Thread by @ThyConsigliori

10 October 2020 #MAGAanalysis

Lost Hours In A Chartist's Life

So then! I just spent an hour and a half or a bit more, attempting to chart today's data, that I'll never get back. Wow. The numbers are not speaking today. At least, not to me. You should care about that!

2) Why? Why should you care if the data doesn't speak to me, on a given day like today? False Polling reaches deep into the heartland, my friends. If you're following my work, you know I have a single chart left over at Dornsife that I'm paying attention to.

3) Today's data, place on current charts, was simply too boring to present. It fell within all chart structures, and was a day back up for Biden. So, always living by the everyday-counts rule, I attempted to redraw my charts in Biden's favor, today. And in doing so, chaos ruled.

4) Perhaps tomorrow's data will restore order, and who knows, perhaps I'll be able to draw the lines that show Biden actually winning. Much as I massively support Trump, I am ready to follow the pack and call for Biden, if the data supports it. I certainly can't today.

5) Linger with me on that point. Over at BetweenTheLines.Vote we're struggling against such massive Trump support that we feel it must still reflect our own sampling bias, which we've been fighting from day one.

6) I was so excited when we built a successful algorithm to equalize Democrat, Independent, and Republican votership. The model is simple: 1/3 each. The algorithm was, surprisingly, daunting to create, but we succeeded. And what did we find?

7) Trump support was still absolutely overwhelmingly massive. So, our current hypothesis is that even according for D, I, & R equalization, we still are reaching more Trump supporting I's and D's by way of our remaining sample bias. So, we're back at the drawing board.

8) Our next step is to rewrite our algorithm to equalize Biden and Trump support, having nothing to do with party identification, and assess intensity as the only remaining difference. We have to talk about that now...

9) Let's imagine that the nation is split in perfectly equal halves, 50% Biden support, 50% Trump. The only question remaining will be voter turnout - dismissing for the moment vote fraud. Assuming a fair count, the question would then become, whose support equals more votes?

10) A sidebar fantasy conversation intrudes, now. Votes? As if there were no Electoral College? Alas. How does one create a poll that not only survives the honest science test, but also face the electoral college and not merely the popular vote?

11) I believe I know how to create such a poll. I do. I admit instantly thereafter, my effort at polling has many orders of magnitude between here and there. I propose, however, that that should be the standard. Honest science. The Electoral College. Now that would be a poll!

12) In my so sadly lost hour and a half or so, I realized I was literally expanding the scale of data so deeply within the Insignificant Difference Range that it lost its meaning. That's actually a very important point, believe it or not.

13) The state of current polling, my own absolutely included, is simple: we have no idea. I say again, forget vote fraud for the moment. Looking at any numbers you wish, and analyzing for any fundamentals we can, there is no answer right now.

I will go philosophical next.

14) What do you know? How do you know it? How certain are you? There is a political version of these questions. It is:

What did you know, and when did you know it?

The philosophical term for this is: Political Epistemology.

15) Let's go Old School for a moment. If I say that Physics is the Queen of Science, do you have any idea what I'm talking about? I hope so. But, in case not, that statement expresses the desire of all other sciences to have the credibility and prestige of Physics.

16) In that vein, Epistemology is the Queen of Philosophy. Epistemology is the study of knowledge. What it actually studies is the following simple flow:

From I don't know to I do know.

I don't know => I do know.

17) This is no mere theoretical question. Who won the Presidential Election of the year 2000? Was it Bush or Gore? This question was answered by the SCOTUS. Bush won. How do we know? SCOTUS told us so.

18) If my data quagmire of today's lost hour and a half is right, then it will be SCOTUS who will tell us who won. That is, unless SCOTUS itself can't decide. What then? America is facing the Political Epistemological challenge of its life.

19) I love philosophy. I love epistemology. I'm just that kind of guy. What I detest is uncertainty over the truth. I adore charts because they make me feel like I have a handle on the truth. I detest confessing that I have no data I believe in right now. I hate that.

20) I am ready for a Biden victory. I am ready to face the destruction of America's Constitutional Republic that will ensue. As a scientist, I wish to call for Biden if, in fact, the data were to show that. As a patriot, I am ready to face that outcome.

21) Let's go further. Imagine a Biden Presidency in which the Constitution itself is obliterated. We will have a Civil, an Uncivil War? What would such a war look like, today?

22) We must go the other way, also. What if we're wrong, we the MAGA Movement? Well, then Biden's dreams are right. We're wrong. We must find our patriotic duty to support him, after we lose at the polls, fairly. Or...

23) Or...or we are right, the polls are all wrong, and the majority of America supports Trump? The implications of that possibility are vast. To fully understand the factors in play, I ask, who has read Bastiat, and his book, The Law?

fee.org/media/14951/th…

24) America, we're at an inflexion point. Biden will decimate The Law.

Trump will adhere to it.

He will reinforce it, execute it, as is his obligation and duty.

25) I've already given up on the majority of Dornsife's polls, retaining only one. For now, I'll continue to follow it.

I will rededicate my team's efforts toward a new algorithm, equalizing both Biden and Trump support.

That's my commitment.

Thread ends at #25.