Thread by @samagreene

As #Putin launched the public campaign for his constitutional reform, he took the opportunity to tell #Russia a bit about the United States, and about democracy in general.

"What is democracy?" Putin asked. "It's the power of the people, that's right."

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"But if the people elect their higher authorities, then those higher authorities have the right to organize the work of the organs of executive power in such a way as to guarantee the interests of the overwhelming majority of the population of the country," Putin continued.

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"And what's happening there [in America]?" Putin went on. "The president says, 'We need to do X', and the governors say 'Go to hell.'"

ria.ru/20200614/15729…

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With democratic federalism out of the way, Putin turned his attention to #BlackLivesMatter:

"Back in the Soviet Union, and in contemporary Russia, we have always had a lot of sympathy for the struggle by African Americans for their natural rights," Putin said. "Always."

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"It was Martin Luther King, and you remember Angela Davis, with portraits everywhere in the Soviet Union," Putin continued. "It was always that way."

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"But you know, even against the backdrop of these crimes," Putin continued, referring to the killings of African Americans by police, "when it [the civil rights movement] begins to include this element of radical nationalism, of extremism, well, nothing good can come of it."

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The video for the BLM conversation is on my Facebook page: facebook.com/sam.greene.940…

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To be clear -- and to allay any fears of meddling -- Putin did not aim these comments at an American audience. These were squarely targeted at Russians themselves, to frame the news out of the US and to sharpen a sense of contrast between Russia and America.

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Interestingly, he did not take advantage of the opportunity that the American crisis might have presented. He did criticize American authorities, he did not remind people that America has a deep problem with systemic racism, discrimination and violence.

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Rather than take the opportunity to make Russians feel good about themselves and their state by lecturing America about human rights, he saved his criticism for the American street -- for the people fighting for those human rights.

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Putin's reserved rhetoric on BLM undescores a point I made earlier to @mjluxmoore: The Kremlin is deeply and fundamentally ambivalent about this American crisis.

rferl.org/a/in-coverage-…

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On the one hand, they are grateful for the ammunition with which to bombard a rival. On the other, they clearly do not want to legitimize the street.

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Putin's discussion of federalism -- his criticism of American governors for not falling in line with the president -- signals a similar ambivalence.

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Again, a Kremlin that rarely shies from schadenfreude has chosen not to point out that Trump has failed miserably on Covid19, but rather to criticize the very institution that has allowed at least some states to grapple with the pandemic: federalism.

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It is possible, I suppose, that somewhere in the Presidential Administration they do want Trump to beat Biden in November, that they see both BLM and Covid19 as issues where Trump is vulnerable, and thus they have decided to take Trump's side.

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But the impact of Russian television on American politics is limited in the best of times. Now, when Americans are (very rightly) focused on messages much closer to home, that influence is negligible.

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More to the point, though, Putin has a bigger problem than how Americans will vote in November: how Russians will vote later this month.

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While most Russians continue broadly to support Putin, enthusiasm for the president has waned in recent months, and with it enthusiasm for the idea that he might remain in power until 2036.

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Can Putin win the constitutional vote? Absolutely. But his advisers have concluded that he needs to win it resoundingly -- in terms of both the tally and the turnout -- and that will be harder.

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As a result, domestic messaging trumps foreign messaging (with apologies for the pun). This is generally true, but it is certainly true now. And that messaging - including the framing of America, which often features prominently on Russian TV - plays to Putin's strengths.

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Specifically, the Kremlin is using the events in America (both BLM and Covid19) to remind Russians of the two things most clearly associated with Putin: the importance of political stability, and the importance of a 'vertical of power'.

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In previous years, propagandists used events in Ukraine, Georgia, Serbia and elsewhere to spook Russians who might be thinking about change. Sometimes it was France. Now it's America's turn.

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While hackneyed, polls and interviews suggest this stuff worked then, and it is likely to work now. There are a lot of variables, though, including growing fatigue with a politics that can't deliver economically.

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If you're interested, join Greg Yudin online with @KingsRussia and yours truly tomorrow evening!

eventbrite.co.uk/e/putins-coron…

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*he did _not_ criticize...