As an ER doctor, my biggest concern right now is that many view the current situation with #COVID19 as a death match between public health & the economy. This thinking is totally wrong & will lead to both more people dying AND the economy failing to rebound. Here's why... (1/13)
I've been a doctor for 17 years in a rural part of Michigan, a state that's been hit especially hard by the #coronavirus #pandemic. I see up close the battle between “health” and the “economy” that seems to be playing out across our states’ capitols and in Washington DC. (2/13)
The very real economic misery caused by our necessary response to the current public health crisis is leading to alarming policy developments. Some politicians and a very vocal minority of citizens are calling to “open the economy,” irrespective of the health consequences. (3/13)
Protests in mid-April & last week in Lansing, Michigan made national headlines as armed individuals descended upon my state capitol demanding their right to go back to work, and apparently go to the beach & out to eat. They believe "the cure is worse than the disease." (4/13)
Now there's data suggesting the gathering of these large groups of largely unmasked individuals in a central location has led to a rise in cases of #COVID19 in rural parts of my state. Behavior like this will only prolong the health crisis & *delay* the economic recovery. (5/13)
While it's true that we “flattened the curve” in the epicenter of the U.S. version of the #pandemic (New York), the overall number of new cases every day in America is NOT going down. This is a key benchmark many other nations achieved before relaxing safety measures. (6/13)
This is critical: Despite the large *cumulative* number of tests done in the U.S., our *per-day* testing rate is 1/4 to 1/3 what's needed. So we must assume we have yet to see the "peak" & do not know where any individual community or state lies on their respective curve. (7/13)
The point of flattening the curve is to decrease the likelihood of overwhelming our hospitals & minimize the total number of deaths. The point of locking down over the last 4-6 weeks? To decrease infectivity & build up a testing program to safely and smartly re-open. (8/13)
But just as @realdonaldtrump wasted February dismissing the severity of this crisis, he's wasted the last month blaming governors & making dangerous medical recommendations while the necessary national testing program is still MIA. This will have economic ramifications... (9/13)
If we rush to “open up” the economy without data needed to do it right, there will be a brief uptick of economic activity followed by a significant increase in cases of #COVID19, followed predictably by increased hospitalizations & unnecessary deaths. (10/13)
Significant economic damage has been done already, but it will be *worse* with a series of openings & closings in fits & starts while the body count rises. If the federal government embraces the challenge of testing, it CAN be done. We still have time to get this right. (11/13)
This is what it takes:
Step 1: Use the #DPA so states have enough tests, swabs and reagents.
Step 2: Use federal dollars to employ a public health army to carry out tracing of contacts of infected people.
Step 3: Use the White House guidelines for opening.
(12/13)
Step 1: Use the #DPA so states have enough tests, swabs and reagents.
Step 2: Use federal dollars to employ a public health army to carry out tracing of contacts of infected people.
Step 3: Use the White House guidelines for opening.
(12/13)
Look, nobody's happy with what's happening to our way of life. But to get past this, we'll need to be smart. We're a nation that's taken on seemingly insurmountable crises in the past. We can take on this one -- if we embrace what's hard, not just seek what's simple. (/END.)
