Thread by @kannbwx

This again.

#China agreeing to make $50 billion in U.S. agricultural purchases in 2020.

The RECORD value for annual U.S. ag product exports to China was in 2012 at just under $26 billion. Compare commodity prices then and now. For reference, 2017 was $19.5 billion.

And if you consider Ag & Related Products (includes fish & forestry products) - max was $29 billion in 2013. So this is the absolute max previous ceiling considering all exports that could be considered ag.

I'm not seeing how $50B is possible in 2020.

I posted this as a reply below, but worth repeating:

The max annual combined export value of U.S. #pork and #soybeans to ALL destinations: $31 billion in 2012.

Add in #corn (TOTAL, to ALL buyers): $41 billion in 2014.

You can even add in #wheat, and you don't get to $50 billion.

Max value of annual #corn + #soybeans + #pork + wheat exports to all buyers = $48.8 billion in 2014.

And because I am a data freak, I pulled the max values by year and added them together. That yields $56.4 billion.

By commodity:
#Corn $13.7B (2011)
#Soybeans $24.8B (2012)
#Wheat $11.3B (2008)
#Pork $6.65B (2014)

Notice none of them were in the same year.

One more, because I ❤️ numbers:

Max US exports, all buyers, in tonnes:

#Corn 69.75 mmt (2018)
#Soybeans 57.8 mmt (2016)
#Wheat 43.9 mmt (1981)
#Pork 2.45 mmt (2017)

Again, all different years, also different from their max value years. Committing to a $ value makes no sense.

Also need to add this:

Total value of U.S. agricultural product exports to all buyers in 2017: $138.2 billion
#China's 2017 share: $19.5 billion (14%)

U.S. max year: $150B in 2014
China 2014: $24.2B (16%)

The non-China buyers are extremely important, we really need them too.