Thread by @ThyConsigliori

11 October 2020 #BetweenTheLinesDotVote Analysis

A Single True Thing We Know

Humility. We must all admit, we don't know where the election stands right now. I do have formations I will share, today. But the very meaning of these formations is...we do not know where we stand.

2) We've discussed the Iceberg Theory that NO POLL is adequately tracking Trump support. I don't know if I buy that for a single reason. I want to buy it. I want to believe in a looming massive landslide for Trump, in spite of just about every poll out there.

3) Funny thing, the coming charts, which at first glance call for a looming Biden victory, are not nearly so simple as first glance may indicate. Let's go ahead and look at first glance right now.

4) With humility, we Trump supporters must remember that this is the one and only chart offering Trump even the slightest of chances of reelection from Dornsife. If we take this data as valid, our hopes of reelection are dwindling. And, if that is true, I have a theory as to why.

5) The Biden-Trump debate. I gave it to Trump for the following reason. There is no way to heal the divide within the Democratic Party, between their left and their middle. Trump played on that divide in just about everything he did. I thought he won.

6) But what if my bias was the reason I thought that? I can make the case that he lost. He was deemed rude. Biden was not deemed rude. And, numbers be numbers, the data here indicates that, as everyone else says, Biden won the debate.

7) To my fellow Trump supporters, please do not misread me. The only poll that matters is November 3rd's. If the split amongst the Democrats shows up then, then Trump won the debate. It matters NOT who won, according to polls and pundits. It matters at the vote.

8) But I, for one, appreciate it when at least the data shows up in an intelligible format. And, reading today's data, there is little question that, according to it, Biden won the debate. Note, this data covers 7 days. So, the victory is seen right here. Let's talk about that.

9) Biden nice. Trump mean. If Biden won the debate that's the reason why. Chris Wallace is a Biden operative. So also Bret Baier and Martha McCallum. FOX itself has thrown down for Biden. So also has Drudge. If we Trump supporters, the MAGA Movement are to win, we must face them.

10) I'll soon turn to our other two charts. We must linger, however, on the question of winning. We MAGA types. Our only hope is to turn out in numbers that massively dominate. If we do not, we will lose. That is what every bit of data to date indicates.

11) Let's look at Biden. I've raised his resistance. And, I've drawn a possible victory path. If that path holds, then a Biden Presidency we must prepare for.

12) It is absolutely incumbent upon all us MAGA types, that we face the very real possibility of a Biden victory that this chart indicates. No, there is no certainty of such at this point. Not one iota of certainty. Possibility? Yes. It is very possible.

13) Strangely enough, now let's look at Trump.

14) Imagine that. Even as Biden so utterly dominates the numbers, still, Trump is marching upward. How that's even possible is virtually beyond my reckoning. And remember, this is an absolutely 100% anti-Trump poll.

15) I can't imagine what tomorrow's data may say. I do not predict such things. I merely analyse where the data lands. But, I can tell you this. No one knows where this elections stands. If anyone tells you they do, they're lying.

Thread ends at #15.