Thread by @drmusanordin

Undoubtedly we have done well to bend the #Covid Epidemic Curve.
Provided no surges/surprises we on track to seriously chart a Safe & Middle of the Road Exit Strategy
-not too rapid; invites another #COVID19 wave
-not too slow, will hurt the battered economy @DrDzul @boosulyn

The first crucial element of a COVID-19 exit strategy is massive testing.
This was reaffirmed by WHO when it stated:
a. That transmission must be controlled
b. Early case-finding, testing, isolating … is essential for stopping transmission.

The EU research group:The availability of large-scale testing…is a precondition for lifting social distancing measures in the future m.facebook.com/mccc.my/

The Australians who have flattened their curve and are seeing declining numbers of new cases have posited the following 2 of 3 exit strategies:
a. A more extensive testing regime (including asymptomatic people)
b. Industrial scale contact tracing

Testing is important for:
a. Diagnosing infection-Tells government the running rate of infections and which interventions works and which do not. Isolates new cases, trigger contact tracing and stop spread of disease

Better testing will allow Malaysia to ease MCO, because COVID patients are removed from social circulation.
b. Confirming immunity- Healthy immune persons can return to work. Those infected can be treated.

Testing demands:
a. Adequate testing kits
b. Adequate PPEs for screening stations and front-liners
 Benchmarking Testing:
Against comparators who are seeing single digit cases/day; declining numbers and now easing physical distancing eg Australia, South Korea, New Zealand

Malaysia: COVID positive rate 4.2%
South Korea: 1.8% (11,700/million)
Australia: 1.3% (20,300/million)
 
The lower the #Covid positive rate the better
@kkm surely is not satisfied sitting at 4.2% with high risk groups in our backyard

a 6.7 million  migrant workers (200K in S’pore contributed to their Dormitory Cluster)
b 175,000 refugees
c a recurring Tabligh cluster
d 70% of our importation case from Indonesia
e we’ve yet to see data on our HCW positive rate
f ? political cluster themalaysianinsight.com/s/240784

g. asymptomatic #COVID19 positive cluster is worrying
10 studies quoted an incidence of 40%
They silently spread #COVID19 infection
Likely main reason for the unlinked/sporadic cases where no index case was identified
testing at hot spots/high risk groups would bias our pick up

I would suggest random sentinel testing (like influenza) at various geographical areas for early detection
If @KKMPutrajaya utilize tracking app technology, testing can be better targeted to those people traced to be in close proximity with the index #COVID19 case.

Success does not = zero covid case.
Upon relaxing #MCO we will continue to see outbreaks
We must be able to act quickly and stamp out new covid cases
Only possible with an effective Testing-Tracking-Rapid Response process in place
It means zero tolerance for new cases/clusters

Tribute and Salute to our #FrontLineHeroes

@threadreaderapp unroll