Thread by @ydnadydnad

#coronavirus: As India eases restrictions on activities this is the time to reiterate that WEARING MASKS NOW IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN EVER. More important than when #lockdown was first imposed on 25 March. Because number of active infected persons (dashed line below) is highest. 1/

As long as active infected persons persist in population - and herd immunity or vaccine induced immunity has not been achieved - chances of spreading pandemic is proportional to number of active infected persons, if containment is inadequate. WEARING MASKS PREVENTS SPREAD. 2/

Number of daily new infections is still rising. We are tracking #CoronavirusIndia at @cessi_iiserkol. When observed numbers (blue bars below) fall below our model assessment (red curve) we would know the pandemic is subsiding in #India (but resurgence is possible). 3/

Opening up activities is inevitable to help sustain the economy and the society. However strategic containment measures still important. Wearing masks is the BEST strategic containment measure. In this YOU and ME, ordinary people have to play a responsible role. 4/

RESOURCES on making and wearing masks (in various #IndianLanguages) is available (along with other relevant information) through the Office of the @PrinSciAdvGoI. See "Face covers for curbing the spread of SARS-CoV-2." 5/
psa.gov.in/information-re…

WEARING MASKS NOW IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN EVER.

This simple, relatively inexpensive local containment measure - that we can together participate in - would allow us to ease more global-scale restrictions for the sake of the society. 6/

Help spread the word to local communities, local markets and municipalities. 7/ @PrinSciAdvGoI @himdaughter @WormlockHolmes @rsidd120 @thattai @tifrarnab @somakrc @TarunSouradeep @ArindamPhysics @ViditaVaidya @vishuguttal @vinita_gowda @Abhadra7 @TVVen @IndSciCOVID @IndSciComm

@cessi_iiserkol @iiserkol COVID Dashboard is available here. Main page has assessment of all India scenarios, some region specific assessments are also available. IMPORTANT: These are not precise predictions, these are model based assessments.
8/ cessi.in/coronavirus/

Doubling time, Growth rate, (effective) Reproduction number estimates also available in region specific pages in our covid dashbaord. When observed numbers dip below a model assessment curve this implies ground reality is better than that of specific model based assessments. 9/

Disclaimers: Our primary expertise is Space Science simulations and big data analysis. Our in-house analytic expertise was utilised for modeling and data analytics of the #CoronavirusPandemic. Faculty, #PhD and #undergrad students contributed to this #scicomm effort.10/

@cessi_iiserkol is funded by @iiserkol and @EduMinOfIndia under the Frontier Areas of Science and Technology Scheme @mhrd_innovation. More about our primary scientific pursuits fan be found at 11/n
cessi.in

Remember:

WEARING MASKS NOW IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN EVER!

n/n

The increased risks associated with not wearing a face covering. n+1

@epigiri @MenonBioPhysics @AnantBhan @anilgb @anil_kakodkar @sandygrains @ChagunBasha @abandopa @hchaturv @fiddlingstars @gcanupama