the Ro #COVID is bet 2.0-2.5 We can only guess a coverage of 60-70% to achieve herd immunity
1st we need to identify the high risk gp who do badly when infected with covid
These r the ones we need to lockdown until a protective herd immunity has developed
1st we need to identify the high risk gp who do badly when infected with covid
These r the ones we need to lockdown until a protective herd immunity has developed
We hope @KKMPutrajaya can shed some light on this vital info which will help shape this targeted lockdown policies.
Meanwhile, we have to utilize data from elsewhere:
1. The elderly citizens are especially vulnerable to covid infection. thestar.com.my/lifestyle/heal… @DrDzul @boosulyn
Meanwhile, we have to utilize data from elsewhere:
1. The elderly citizens are especially vulnerable to covid infection. thestar.com.my/lifestyle/heal… @DrDzul @boosulyn
China CDC Data: Case Fatality Rates for the age groups are: 40-49yr: 0.4%; 60-69yr: 3.6%; 70-79yr: 8%; >80yr: 14.8% (37 times)
2. Co-morbidities are at high risk for covid: None: CFR 0.9%; CVS: 10.5% (12X); Diabetes: 7.3%; COPD: 6.3%; Hypertension: 6%; Cancer: 5.6%.
2. Co-morbidities are at high risk for covid: None: CFR 0.9%; CVS: 10.5% (12X); Diabetes: 7.3%; COPD: 6.3%; Hypertension: 6%; Cancer: 5.6%.
The diag illustrates the no with co-morbidities which the US needs to lockdown to protect from severe and fatal covid infections
3. Those in nursing homes
It seems more sensible to isolate these high risk indv rather than a blanket lockdown policy.
3. Those in nursing homes
It seems more sensible to isolate these high risk indv rather than a blanket lockdown policy.
Must monitor all assoc with high risk indv 2 prevent transmit covid 2 them.
A phased out exit strategy instead of across zones/states/green-red hotspots to allow essential mixing to generate the dev of population immunity within the low-risk subset of the community @mohdhelmi
A phased out exit strategy instead of across zones/states/green-red hotspots to allow essential mixing to generate the dev of population immunity within the low-risk subset of the community @mohdhelmi
Need to learn from Hokkaido experience which loosened restrictions and festered local transmissions of #COVID in the community, not foreign importations as alluded by a few. time.com/5826918/hokkai…
Since these activities are taken at the plateau of the epi curve, our health care services are protected and not overwhelmed.
The gentle lockdown strategy of South Korea/Hong Kong/Taiwan allowing controlled social/economic activity is preferable to the Swedish model TBC
The gentle lockdown strategy of South Korea/Hong Kong/Taiwan allowing controlled social/economic activity is preferable to the Swedish model TBC
@threadreaderapp unroll
