fly4dat Profile picture
13 Oct, 11 tweets, 6 min read
1/ $TSLA sold 11,329 MIC in China🇨🇳 in Sep, bringing quarterly totals to 33,891. This compares to 29,953 in Q2, a growth of 9.6%, while production grew 13.3% and unsold inventory doubled.

The Chinese NEV market grew 67.7% YoY in Sep.

A thread.

$TSLA $TSLAQ
2/ With this, geo breakdown looks as follows. Overall growth is again driven by China, but Tesla could eke out some growth ex-China too.
3/ However, all that ex-China growth came from Model Y. Without Model Y, ex-China Tesla shrunk by 19.9%

In the US, Model 3 sales fell by a whopping 42.7%

$TSLA $TSLAQ
4/ Bulls are advised to stop reading here.

Tesla has stopped production in China in the last 10 days of Sep. That allowed them to only double unsold inventory. No wonder they are planning to export MIC to APAC and Europe on top of huge CN price cuts.

5/ It seems that aging Model 3 sales cannot even be maintained by price cuts, unlike Model S and X, even in China, where the model is fairly new. Lots of not-much-smaller BEV competitors are each taking slices of the BEV pie. In Europe, VW is eating Tesla alive.
6/ With market share having started to freefall in China and Europe, it's only the US left intact for Tesla. We have yet to see how MY sales can keep up. Model 3 shows the lack of disruption: it's a standard model cycle. Normally, a facelift should come. Not an ashtray revamp.
6/ Note that today's Model S price cut of 5% wiped out 25% of gross margins, assuming 20% before the price cut (production costs should be around the same after several years of prod, battery costs haven't fallen too much in 3 months). M3 has lower GM.

7/ Let's take a moment to laugh at @p_ferragu, @DivesTech, @jimcramer, Adam Jonas and the other enablers who are neglecting publicly available data, touting "unlimited demand", "enormous China growth" and "10 years lead".

8/ h/t @DKurac, @TESLAcharts, @DeanSheikh1, @scidood and @WPipperger for the data.
9/ ADDENDUM (please feel free to add such and don't forget to tag the source)

@DivesTech

10/ I'll call @GLJ_Research' chart the "$TSLA will be more valuable than $AAPL" chart.

$TSLA $TSLAQ

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More from @fly4dat

13 Oct
1/ Speaking of credits, do you still have crows around? I've eaten so many.

The whole thing still doesn't make sense.
2/ @jaberwock2 estimated 60k cars to be needed for FCA to offset emissions this year. My guess is much lower (pre-COVID). They were working on the RNO deal at the time they signed the TSLA one, so they mustn't have signed anything definite for 2021 and beyond.
3/ FCA is making the new 500e's for around €20k (ex allocated fixed costs). If they gave a free 500e with every petrol 500 for the first 60k buyers, they'd be almost at half the cost.
Read 4 tweets
13 Oct
1/ VW started to deliver ID.3 in Norway (and most other markets) exactly a month ago. Misses outdoing full year Model 3 deliveries by a full day (less than 100 units). Sad.

2/ #Tesla M3 won't be in the top 5 in Norway *this full year*.

Not leading the Dutch chart.

In fact, besides the UK, Sweden, Switzerland, Austria, Denmark and Iceland (and maybe Luxembourg), Tesla doesn't lead anywhere in Europe. Even this list will shrink in Q4.

ImageImage
3/ In Europe, it's over for Tesla.

Bulls will say it's Giga Berlin. But it was COVID, the NL surge, Raven for the Model S, you name it. There are always excuses. Berlin won't change the trend long term unless Tesla cuts prices heavily.

Read 4 tweets
4 Oct
1/ #Tesla bulls are cheering the 10th Chinese price cut this year, celebrating the "passing on cost savings to customers". Let's assume it's Musk's good heart the reason for the cuts, not #nodemand at current price levels*.

$TSLA $TSLAQ
2/ Price cuts >> total battery costs.

Now imagine for a second how utterly inefficient production must have been if there could be such cost savings.

cleantechnica.com/2020/08/21/elo…
4/ Now imagine if
a) price cuts are bigger than "efficiency gains", eating into the eterna 23% gross margin. If only 3% of the price cut eats into this, that's a 13% GM reduction.
b) relative margins stay at the eternal 23%, what do absolute margins do?
Read 4 tweets
2 Oct
1/ #Tesla reported 124.1k M3Y deliveries in Q3. A year ago it was 79.6k, a growth of 44.5k. Without China, these #'s would be ~86.1 vs 72k, a growth of 14.1k.

But wait, that includes Model Y!

$TSLA $TSLAQ
2/ Y was sold in the US only.

Based on reliable sources, around 60% of US sales was MY. That leaves us with the 2nd worst M3 figure for the US 2018 Q2, besting only pandemic-influenced 20Q2 by a hair.
3/ $TSLA got a pass in Q2 because of COVID shutdowns. If that left a backlog (real, as orders couldn't have been filled, or implied, as many buyers could have delayed purchases), that means that even with MY, Tesla couldn't grow in the US.
Read 7 tweets
30 Sep
1/ #Tesla has a European market share of 16% that's falling. At the same time, Norwegian market share is less than half, 7%.

Image
2/ Norway is the only developed BEV market in the world, with ~50% of new cars sold being BEVs. What could the reason be for such a significant difference? Image
3/ Norway used to be Tesla's #2 (since inception) then #3 (until 2018) worldwide market after the US, thanks to the subsidies (taxes, bus lane use, free parking, other perks).

#Tesla sales fell in NO, ex initial M3 deliveries.

Even 18Q3/4 were better, when no M3 was there. Image
Read 8 tweets
21 Sep
weekly 🇪🇺 UPDATE

♣ID.3 already outselling #Tesla in NO🇳🇴
♦️Still close to 1k public inventory (poss. many more)
♠Very weak NL, NO, okay to good SP, IS, poss. strong DACH
♥VW gives details about its Blitzkrieg vs Tesla

🃏T not cooperating with Norwegian Police

Image
"What competition?" Norway🇳🇴 edition, vol Sep #3.

LUX: strongest SuX this year, still nowhere vs '19 let alone '18 levels. EQC and E-Tron SB take it home.

MID: despite poss. strongest M3 this year, YoY comps are sad and ID.3, Polestar, Hyundai & MG crushing it.

Image
Read 8 tweets

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