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Inspections (proxy to exports) of U.S. #soybeans need to avg around 740,000 t/wk to hit USDA's 19/20 exports of 1.775 bbu. Shipments haven't been that strong since Feb.

That's = to 2018's pace and < 2019's pace, but the problem is low sales. And prob only #China can fix that.
As of April 30 (w/ 4 months left in 19/20), U.S. #soybeans were 8.6 mmt (316 mbu) short on sales for USDA's 1.775 bln bu total.

In 2016, May-Aug old-crop sales were 6.6 mmt, but in the last 3 years they were 3.6-3.8 mmt. So 8.6 mmt is A LOT. And only #China could need that much.
And recall the 2016 sales spike was when #Brazil's crop came up short. It was also right before USA and BR really got ahead of #China's huge demand surge and ramped up production (remember 90 mln U.S. acres in 2017??).

Brazil is having no trouble supplying China this year.
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Karen Braun
@kannbwx
An unprecedented amount of #soybeans are headed from South America to Asia right now. #Brazil shipped an unheard-of 16.3 million tonnes of soybeans in April, including 11.8 million to #China.

Such a big difference in traffic from seven weeks ago.
Another cool view, looking at all vessels carrying ag goods, January 30 vs. May 11. Most of the traffic, esp. on May 11, is #soybeans heading from #Brazil to #China.

Not much #corn shipped lately, but Brazil's #pork exports have easily hit records every month so far in 2020.
Another anecdote about these graphics.... there were SO MANY vessels in view that I had a really hard time getting them to all display at once (and not just say, "200 vessels in this area"), especially with #soybeans. Had to expertly maneuver the view. Has never happened before!
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Karen Braun
@kannbwx
This again.

#China agreeing to make $50 billion in U.S. agricultural purchases in 2020.

The RECORD value for annual U.S. ag product exports to China was in 2012 at just under $26 billion. Compare commodity prices then and now. For reference, 2017 was $19.5 billion.
And if you consider Ag & Related Products (includes fish & forestry products) - max was $29 billion in 2013. So this is the absolute max previous ceiling considering all exports that could be considered ag.

I'm not seeing how $50B is possible in 2020.
I posted this as a reply below, but worth repeating:

The max annual combined export value of U.S. #pork and #soybeans to ALL destinations: $31 billion in 2012.

Add in #corn (TOTAL, to ALL buyers): $41 billion in 2014.
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Karen Braun
@kannbwx
CBOT Dec19 #corn around $3.74/bushel today. Perhaps lower than what some had been thinking back in June but not "low" by any means - it's a 4-year high for the date. December corn hasn't been above $4 after mid-August since 2013.
Looking at 6 years of Nov #soybeans, there are 2 distinct packs, but 2019 is leading the lower one around $8.88/bu today. Last year was the lowest & we are above 2015. But if you look at supplies in late 2015 vs. now/2018, wow. By today's standards, is that beans in the teens? 😉
To elaborate, Sep forecasts, US ending stocks, s/u:
2015: 450 mbu 12% (final 197 5%)
2018: 845 mbu 20% (final ? but ~1 bln bu, 25% ish)
2019: 640 mbu 16%

By the way, back in 2015/16, 450 mbu was less than 7 weeks worth of #China's demand for #soybeans.
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