Today, we’ve apparently made the tough decision that redrawing our roadmap slightly is necessary, weighting local economic health over public health. Two of our key metrics are “Less Than Satisfactory.”
I’m frustrated by this decision because it suggests that the work of slowing the spread proved too difficult for us. I.e., that we chose metrics that were aspirational and proved too difficult for us to achieve, even with strict public health orders.
As best I can tell, we’re preparing as a city to accept more public health risk despite broad public acceptance of #StayHome measures for the possibility of marginal economic activity, all despite an inability to hit our earliest metrics.
Basically, we discovered about ourselves that we couldn’t achieve a downward trend of community spread in a 14-day rolling average.
I’m not convinced starting phase one Monday is the best decision for Nashville, as it suggests a very low possibility of retreating to earlier phases in the presence of tough data.
#COVID19 is a very difficult math problem, involving exponential growth, hospitalization rates, viral reproductive rates, ICU and testing capacities, contact tracing, unemployment, and ending with too many deaths no matter how we adjust the variables.
So far, we’re lucky. We’ve limited the cumulative number of confirmed cases to 3,432. If we reach 343,200 (~4 months at current doubling rates), we should expect more than 3,000 Nashvillians to have died from #COVID19.
I’ve heard from constituents who want to return to normal life. Confronting data is hard. I’ve confronted friends—real Nashvillians—who’ve had #COVID19 and at least a few of whom have wound up in the ICU on oxygen. Fortunately, they made it home.
I’m also particularly concerned about the many small businesses in District 19, including the high-profile businesses on Lower Broadway. I’ve spoken to many business owners directly and have gotten great recommendations.
Like them, I want to reopen. But I’m still optimistic that seriousness about our response and working hard till we get the trends we’re crossing our fingers for would be measured in weeks or even days.
Together, we have to make the extremely difficult choices about how many deaths we can prevent (or tolerate) without permanently damaging (or even causing long-term damage) to our local economy.
I think we can prevent more deaths together. What we’re doing is very hard. We can’t stay closed forever. But patience and resolve and a willingness to protect each other are a part of the #NashvilleStrong we need as part of our response to #COVID19.
And when the data favor us, our reopening effort should have as much transparency as possible around our test/trace/isolate approach, including a dashboard that reflects our actual public health data and greater clarity about when that data is updated.
There’s no single correct equation for how many deaths we will (or should) tolerate in exchange for how much combined quality of life and economic activity we desire.
For my part, I’ll continue to try to protect others as I #StayHome as much as possible and participate in #Masks4All. I hope you will, too, as best as you’re able. Even when we're "open." Let's protect each other.
