Thread by @chrisprener

Short #Missouri #COVID19 evening update 🧵 for Tuesday, 6/30. I’ve pushed updates to all metrics to the website - slu-opengis.github.io/covid_daily_vi….

The statewide 7-day average jumped significantly to a new peak, with #KansasCity hitting a new peak, #StLouis at its highest point… 1/15

… since early May, and the outstate trend up as well, though it a bit short of its peak three days ago.

Every county in SW MO that I have been focusing on added cases yesterday. 2/15

In SE MO, Butler County added 24 new cases yesterday - easily the largest single day bump there - and is averaging over 5 new cases per day right now. Perry and Cape Girardeau have both continued to add new cases, too. 3/15

At the metro level, Joplin now has a higher per capita rate than #KansasCity does, and is on pace to surpass St. Jo’s total number of cases soon. Nearly every metro is seeing upward movement in the 7-day average of new cases right now. 4/15

Also, for the first time in nearly three months, #KansasCity is averaging more deaths (though just slightly) than #StLouis is. 5/15

In #KansasCity, we’re now seeing upward movement in every county that has had at least >5 cases on average. #KCMO, Johnson, Wyandotte, and Clay are adding new cases faster than they have at any point in the outbreak there. 6/15

The jump in average deaths at the #KansasCity metro level is being driven by new fatalities in both Wyandotte and Clay counties. 7/15

In the #StLouis metro, we’re seeing the 7-day averages climb significantly in a number of counties, including STL County, St. Charles, and St. Clair. Reminder - I won’t have an update for the city’s average until 2 July. 8/15

The #StLouis metro hospitalization data are largely the same - new admissions are up, but the remaining metrics have plateaued. 9/15

The same is true on the statewide testing front, where our rates of new persons tested remain up over where they were for much of June, but the percent of positive individuals remains higher than it was for much of the month. 10/15

An addition to my health disparities plots are case and mortality rates for Latinos at the state level. There is a significant disparity in cases, but mortality rates for Latinos are quite low. I suspect this has to do with relatively healthy folks… 11/15

… who are working in high risk settings (i.e. meatpacking plants, other agricultural facilities, and health care facilities) and are getting sick there. They’re at a greater risk for illness, but perhaps not so for dying from COVID. 12/15

At the #StLouis City and County level, we have data only for cases. In the City, the rate for Latinos is higher than African Americans, but the opposite is true in the County. 13/15

My standard caveats about uncertainty - infections (1) are historical data that reflect infections 2-3 weeks ago, (2) are biased by testing patterns, (3) may include probable but unconfirmed cases in some counties, and (4) rates are not individual probabilities of illness. 14/15

Additional maps and plots are on my tracking site - slu-opengis.github.io/covid_daily_vi….

My #rstats code and and data are all available on @GitHub - github.com/slu-openGIS/co…. They're licensed for re-use with attribution, and feedback and improvements are always welcome. 15/15