1. THE FROG
Back in February, I said I expected we’d see reinfection and long term complications from #COVID19
‘Mildly hysterical’ was a criticism of my remarks at the time. The UK government and WHO were saying most people would clear infection in 14 days.
Back in February, I said I expected we’d see reinfection and long term complications from #COVID19
‘Mildly hysterical’ was a criticism of my remarks at the time. The UK government and WHO were saying most people would clear infection in 14 days.
2. Now we know about Long Covid. What started as something that affects 1 in 20, now seems to affect more. Possibly 50% of those infected by #Covid19. Privately epidemiologists have expressed concern the percentage could be higher.
3. @Dr2NisreenAlwan is absolutely right. We can’t measure what we don’t count. We need to count #LongCovid in order to truly understand the risks of #COVID19
4. I’ve written about some of the other unknowns that need to be measured in order to properly assess risk. Without this data, we’re just gambling.
5. The same people who said the virus would clear in 14-days also said reinfection was impossible in such a short space of time. There are now multiple confirmed cases and hundreds of suspected cases around the world. @PRussW1 has been keeping track of some
6. Another unknown is how the virus is going to behave in winter. It seems to have attenuated over summer. Will its characteristics change in the cold weather?
7. Why the frog? Place a frog in boiling water and it will jump out. Put it in cold water and bring it slowly to the boil and it won’t.
Apparently that’s not true (someone supposedly tested it), but the analogy is useful for this pandemic.
Apparently that’s not true (someone supposedly tested it), but the analogy is useful for this pandemic.
8. We’ve slowly come to accept things that would have horrified us in January. Imagine if the WHO or government had said this is a potentially lethal virus that leads to long-term incapacity in 10% to 50% of people infected, protective immunity might be gone in a few months...
9. ...there will be a background level of hundreds or thousands of deaths per week, and instead of a vaccine in autumn, we might not get one until 2021 or 2022 if at all.
How hard would we have pushed for a #ZeroCovid policy? Would we all have become mildly hysterical?
How hard would we have pushed for a #ZeroCovid policy? Would we all have become mildly hysterical?
10. But the goalposts have shifted over time so we have gradually come to accept this new reality. Not only that, we’ve come to accept there’s a civic duty to ‘eat out to help out’, to send children back to school more or less as normal.
11. The weight of scientific opinion is against the way the UK government has reopened schools. SAGE proposed a rota system. It was ignored. DELVE, NERVTAG and the WHO recommend masks for all students at all times (just like in Spain and France). Ignored.
12. When, in a few weeks, the UK has extensive community transmission, the government will try to play the ‘how could we have known’ card. They do know. They’ve been told by all their scientific advisers.
13. So every death or long-term complication that could have been prevented by a masks for all policy in schools and a more effective test, trace and isolate system should weigh heavily on ministerial consciences.
14. Many people are struggling with the mental health aspects of this pandemic. Some have retreated into denialism. Rather than believe we’re facing a once in a century challenge, some prefer to believe in outlandish conspiracies.
15. That Bill Gates is using 5G to fake the symptoms of a virus so he can implant microchips in us all. That governments have planned the pandemic for years to rob us of liberty. Anything to avoid confronting the difficult reality of a pandemic.
16. Don’t assume such denialism is confined to a weird fringe. A serving MP sent me a conspiracy video to ‘open my eyes’ to the reality of what’s happening. I wrote back to politely inform him YouTube had removed the video for breaching its fake news guidelines.
17. We’re in this for the foreseeable future. We can’t shut ourselves away, but equally we can’t pretend this isn’t happening. Until we know more about this disease and can properly quantify risk, our default should be to try to slow transmission.
18. If there are relatively simple protective measures, like masks in schools, more effective testing etc., we should seize them with both hands.
