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13 Oct, 4 tweets, 1 min read
1/ Speaking of credits, do you still have crows around? I've eaten so many.

The whole thing still doesn't make sense.
2/ @jaberwock2 estimated 60k cars to be needed for FCA to offset emissions this year. My guess is much lower (pre-COVID). They were working on the RNO deal at the time they signed the TSLA one, so they mustn't have signed anything definite for 2021 and beyond.
3/ FCA is making the new 500e's for around €20k (ex allocated fixed costs). If they gave a free 500e with every petrol 500 for the first 60k buyers, they'd be almost at half the cost.
4/ The 500e is a very decent car though. Build a Dacia-like compliance car in Poland, Serbia or Turkey for €12-15k and sell it for €7k net, €11k gross. You come in at a quarter of the losses or lower.

Amazing that there is no police raid at FCA's HQ.

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More from @fly4dat

fly4dat Profile picture
13 Oct
1/ VW started to deliver ID.3 in Norway (and most other markets) exactly a month ago. Misses outdoing full year Model 3 deliveries by a full day (less than 100 units). Sad.

$TSLA $TSLAQ
2/ #Tesla M3 won't be in the top 5 in Norway *this full year*.

Not leading the Dutch chart.

In fact, besides the UK, Sweden, Switzerland, Austria, Denmark and Iceland (and maybe Luxembourg), Tesla doesn't lead anywhere in Europe. Even this list will shrink in Q4.

$TSLA $TSLAQ
3/ In Europe, it's over for Tesla.

Bulls will say it's Giga Berlin. But it was COVID, the NL surge, Raven for the Model S, you name it. There are always excuses. Berlin won't change the trend long term unless Tesla cuts prices heavily.

Read 4 tweets
fly4dat Profile picture
13 Oct
1/ $TSLA sold 11,329 MIC in China🇨🇳 in Sep, bringing quarterly totals to 33,891. This compares to 29,953 in Q2, a growth of 9.6%, while production grew 13.3% and unsold inventory doubled.

The Chinese NEV market grew 67.7% YoY in Sep.

A thread.

$TSLA $TSLAQ
2/ With this, geo breakdown looks as follows. Overall growth is again driven by China, but Tesla could eke out some growth ex-China too.
3/ However, all that ex-China growth came from Model Y. Without Model Y, ex-China Tesla shrunk by 19.9%

In the US, Model 3 sales fell by a whopping 42.7%

$TSLA $TSLAQ
Read 11 tweets
fly4dat Profile picture
4 Oct
1/ #Tesla bulls are cheering the 10th Chinese price cut this year, celebrating the "passing on cost savings to customers". Let's assume it's Musk's good heart the reason for the cuts, not #nodemand at current price levels*.

$TSLA $TSLAQ
2/ Price cuts >> total battery costs.

Now imagine for a second how utterly inefficient production must have been if there could be such cost savings.

cleantechnica.com/2020/08/21/elo…
4/ Now imagine if
a) price cuts are bigger than "efficiency gains", eating into the eterna 23% gross margin. If only 3% of the price cut eats into this, that's a 13% GM reduction.
b) relative margins stay at the eternal 23%, what do absolute margins do?
Read 4 tweets
fly4dat Profile picture
2 Oct
1/ #Tesla reported 124.1k M3Y deliveries in Q3. A year ago it was 79.6k, a growth of 44.5k. Without China, these #'s would be ~86.1 vs 72k, a growth of 14.1k.

But wait, that includes Model Y!

$TSLA $TSLAQ
2/ Y was sold in the US only.

Based on reliable sources, around 60% of US sales was MY. That leaves us with the 2nd worst M3 figure for the US 2018 Q2, besting only pandemic-influenced 20Q2 by a hair.
3/ $TSLA got a pass in Q2 because of COVID shutdowns. If that left a backlog (real, as orders couldn't have been filled, or implied, as many buyers could have delayed purchases), that means that even with MY, Tesla couldn't grow in the US.
Read 7 tweets
fly4dat Profile picture
30 Sep
1/ #Tesla has a European market share of 16% that's falling. At the same time, Norwegian market share is less than half, 7%.

Image
2/ Norway is the only developed BEV market in the world, with ~50% of new cars sold being BEVs. What could the reason be for such a significant difference? Image
3/ Norway used to be Tesla's #2 (since inception) then #3 (until 2018) worldwide market after the US, thanks to the subsidies (taxes, bus lane use, free parking, other perks).

#Tesla sales fell in NO, ex initial M3 deliveries.

Even 18Q3/4 were better, when no M3 was there. Image
Read 8 tweets
fly4dat Profile picture
21 Sep
weekly 🇪🇺 UPDATE

♣ID.3 already outselling #Tesla in NO🇳🇴
♦️Still close to 1k public inventory (poss. many more)
♠Very weak NL, NO, okay to good SP, IS, poss. strong DACH
♥VW gives details about its Blitzkrieg vs Tesla

🃏T not cooperating with Norwegian Police

Image
"What competition?" Norway🇳🇴 edition, vol Sep #3.

LUX: strongest SuX this year, still nowhere vs '19 let alone '18 levels. EQC and E-Tron SB take it home.

MID: despite poss. strongest M3 this year, YoY comps are sad and ID.3, Polestar, Hyundai & MG crushing it.

Image
Read 8 tweets

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