Thread by @epigiri

Despite surge in cases & increased testing, trajectory of new deaths attributed to Covid-19 for India is lower compared to in #US, #UK, & #Brazil. 7-day rolling average of new deaths (per million), by number of days since 0.1 average deaths (per million) first recorded.
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At the same time, the absolute number of cases per million is increasing at a lower trajectory in India. Testing has doubled in last month. Via 7-day rolling average of new cases (per million), by number of days since 0.1 average cases/million first recorded. Via @FT
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Inference:- Good news
1. Lockdown postponed the surge in cases

2. Lower rate of deaths can be ascribed to enhanced treatment capabilities, younger age demographics & protection due to cross infection.

3. Increasing the testing and treatment capacity is working well
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Inference: Caution

1. India is in ascending stage, no signs of plateau yet. Most states are yet to see peak surge in cases. Can’t lower the guard

2. #death audits should guide the next set of interventions in reducing the mortality.

3. Real #publichealth work starts now
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Notes of Hope

1. States that aren’t testing well will catch up in future.

2. Instead of repeating lockdowns again, states will follow “3Cs” approach as followed by Japan.

3. Preventing Covid19 & other deaths is prioritized by strong society-public-private partnership.

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