Thread by @ThyConsigliori

12 October 2020 #BetweenTheLinesDotVote Analysis

Where Are We...Really?

If I'm a Biden advisor, I'm scared out of my head about the numbers we'll look at today. Yes, they say were ahead, but are the numbers true, and are we really ahead? Not too sure, you know? We'll dive in.

2) Let's take a closer look, at our now familiar chart explosion, with simple support and resistance lines. Check this out. Here we are, nicely headed back up toward our comfortable resistance line, Trump heading back down. So what could be wrong?

3) What's wrong is this. We have NOT killed him, yet. Trump is such a dangerous enemy that, until you knock him out, a pure KO, he's very able to come back and pull victory from the jaws of defeat. He is precisely that dangerous. There's no knock out so far. That's not good.

4) Let's look at these numbers more closely. Here are "our" numbers (remember, I'm role playing a Biden advisor). We're well upon our victory path so that's great, isn't it? Maybe. But why are we slowing down? And what about that looming resistance line?

5) Sometimes the best friend you have is an honest enemy. Reverting back to my true self, here is my analysis of what these numbers show. There are three factors. And a fourth about the numbers themselves:

1) Trump actually won his debate
2) Pence massively won
3) SCOTUS Packing

6) If you listen to the news, carefully, there a theme emerging about the split between the far left and the Democratic middle. This is what Trump laid down during his debate. He poked Biden right in the eye over this irreparable split in the Party.

7) I want to dive deep on this point. No poll, following a debate, actually matters. There is only one poll a debate must affect, and that is the election itself. There was no chance that Trump would win the popularity contest against Wallace and Biden. He had another goal.

8) His goal was? To show the rift, the schism within the Democratic Party. These are my terms to show the rift in stark clarity:

Communism vs Democratic Patriots

This is so great a split that it actually threatens to destroy the Democratic Party.

9) Harris is the farthest left leaning Senator. Her selection as VP is just a nod to that wing. But, Bernie Sanders she is not. Worse, she is snide, snarky, shrill. She is condescending, haughty, and mocking in all her tones. I'm speaking now. Head nod. Condescending smile.

10) She reveals the true intent of Democratic leadership. She is their selection. Biden's dementia will pave the path for her elevation, should they win. How much more obvious need things be? Problem. America sees this, clearly. That really is a problem.

11) Before I turn to SCOTUS, and its packing, let's look at Trump's numbers. They're heading back down, yet still solidly in the middle of his channel. And again, you see, so far, no knock out blow. Even by these numbers, he's still very much in the fight.

12) If I'm a Trump advisor, here's what I'm saying. Beat it Sir. Beat COVID. Be 100% cleared. You're just days away. Then, start beating on the beating COVID drum like there's no tomorrow. It attacked you. You defeated it. You represent America. We are defeating COVID.

13) Biden and Harris are lying. So is Pelosi. This is no surprise, it is rather standard operating procedures. About what? Court packing. They're trying to make the case that filling the Notorious RBG's seat is court packing. It is not. We all know that. Hear the bald lie.

14) Here's something funny. I actually - and 100% wrongly - thought that FDR had succeeded in packing the court. Even he failed. I had no idea of that. What does that tell us? It tells us there is an America that still adheres to our founding. SCOTUS remains, even still.

15) I have studied SCOTUS's history. Not as a serious student, more as a dilettante. And, I have been no great fan. My great friend @JonStancik forced me to read @marklevinshow's fantastic book, Men In Black:

amazon.com/dp/B000X16Q5O/…

16) I say that today, if we would return to a path that adheres to our founding, we must both reelect @realDonaldTrump AND return his Senate to him. At minimum. We should also return his House to him as well.

17) With the confirmation of Amy Coney Barrett, and with a secure hold on at least the Senate, Trump's next four years offer the hope of America to its return to greatness in every way. There you have my hope. And there you have my prediction as well.

18) Sadly, it is NOT a prediction based upon the data at hand. Rather, it is in spite of the data, and that does NOT make me happy. A "call" is something based upon the data. I am NOT able to do that, today. I just don't have the data.

19) So, why don't I have the data? Afterall, I just gave you four charts. These four are simply the best I've got, but are NO WHERE near to providing me with confidence. I know, we've discussed this many times. Still, I put forward that further analysis is merited.

20) At their site, Dornsife offers an assessment of their 2016 work. I quote:

"Our final poll measured Donald Trump with a three point lead. This was widely misunderstood to mean that we were one of the few polls to predict Donald Trump’s win in the electoral college.

21) "In fact, Hillary Clinton was the winner of the national popular vote, by 2 percentage points.

As we had always intended, we revisited our experimental poll to consider what had worked well and what could be improved.

22) "Our examination of sampling and weighting methods revealed that we had an overrepresentation of rural voters in our sample, a possibility that we simply overlooked at the time, as rurality is not a typical weighting variable.

23) "When we adjusted our poll according to census benchmarks for rural/urban population, our final estimate had Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump by a one point margin.

24) Now this is the most stunning part. Shocking...

"We of course would have preferred to have that outcome on November 4, 2016, but we were pleased to find where our error lay and to be able to correct it."

25) Look at that. And note the error. November 4? That's the 2020 date. In 2016, it was November 8. That's called a Freudian Slip. Their only goal, now, is a Biden victory on November 4, 2020. Everything else is poppycock.

26) But look at the totality of their statement. They have disavowed what was their greatest honor. They rightly called for Trump in 2016. Now, they are rejecting that call, as HRC won the popular vote. So, as they'd have obviously preferred her overall victory, they apologize.

27) In the coming week, I hope that my team and I will be able to give you Biden support equalized data from our own poll. I say again, as always, if he's going to win, then I want to predict it too, along with everyone else. But if he's going to lose, I want to call that early.

28) The comfort I have, right now, is that no one knows, and anyone who says they do, is a liar and a fraud. No data has shown up as conclusive. No call is based upon real data, yet.

29) Honest questions. Honest answers. Honest data. We're that poll. We're the poll America needs so that Her voice may be heard as early and often as possible. We state our bias, boldly. But we NEVER represent the data to our own desire.

30) So I ask, won't you please come join us? Please head over to our site, and log your honest answers to our honest questions. Let's get the data right!

BetweenTheLines.Vote

Thread ends at #30.