😷1
#Covid19. Time to get serious. We've repeated the same mistakes. And have no more cash.

"WHERE ON EARTH DO WE GO FROM HERE" thread

Credentials and Sources at the end

Why should you care?
Our infection rate has passed our previous peak

You know how this graph works right? Image
😷2. This will cover.

A) An honest assessment of what we're facing and why

B) what we should do, as balanced as I can be protecting life first and then economy.

C) what's dangerous nonsense, conspiracy or proper psychopathy.
😷A3
What we are experiencing is an uncontrolled exponential viral growth of the same nature as the one we faced in March.

There are no material differences to March and there are no citizens who are particularly to blame for creating this growth surge.
😷A4. The growth has been widely trailed, modelled and predicted since June, it is not a surprise and it is not a Second Wave.

It is exactly the same virus we faced previously. In fact for Mr #Covid19 it is, essentially, still late March.
A5😷 Attempts to characterise the resurgence of the virus as the fault of any group or behaviour for political gain are in my opinion psychologically bankrupt. Setting groups against each other is the last thing we need. Compliance is poor because we lost cohesion post Cummings
😷A6 The simple fact is we are following the same disease with the same progression. We switched it off with lock down and the moment we ended lockdown unprepared, it picked up exactly where it left off.

Unprepared means lacking the TT&T AND control systems required.
😷A7 Suffice as to say I find it deplorable that political disinformation would be used to misdirect cause and effect in the middle of a Pandemic.

The situation is terrible enough without hiding problems. People will and have died as a result.

That behaviour must end here.
That's A.
We're in trouble.
AND it's infinitely worse if we also have divide and conquer politicss

While I've been writing this a very long debate has broken out on the difficulty of simplifying viral statistics See A1
It gets to here
We're in trouble.

Let's solve trouble⏬
B
🛤️B1
How the hell to rescue politicians from repeating mistakes. That's the most significant problem.

But I'm going to have to come at it backwards because if this becomes partisan it will fail. A second time. And then a third...

So pretend with me they're not there.
🛤️B2

You are the new UK Imperious Ruler.

The people are unruly
Faith in leaders ~ 0
They believe almost nothing you say
Yet you need them to help
Because the virus is growing
And you don't have the tools to stop it
And no more £ to buy time

Congratulations.
Lady/Lord Realist
🛤️B3
This is what you're going to do.
1. Recover faith and confidence in leaders
2. Use the infinite resources we didn't know we had available
3. Keep the economy going and then get it almost stable
4. Take a shot at killing the virus altogether.

Ludicrous eh?
Gotta have a goal
🛤️B4
We have no time. But take the time to learn Imperious Ruler (IR). You need a broad virology education in a week.

Normally we don't specialise politicians.
This isn't normal.

Then cut everything from your Calender.

EVERYTHING. Imagine you're at war.

You are at war.
🛤️B5

You're going to level with the people.

And I mean level.

Everything.
Including the dirty nasty errors.

Then the schools will teach it in real time.

And you'll publically request the media fact check and publish it regularly as a reminder.
🛤️B6
You'll explain how we actively worsend phase 1 by leaving airports unchecked.

You will explain even after this we still ignored warnings causing more deaths and worsening lockdown

You'll explain PPE supply, NHS preparedness and Care homes and how all those deaths happened.
🛤️B7 You'll explain why and how our original world-beating Test Track and Trace system was dismantled deliberately and how that left us defenceless.

You'll explain how time was bought by lockdown to create a new TT&T and why that has failed so horribly.
🛤️B8
You will in the simplest of terms systematically take apart and ruthlessly destroy the most dangerous Chernobyl level bad idea conspiracy theories. (Section C)

You'll do this to show the people how they are not to blame, but they are in deep doo doo if they don't help out.
🛤️B9 You won't threaten, or blame and you definitely won't lie.
You'll look them in the eyes because it's war.

And then you'll explain how we win the war

And not immediately but over time, you'll recover sufficient trust to pull off the plan

Because you'll actually have a plan
🛤️B10
Welcome to the New Deal.

The New Deal talks to adults.

In war we do NOT try to get back to a life that was. That's a child's story.

In war,
first we survive the onslaught,
then we train and arm,
then we fight to win at all cost
IF we win, then we can build a new life
🛤️B11
In war never spin defeat as victory or deny your weaknesses.

Such talk erodes the trust of the troops. You're naive, uninformed, dangerous

In war Gift Hope.
If you fail, then celebrate others' battles against Covid19. Show HOW it's possible to win
Show if THEY can WE can
🛤️B12
Lead.

Why did you study?
Can't fake it in war

1. Generals with no plan? Troops are already dead before the fight

2. Half commit full defeat

3. The most potent part of any weapon is its supply chain.

You can't "enthuse" to victory.

Credibility
Experience
A clear plan
🛤️B13

Your honesty with people has bought an immediate improvement in compliance.

#Covidiot rate is at an all-time low.

But you've also won

1. Credibility
2. Time
3. Understanding
4. Volunteers

Let's use those.
🛤️B14 THE PLAN

UK TOTAL COVID WAR

BEACHEAD Complete Viral Suppression

FINAL VICTORY CONDITION Viral Elimination

PRIMARY WEAPONS Test Track and Trace

QUARANTINE SUPPORT
Hotels and Event Centres

TROOP SUPPLY
(Voluntary)
The Local Service

RULE COMPLIANCE
Obligatory
(Aside)

The words "What the British People will/will not accept"

And any variant of

"We don't do the most important things to save human life and rescue the economy because we 'like freedom' "

are never mentioned again.

Talk about snowflake.

(Continues)
🛤️B15

This is total war, so we do it seriously & undistracted

New Deal 5

1. You've done ✅
Faith, confidence, trust
2. You've done ✅
Identified the right task [no TT&T means no focus for suppression and quarantine]

TO DO

3. Cohesion

4. Real TT&T

5. Real Quarantine
🛤️B16

3. COHESION.

Furlough❌
Until 2020 it was time off from prison or service. It's derived from German for Holiday.

Half the country who want to work you're paying to stay home.
While those who must work get little help or thanks.

50 + 50 = 100% resentment

Are you thick?
The Service

This is war, we're on a war footing, yet the most precious resources we have are laid off or resentful and overworked.

We're Building The Service
Unlike NHS volunteers we'll actually use it
And unlike Marshalls, it won't be Cummings' Brownshirts.

Carrot. Not stick
(Aside)

The Cummings' BrownshiRts was a prod, but it was also serious.

If you want to harp on about what British People will or will not accept then employ tin pot bureaucrats to peep through windows and snitch to the top of the list.

Seriously. Are you thick?

(Continues)

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More from @atatimelikethis

Mar 23, 2023
An excellent summary of the cost of living in Germany vs in the UK.

This has very little to do with the EU. It's about corruption in politics.

One country invests in the long term future of its citizens

The other gives out backhanders, crony contracts and dodgy deals to donors
One thing @skedeschi doesn't cover is a comparison of the two political systems.

Like the UK, Germany is a collection of smaller states working together under a United Federation.

But unlike the UK, each state is fairly represented. In the UK, England gets a 90% block vote.
Lke the UK, Germans value both their local representatives and the ability to choose between various policies offered by political parties.

And both countries have roughly 600 MPs, albeit Germany makes this work with a much larger population

But there the similarities end
Read 50 tweets
Jun 27, 2022
You might conclude there are no data on lab lib overt/covert pacts.

You wonder. Has no one analysed whether to compete?

TLDR you'd be right to ask. And maybe then surprised. The bigger issue is that 75% of #Johnson's seats are due to a huge mess-up on this in 2019
Data follow⬇️
Ok first #TivertonandHoniton #Wakefield

Was it worth lab and lib striking local "non-compete" agreements?

Absolutely.

LSE analysis shows⬇️📈vote share can shift ~5-30% just by not competing. Or this week maybe a darn lot more.

blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpol…
Someone may want to argue lib dems do slightly better.

They do.
But that's because they start far smaller
AND it's easier for marginal voters to settle on centrist.

Also that effect is minor vs the boost labour gets from LD where they need it.

But one more thing...
Read 8 tweets
Jun 27, 2022
Since everyone is talking Criminal Justice today, for obvious reasons, some thoughts below.

Every time Patel plays Gesture Politics, changes sentences, botches laws, adds grounds for appeal, she knows she's making a broken system worse.

Proof of insincerity and/or incompetence?
How does Criminal Justice end up like this?

This man ⬇️ is a victim of another Home Office miscarriage of justice.

His pursuit by Patel is political. And the cost is massive amounts of Court and Barrister time.

Now recall, he is just one of thousands.

I doubt you're a fan of the Government's Rwanda Policy.

But imagine you were. Most likely you wouldn't want it in court, failing to work. You'd want to avoid last minute appeals.

Yet Patel creates exactly those problems. This is how to avoid them ⬇️

Read 6 tweets
May 10, 2022
Whatever faces the UK, it's complex. To prosper we will need these:

Careful, long term thinking
Objectivity in difficult tradeoffs
Honesty, shrewd negotiation
Deep analysis and preparation
Dedicated ruthless planning

Meanwhile it's #Bodger #Johnson's Queens Speech.

Chances? ❌
This dichotomy is just weird:

Take #Brexit.

Imagine, if you can; your passion for extracting the UK from the EU was unpersuaded by any argument to the contrary.

OK.

But did you think doing it was so simple that Slapdash-cover-the-cracks Bodger was the guy to run it?
Out of the blue, we faced a Global #COVID19 Pandemic.

OK,caught a little short with the No 10 leadership. It happens.

But maybe reconsider when you found out he dodged all the scientific briefings at the start to write a book?

You wanted to #Bodger your way through?
Read 8 tweets
Jan 27, 2022
The High Court has found the #HomeOffice guilty of illegal mugging of Asylum Seekers.

It is NOT illegal to flee danger, but the HO wrongly said it was, deciding to steal possessions from victims. That IS illegal.

No one knows where this 2020 policy originated. Some ideas ⬇️ ImageImageImageImage
@pritipatel has constantly and deliberately (unless she's just stupid) lied about the legality of those who flee danger to come to our country.

She also characterised the victims of violence as economic migrants - a number her HO data says is vanishingly small.⬇️ ImageImage
Today is #HolocaustMemorialDay

Lest any of us forget, this was an event, the result of a policy of hate directed toward a marginalised community unable to defend itself by lying positions wishing to rabble rouse and distract a disenchanted set of deceived voters.

Familiar?
Read 4 tweets

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