Thread by @fly4dat

1/ $TSLA sold 11,329 MIC in China🇨🇳 in Sep, bringing quarterly totals to 33,891. This compares to 29,953 in Q2, a growth of 9.6%, while production grew 13.3% and unsold inventory doubled.

The Chinese NEV market grew 67.7% YoY in Sep.

A thread.

$TSLA $TSLAQ

2/ With this, geo breakdown looks as follows. Overall growth is again driven by China, but Tesla could eke out some growth ex-China too.

3/ However, all that ex-China growth came from Model Y. Without Model Y, ex-China Tesla shrunk by 19.9%

In the US, Model 3 sales fell by a whopping 42.7%

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4/ Bulls are advised to stop reading here.

Tesla has stopped production in China in the last 10 days of Sep. That allowed them to only double unsold inventory. No wonder they are planning to export MIC to APAC and Europe on top of huge CN price cuts.

https://twitter.com/TESLAcharts/status/1297870646299566080?s=20

5/ It seems that aging Model 3 sales cannot even be maintained by price cuts, unlike Model S and X, even in China, where the model is fairly new. Lots of not-much-smaller BEV competitors are each taking slices of the BEV pie. In Europe, VW is eating Tesla alive.

6/ With market share having started to freefall in China and Europe, it's only the US left intact for Tesla. We have yet to see how MY sales can keep up. Model 3 shows the lack of disruption: it's a standard model cycle. Normally, a facelift should come. Not an ashtray revamp.

6/ Note that today's Model S price cut of 5% wiped out 25% of gross margins, assuming 20% before the price cut (production costs should be around the same after several years of prod, battery costs haven't fallen too much in 3 months). M3 has lower GM.

https://twitter.com/WPipperger/status/1295815273698795522?s=20

7/ Let's take a moment to laugh at @p_ferragu, @DivesTech, @jimcramer, Adam Jonas and the other enablers who are neglecting publicly available data, touting "unlimited demand", "enormous China growth" and "10 years lead".

https://twitter.com/BradMunchen/status/1314173698639708160?s=20

8/ h/t @DKurac, @TESLAcharts, @DeanSheikh1, @scidood and @WPipperger for the data.

9/ ADDENDUM (please feel free to add such and don't forget to tag the source)

@DivesTech

https://twitter.com/fly4dat/status/1295335328807608321?s=20

10/ I'll call @GLJ_Research' chart the "$TSLA will be more valuable than $AAPL" chart.

$TSLA $TSLAQ