10 October 2020 #MAGAanalysis

Lost Hours In A Chartist's Life

So then! I just spent an hour and a half or a bit more, attempting to chart today's data, that I'll never get back. Wow. The numbers are not speaking today. At least, not to me. You should care about that!
2) Why? Why should you care if the data doesn't speak to me, on a given day like today? False Polling reaches deep into the heartland, my friends. If you're following my work, you know I have a single chart left over at Dornsife that I'm paying attention to.
3) Today's data, place on current charts, was simply too boring to present. It fell within all chart structures, and was a day back up for Biden. So, always living by the everyday-counts rule, I attempted to redraw my charts in Biden's favor, today. And in doing so, chaos ruled.
4) Perhaps tomorrow's data will restore order, and who knows, perhaps I'll be able to draw the lines that show Biden actually winning. Much as I massively support Trump, I am ready to follow the pack and call for Biden, if the data supports it. I certainly can't today.
5) Linger with me on that point. Over at BetweenTheLines.Vote we're struggling against such massive Trump support that we feel it must still reflect our own sampling bias, which we've been fighting from day one.
6) I was so excited when we built a successful algorithm to equalize Democrat, Independent, and Republican votership. The model is simple: 1/3 each. The algorithm was, surprisingly, daunting to create, but we succeeded. And what did we find?
7) Trump support was still absolutely overwhelmingly massive. So, our current hypothesis is that even according for D, I, & R equalization, we still are reaching more Trump supporting I's and D's by way of our remaining sample bias. So, we're back at the drawing board.
8) Our next step is to rewrite our algorithm to equalize Biden and Trump support, having nothing to do with party identification, and assess intensity as the only remaining difference. We have to talk about that now...
9) Let's imagine that the nation is split in perfectly equal halves, 50% Biden support, 50% Trump. The only question remaining will be voter turnout - dismissing for the moment vote fraud. Assuming a fair count, the question would then become, whose support equals more votes?
10) A sidebar fantasy conversation intrudes, now. Votes? As if there were no Electoral College? Alas. How does one create a poll that not only survives the honest science test, but also face the electoral college and not merely the popular vote?
11) I believe I know how to create such a poll. I do. I admit instantly thereafter, my effort at polling has many orders of magnitude between here and there. I propose, however, that that should be the standard. Honest science. The Electoral College. Now that would be a poll!
12) In my so sadly lost hour and a half or so, I realized I was literally expanding the scale of data so deeply within the Insignificant Difference Range that it lost its meaning. That's actually a very important point, believe it or not.
13) The state of current polling, my own absolutely included, is simple: we have no idea. I say again, forget vote fraud for the moment. Looking at any numbers you wish, and analyzing for any fundamentals we can, there is no answer right now.

I will go philosophical next.
14) What do you know? How do you know it? How certain are you? There is a political version of these questions. It is:

What did you know, and when did you know it?

The philosophical term for this is: Political Epistemology.
15) Let's go Old School for a moment. If I say that Physics is the Queen of Science, do you have any idea what I'm talking about? I hope so. But, in case not, that statement expresses the desire of all other sciences to have the credibility and prestige of Physics.
16) In that vein, Epistemology is the Queen of Philosophy. Epistemology is the study of knowledge. What it actually studies is the following simple flow:

From I don't know to I do know.

I don't know => I do know.
17) This is no mere theoretical question. Who won the Presidential Election of the year 2000? Was it Bush or Gore? This question was answered by the SCOTUS. Bush won. How do we know? SCOTUS told us so.
18) If my data quagmire of today's lost hour and a half is right, then it will be SCOTUS who will tell us who won. That is, unless SCOTUS itself can't decide. What then? America is facing the Political Epistemological challenge of its life.
19) I love philosophy. I love epistemology. I'm just that kind of guy. What I detest is uncertainty over the truth. I adore charts because they make me feel like I have a handle on the truth. I detest confessing that I have no data I believe in right now. I hate that.
20) I am ready for a Biden victory. I am ready to face the destruction of America's Constitutional Republic that will ensue. As a scientist, I wish to call for Biden if, in fact, the data were to show that. As a patriot, I am ready to face that outcome.
21) Let's go further. Imagine a Biden Presidency in which the Constitution itself is obliterated. We will have a Civil, an Uncivil War? What would such a war look like, today?
22) We must go the other way, also. What if we're wrong, we the MAGA Movement? Well, then Biden's dreams are right. We're wrong. We must find our patriotic duty to support him, after we lose at the polls, fairly. Or...
23) Or...or we are right, the polls are all wrong, and the majority of America supports Trump? The implications of that possibility are vast. To fully understand the factors in play, I ask, who has read Bastiat, and his book, The Law?

24) America, we're at an inflexion point. Biden will decimate The Law.

Trump will adhere to it.

He will reinforce it, execute it, as is his obligation and duty.
25) I've already given up on the majority of Dornsife's polls, retaining only one. For now, I'll continue to follow it.

I will rededicate my team's efforts toward a new algorithm, equalizing both Biden and Trump support.

That's my commitment.
Thread ends at #25.

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More from @ThyConsigliori

12 Oct
12 October 2020 #BetweenTheLinesDotVote Analysis

Where Are We...Really?

If I'm a Biden advisor, I'm scared out of my head about the numbers we'll look at today. Yes, they say were ahead, but are the numbers true, and are we really ahead? Not too sure, you know? We'll dive in. Image
2) Let's take a closer look, at our now familiar chart explosion, with simple support and resistance lines. Check this out. Here we are, nicely headed back up toward our comfortable resistance line, Trump heading back down. So what could be wrong? Image
3) What's wrong is this. We have NOT killed him, yet. Trump is such a dangerous enemy that, until you knock him out, a pure KO, he's very able to come back and pull victory from the jaws of defeat. He is precisely that dangerous. There's no knock out so far. That's not good.
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11 Oct
11 October 2020 #BetweenTheLinesDotVote Analysis

A Single True Thing We Know

Humility. We must all admit, we don't know where the election stands right now. I do have formations I will share, today. But the very meaning of these formations is...we do not know where we stand. Image
2) We've discussed the Iceberg Theory that NO POLL is adequately tracking Trump support. I don't know if I buy that for a single reason. I want to buy it. I want to believe in a looming massive landslide for Trump, in spite of just about every poll out there.
3) Funny thing, the coming charts, which at first glance call for a looming Biden victory, are not nearly so simple as first glance may indicate. Let's go ahead and look at first glance right now. Image
Read 16 tweets
9 Oct
9 October 2020 #BetweenTheLinesDotVote Analysis

The Power Of A Single Question

We've discussed this before. The chart here is the one and only chart, most closely approximating the 2016 Dornsife method.

It is: "Who do you think people in your state will vote for?"
2) It is good to remember that 2016 Dornsife only asked these 3 questions:

1) Will you vote?
2) Who for?
3) Who will win?

To my eye, #3 was always the most important. It also accords with the Flynn Doctrine: Who the people think will win, will win.
3) Throughout this season so far, it's been my contention that the entire Anti-Trump Establishment (ATE) - hey, not a bad acronym, eh? They want to eat him! - has employed a propaganda-driven False Polling based Psyop to project Biden as winner regardless of fact or truth.
Read 42 tweets
9 Oct
1) If you pop the quote into Google, you'll find all kinds of rejections by the "fact checkers" all saying, basically, they didn't find the quote so he didn't say it. Well, okay, but @RealDrJan1 posted it for a reason, anyway. Hmm.
2) I've been studying Soros since the late 80s. In 86, he published The Alchemy of Finance, in which he introduced his Theory of Reflexivity. In both theory and practice, we're talking pure genius. He was, for many years, my hero.
3) When I discovered his brand new Open Society mission, and its role in the collapse of the USSR, my worship rose higher. Did you know he bought fax machines, and set of fax networks to break the USSR's stranglehold on information? No kidding. It's true.
Read 16 tweets
7 Oct
7 October 2020 #MAGAanalysis

Courage, Commitment, Stern Will, Great Gratitude, Gravitas

This Presidential image, @realDonaldTrump returning to the White House, is from a 17 minute C-Span video.

Here's the link: c-span.org/video/?476647-…
2) Not a video watcher - I prefer articles that I can skim more easily - I watched the entire 17 minutes. History can rarely be brought down to such simple clarity. The last minute was the most telling. POTUS solutes the leaving helicopter, watching it depart.
3) And what a story these 17 minutes tell. A President catched Covid. He stays 3 days in hospital. Symptoms gone or in abatement, he not only leaves, he walks proudly, marching one new step into history, yet again. In the early moments note how he touches the banister.
Read 26 tweets
6 Oct
6 October 2020 #BetweenTheLinesDotVote Analysis

Just When I Thought I Was Out...

Just one damned chart at Dornsife pulls me back in. Wait till you see today's charts! But first, I have a new poll to introduce to you and I'm so excited.

2) To my Democrat friends, I know it may be difficult to trust me when the data I like also shows the projections I desire. We talk about confirmation bias all the time, I know. But we're at a critical juncture in this election, and I have to perpetually seek the strongest data.
3) Please look at this quote from the article above:

"The fieldwork for this survey of a randomly selected national telephone (landline and cell) sample of 1,500 likely voters was conducted by the Democracy Institute’s polling unit from September 30th to October 2nd 2020.
Read 37 tweets

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