Welcome to #AFGPanel and happy Friday--I hope you're all doing well and staying healthy! 1/n
Since our last panel, we’ve seen slow progressions on prisoner exchanges between #Afghanistan’s govt & the #Taliban. But violence in the country continues to increase, along w/#COVID cases and food prices. 2/n
And while it appears Afghan leaders @ashrafghani & @DrabdullahCE may be on the verge of a power-sharing arrangement, the deal may include elements that #Afghanistan’s sponsors would find unsavory. #AFGPanel 3/n
.@US4AfghanPeace is back in the region & confirmed a meeting yesterday w/the #Taliban in #Qatar to discuss prisoners, a humanitarian ceasefire, & moving more quickly to intra-Afghan negotiations, among other topics. #AFGPanel 4/n
And just this morning, news broke that the #Taliban have installed Mullah Mohammad Yaqoob—Mullah Omar’s son and current deputy to the group’s leader, Mullah Haibatullah Akhunzada—to be the head of its military commission. #AFGPanel 5/n
Today, I have the honor of hosting a discussion on these issues & more w/some great panelists. We’ll discuss governance in #Afghanistan, the situation in Helmand & the future of #alQaeda in S. Asia, along w/answering your Qs. #AFGPanel 6/n
Our panelists, in order of tweeting appearance, are: @OmarSadr, assistant professor of political science @auafAfghanistan and author of the excellent book “Negotiating Cultural Diversity in Afghanistan.” #AFGPanel 7/n
.@andrewquilty, a photojournalist who has done extensive work on #Afghanistan, including a wonderful recent piece for @AANafgh on the situation in Helmand province. #AFGPanel 8/n
Before I turn it over to the panelists, here’s how we’ll be doing the discussion: each panelist will begin with an opening tweet thread—I’ll link to those in this thread. After their opening remarks, I’ll moderate a Q&A. #AFGPanel 10/n
PLEASE DM ME YOUR QUESTIONS so I can pose them to the panel in an ordered way. If you reply directly in this or the panelists’ threads, we may not respond. Also, please be civil & respectful in your Qs/comments. #AFGPanel 11/n
With that, I’ll ask @OmarSadr to kick off the discussion with his opening thread! #AFGPanel 12/n
I’d now like to open the Q&A portion of our discussion. We have a lot of great Qs that have come via DM over the past few days! I’ll post the Qs & link to the As in this thread. #AFGPanel 19/n
1st Q is for @OmarSadr: What does a workable power-sharing agreement look like between @ashrafghani & @DrabdullahCE? Are we headed back to the NUG or something very similar to it even after all of this drama? #AFGPanel 20/n
3rd Q is for @asfandyarmir: What do you make of the #Taliban move of Mullah Yaqoob to be the head of the military commission? Is that a good thing or not for the #Afghanistan peace process? #AFGPanel 22/n
4th Q is for @asfandyarmir: Did the reported killing of Asim Umar (head of #alQaeda in South Asia) have any tangible effect on either AQIS or the #Taliban? If so, what? #AFGPanel 23/n
5th Q is for @andrewquilty: What was your sense of the US military’s morale in Helmand? How do the Marines there see the legacy of their involvement in southern #Afghanistan? #AFGPanel 24/n
6th Q is for @asfandyarmir: Recent AQIS materials have suggested that, post-US-#Taliban deal, it will shift focus to India/Kashmir. Is this PR to "aid" the TB's cause? Is it over concerns AQIS might be put in the crosshairs & they r preemptively getting out of AFG? #AFGPanel 25/n
8th Q is for @asfandyarmir: Why isn't #China more concerned with #Taliban's increasing role in Afghan politics? TB domination of #Afghanistan could spell trouble for CHN on its western frontier. Could this consideration be part of US thinking for the region? #AFGPanel 27/n
9th Q is for @OmarSadr: What reach does the Independent Directorate of Local Governance (IDLG) or Da Afghanistan Breshna Sherkat (DABS) have in rural areas like Helmand's districts? How is their presence (or lack of) changing the influence of the #Taliban? #AFGPanel 28/n
10th Q is for @andrewquilty: A recent report on drugs by @mansfieldintinc seemed to suggest that the #COVID situation hasn’t impacted poppy production or drug smuggling in #Afghanistan at all. What is your sense of the drug situation in Helmand today? #AFGPanel 29/n
11th Q is for @andrewquilty: Your @AANafgh piece showed that making the #Taliban bleed brought them to the table. Can a "dignified" peace still be proposed, even after having increased the use of force? #AFGPanel 30/n
I can’t believe how fast that time went! I really appreciate your attention & the time of our amazing panelists. & I esp appreciate @OmarSadr & @andrewquilty's efforts to work through the power outage in Kabul. Please join me in thanking them all 4 their insights! #AFGPanel 31/n
And my sincere apologies if we didn’t get to your Q—there was a long queue, which again reflects the excellence of our panel’s works and experience. #AFGPanel 32/n
With that, I’ll close the panel. Please take care of yourselves/others & stay healthy! #AFGPanel 33/33
Today, @USGAO released a report that describes the efforts of @StateDept, @DHSgov & @DeptofDefense to counter foreign disinformation. 1/n
@USGAO @StateDept @DHSgov @DeptofDefense GAO cited the following as examples:
- @StateDept's Global Engagement Center helps federal agencies, embassies & int'l partners develop analytic skills, policy responses & technical capacity to counter foreign disinformation overseas. 2/n
@USGAO @StateDept @DHSgov @DeptofDefense - @DHSgov's Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency educates the public on the risks of disinformation and partners with state and local election officials to disseminate educational materials to help them identify disinformation. 3/n
Fascinating account here of how #alQaeda's Ayman al-Zawahiri reportedly ended up in a Siraj Haqqani safehouse in downtown Kabul (& the #Taliban's request for AQ to not acknowledge the event). Will put some key points in this thread. 1/n
According to the article, a young #Taliban intel (GDI) officer brought Zawahiri to Kabul in 2022 b/c the latter was suffering from "heart, kidney and skin problems" & needed treatment in the capital. They traveled over the course of 3 weeks from Helmand province. 2/n
Al-Zawahiri was initially posted in a #Taliban intel (GDI) safehouse, but after a drone was sighted flying overhead, he was moved to a second safehouse (near the Sai Rahi Aludin roundabout) in the capital. 3/n
As with its last report, this latest report on the #Taliban’s relationship with #alQaeda in #Afghanistan is 180 degrees out from the current US assessment. 1/n cbsnews.com/news/afghanist…
“According to the report presented to the UNSC [#alQaeda] has established ‘up to 8 new training camps in #Afghanistan, including four in Ghazni, Laghman, Parwan & Uruzgan Provinces, w\a new base to stockpile weaponry in the Panjshir Valley….’ 2/n
“…The terrorist organization also operates 5 madrasas - religious schools where it trains and indoctrinates children to become fighters - in the east & northeast of #Afghanistan, the reports said…” 3/n
I was recently passed a pre-publication copy of Feridun Sinirlioğlu's independent assessment of the situation in #Afghanistan, conducted for the @UN
I'll put some thoughts about it in this THREAD. 1/n
@UN (Since the report isn't out yet, I can't link to it, but you can find various news articles about it via Google, such as this one by @VOANews: ) 2/nvoanews.com/a/un-mandated-…
@UN @VOANews Overall, the assessment is clearly written & admirably forthright, especially given that its audiences are wide-ranging, from the #Taliban to those who hate the Taliban.
Its primary conclusion: "the status quo of int'l engagement is not working." 3/n
Today, the #Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs published an evaluation report of its contribution to the Resolute Support mission in #Afghanistan that *pulls no punches.*
I'll string together its primary findings in this THREAD. 1/n
Before the findings, a quick comment: the Dutch MFA produced this report b/c "Dutch contributions to missions under Article 100 of the Dutch Constitution are subject to an obligation to evaluate the deployment after it's been completed"
Today, the @JoeBiden admin released its National Security Strategy. I’ll summarize its major points & put some thoughts on #terrorism & #Afghanistan specifically in this THREAD. 1/n
@JoeBiden The strategy exists in 5 parts: (1) overview of the problem; (2) sources of US strength (solutions); (3) global priorities; (4) strategy by region; (5) conclusion.
Oddly, part 1 starts on page 6. Nitpicky, I know, but still weird--who counts the cover as page 1? 3/n