Thread by @JJSchroden

Welcome to #AFGPanel and happy Friday--I hope you're all doing well and staying healthy! 1/n

Since our last panel, we’ve seen slow progressions on prisoner exchanges between #Afghanistan’s govt & the #Taliban. But violence in the country continues to increase, along w/#COVID cases and food prices. 2/n

unama.unmissions.org/more-500-civil…

And while it appears Afghan leaders @ashrafghani & @DrabdullahCE may be on the verge of a power-sharing arrangement, the deal may include elements that #Afghanistan’s sponsors would find unsavory. #AFGPanel 3/n

tolonews.com/afghanistan/do…

.@US4AfghanPeace is back in the region & confirmed a meeting yesterday w/the #Taliban in #Qatar to discuss prisoners, a humanitarian ceasefire, & moving more quickly to intra-Afghan negotiations, among other topics. #AFGPanel 4/n

https://twitter.com/US4AfghanPeace/status/1258457581279903745?s=20

And just this morning, news broke that the #Taliban have installed Mullah Mohammad Yaqoob—Mullah Omar’s son and current deputy to the group’s leader, Mullah Haibatullah Akhunzada—to be the head of its military commission. #AFGPanel 5/n

telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/0…

Today, I have the honor of hosting a discussion on these issues & more w/some great panelists. We’ll discuss governance in #Afghanistan, the situation in Helmand & the future of #alQaeda in S. Asia, along w/answering your Qs. #AFGPanel 6/n

Our panelists, in order of tweeting appearance, are: @OmarSadr, assistant professor of political science @auafAfghanistan and author of the excellent book “Negotiating Cultural Diversity in Afghanistan.” #AFGPanel 7/n

routledge.com/Negotiating-Cu…

.@andrewquilty, a photojournalist who has done extensive work on #Afghanistan, including a wonderful recent piece for @AANafgh on the situation in Helmand province. #AFGPanel 8/n

afghanistan-analysts.org/en/reports/war…

.@asfandyarmir, postdoctoral fellow @StanfordCISAC and one of the United States’ finest scholars on #alQaeda in South Asia. #AFGPanel 9/n

https://twitter.com/csa_stanford/status/1257457895928709121?s=20

Before I turn it over to the panelists, here’s how we’ll be doing the discussion: each panelist will begin with an opening tweet thread—I’ll link to those in this thread. After their opening remarks, I’ll moderate a Q&A. #AFGPanel 10/n

PLEASE DM ME YOUR QUESTIONS so I can pose them to the panel in an ordered way. If you reply directly in this or the panelists’ threads, we may not respond. Also, please be civil & respectful in your Qs/comments. #AFGPanel 11/n

With that, I’ll ask @OmarSadr to kick off the discussion with his opening thread! #AFGPanel 12/n

Here are @OmarSadr’s opening remarks. #AFGPanel 13/n

https://twitter.com/OmarSadr/status/1258747564159090688

Many thanks for those thoughts @OmarSadr! I’d like to next ask @andrewquilty to provide his opening thread. #AFGPanel 14/n

Here are @andrewquilty’s opening remarks. #AFGPanel 15/n

https://twitter.com/andrewquilty/status/1258749414706995200

Many thanks to @andrewquilty for those insights! I’d like to next ask @asfandyarmir to provide his opening thread. #AFGPanel 16/n

Here are @asfandyarmir’s opening remarks. #AFGPanel 17/n

https://twitter.com/asfandyarmir/status/1258751279444058113

Many thanks for those thoughtful remarks @asfandyarmir! #AFGPanel 18/n

I’d now like to open the Q&A portion of our discussion. We have a lot of great Qs that have come via DM over the past few days! I’ll post the Qs & link to the As in this thread. #AFGPanel 19/n

1st Q is for @OmarSadr: What does a workable power-sharing agreement look like between @ashrafghani & @DrabdullahCE? Are we headed back to the NUG or something very similar to it even after all of this drama? #AFGPanel 20/n

2nd Q is for @andrewquilty: What do you see as the #Taliban’s plans for southern #Afghanistan? #AFGPanel 21/n

3rd Q is for @asfandyarmir: What do you make of the #Taliban move of Mullah Yaqoob to be the head of the military commission? Is that a good thing or not for the #Afghanistan peace process? #AFGPanel 22/n

4th Q is for @asfandyarmir: Did the reported killing of Asim Umar (head of #alQaeda in South Asia) have any tangible effect on either AQIS or the #Taliban? If so, what? #AFGPanel 23/n

5th Q is for @andrewquilty: What was your sense of the US military’s morale in Helmand? How do the Marines there see the legacy of their involvement in southern #Afghanistan? #AFGPanel 24/n

6th Q is for @asfandyarmir: Recent AQIS materials have suggested that, post-US-#Taliban deal, it will shift focus to India/Kashmir. Is this PR to "aid" the TB's cause? Is it over concerns AQIS might be put in the crosshairs & they r preemptively getting out of AFG? #AFGPanel 25/n

7th Q is for @andrewquilty: What is the most significant action #Afghanistan’s govt or the #Taliban could take, to break the status quo in Helmand? #AFGPanel 26/n

8th Q is for @asfandyarmir: Why isn't #China more concerned with #Taliban's increasing role in Afghan politics? TB domination of #Afghanistan could spell trouble for CHN on its western frontier. Could this consideration be part of US thinking for the region? #AFGPanel 27/n

9th Q is for @OmarSadr: What reach does the Independent Directorate of Local Governance (IDLG) or Da Afghanistan Breshna Sherkat (DABS) have in rural areas like Helmand's districts? How is their presence (or lack of) changing the influence of the #Taliban? #AFGPanel 28/n

10th Q is for @andrewquilty: A recent report on drugs by @mansfieldintinc seemed to suggest that the #COVID situation hasn’t impacted poppy production or drug smuggling in #Afghanistan at all. What is your sense of the drug situation in Helmand today? #AFGPanel 29/n

11th Q is for @andrewquilty: Your @AANafgh piece showed that making the #Taliban bleed brought them to the table. Can a "dignified" peace still be proposed, even after having increased the use of force? #AFGPanel 30/n

I can’t believe how fast that time went! I really appreciate your attention & the time of our amazing panelists. & I esp appreciate @OmarSadr & @andrewquilty's efforts to work through the power outage in Kabul. Please join me in thanking them all 4 their insights! #AFGPanel 31/n

And my sincere apologies if we didn’t get to your Q—there was a long queue, which again reflects the excellence of our panel’s works and experience. #AFGPanel 32/n

With that, I’ll close the panel. Please take care of yourselves/others & stay healthy! #AFGPanel 33/33

Here is @OmarSadr's response:

https://twitter.com/OmarSadr/status/1258767539804483591

Here is @OmarSadr's response:

https://twitter.com/OmarSadr/status/1258761957303336961