To date, Africa, with a population of >1.2 billion, has only had a small fraction of #COVID19 deaths and < 80,000 confirmed cases. Why?
1. Rest-of-world comparison
@OurWorldInData and @TheEconomist
1. Rest-of-world comparison
@OurWorldInData and @TheEconomist
2. Latest data from @AfricaCDC
Much < 1% of global deaths and <2% of all cases.
This week @GlobalHealthBMJ predicted up to 190,000 deaths, >250,000 cases in the 1st year of the pandemic
Much < 1% of global deaths and <2% of all cases.
This week @GlobalHealthBMJ predicted up to 190,000 deaths, >250,000 cases in the 1st year of the pandemic
3. Many hypotheses have been for these remarkable data including lack of testing and reporting, the lag of cases with later #SARSCoV2 arrival to the continent, the younger population.
4. All of these likely play a role, but another part of the story is offered in this @NewYorker piece from yesterday newyorker.com/news/news-desk… by @itsjina
"Many countries in Africa pursued public-health measures more aggressively than the US and Europe did"
"Many countries in Africa pursued public-health measures more aggressively than the US and Europe did"
5. Some countries in Africa got onto rapid #COVID19 testing far sooner than the US.
For example, Senegal turnaround time was 40 minutes in March and now < 10 minutes
For example, Senegal turnaround time was 40 minutes in March and now < 10 minutes
6. Another factor is much better preparedness, with much experience of #TestTraceIsolate from Ebola, HIV, TB, etc.
thelancet.com/journals/langl… @LancetGH
@m_senghore @BillHanage and colleagues
@CCDD_HSPH @HarvardChanSPH
thelancet.com/journals/langl… @LancetGH
@m_senghore @BillHanage and colleagues
@CCDD_HSPH @HarvardChanSPH
7. South Africa flattened its case curve a month ago and looked like a major success
sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/s…
But now it's reverted to a steeper slope.
Senegal, too, a lesser extent.
More testing may contribute
With #COVID19 deaths counted, no excess in South Africa cf prior years
sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/s…
But now it's reverted to a steeper slope.
Senegal, too, a lesser extent.
More testing may contribute
With #COVID19 deaths counted, no excess in South Africa cf prior years
8. For the countries with confirmed case data @OurWorldInData this is what it looks like today
It's important to keep 👀 on the continent's progress and to learn what we can from some of its successes
It's important to keep 👀 on the continent's progress and to learn what we can from some of its successes
9. In today's @washingtonpost, "Superpowers may need to study smaller nations", w/ updated Ghana data and context (and mention of South Africa, Senegal), by @mradamtaylor and @MiriamABerger washingtonpost.com/world/2020/05/…
10. For those who don't believe some African countries vastly outperformed the United States, you can read 3 sentences from the @NewYorker piece by @itsjina (#4 in thread)
