England experiencing much higher Case Fatality Rates for the 15-64 age group than the rest of the UK and the rest of Western Europe.
Could this point to another Spike Mutation?
Could this point to another Spike Mutation?
(3) Main points form ONS Report 
(4) A fairly large branch of the COVID19 Phylogeny Tree has first appeared in England, Wales and Scotland.
(5) The branch from England has continued to diverge.
(7) Summary: England, Wales and Scotland have been experiencing higher #COVID19 Case Fatality Rates for ages from 20-64 than the rest of the UK and the rest of Western Europe.
ONS has shown that the High Exposure levels seem to be related to occupation, but why higher CFR?
ONS has shown that the High Exposure levels seem to be related to occupation, but why higher CFR?
(8) PS: After reading the report closer, it appears the problem is only occurring in England, and not Wales and Scotland.
(9) @nextstrain Mutation Tree comparing England (left) to Wales (top right) and Scotland (bottom right).
Two genotypes unique to England.
Two genotypes unique to England.
(10) ORF3a Q57H Most Likely genotype, but differences may be due to other factors, of course.
(11) ORF3a Q57H very scarce in Wales and Scotland.
(12) ORF3a Q57H originated in and became fairly prevalent in England.
(13) ORF3a Q57H codes a Membrane Protein contained in the SARS-CoV-2 Envelope
Note, this mutant strain is a descendent of the D614G Spike mutation.
Note, this mutant strain is a descendent of the D614G Spike mutation.
(14) Credits and References
@TheEconomist
@jburnmurdoch
@nextstrain
@ONS
voxeu.org
voxeu.org/article/excess…
@TheEconomist
@jburnmurdoch
@nextstrain
@ONS
voxeu.org
voxeu.org/article/excess…
