Thread by @StefSimanowitz

1 - The fact that the govt ignored SAGE's advice on #circuitbreaker lockdown doesn't come as a big surprise as SAGE has been increasingly sidelined since the setting up of the #JointBiosecurityCentre in July

The JBC is part of the "NHS" Test and Trace Service run by @didoharding

https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1310703032846475265

2 - The #JointBiosecurityCentre runs the govt's #COVID19 response

Set up in May, it was originally headed by Tom Hurd (MI6)

He was replaced by Clare Gardiner (GCHQ)

This suggests it sits within UK intelligence structures

Over the last 6 months, the JBC has released no minutes

3 - Whilst little is known about the staffing & membership of this body, sources suggest that there is no "centre"

Instead, they say, the #JBC is scattered across offices in Whitehall & beyond, including intelligence agencies & research institutes

See: gov.uk/government/gro…

4 - Whilst the importance of the work of the #JBC, bringing together data analysis & epidemiological expertise to ensure #COVID19 outbreaks are detected & brought under control is not in doubt, there concerns remain.

"It is in the shadows," says ex-@WHO director @GabrielScally.

5 - The central role of intelligence service's in the #JBC raises concerns over whether a counterterrorism model for #COVID19 could be an over-engineered distraction

Military contractor, #Palantir's role in running the UKs NHS data store, is also worrying

https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1310607600422133771

6 - A big question is the extent to which the setting-up of the #JointBiosecurityCentre increased political supervision of "the science"

What level of political control/scientific autonomy is there?

Will the #JBC be used as a counterweight to SAGE?

Are SAGE the next fall guy?

7 - Normally the govt wait months to publish SAGE minutes & then they upload them on gov.uk late on a Friday/Sat night

So why were the explosive 21st Sept SAGE minutes published just after the PM's #covidbriefing?

Did the govt have any control of this decision?

8 - If it WAS No.10's decision to release the minutes on Monday evening, might that suggest the govt wanted to publicly clash with SAGE?

But why?

Perhaps a split SAGE is seen as necessary if the govt are planning to go down an openly #HerdImmunity route.

https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1315946892434472960

9 - #HerdImmunity has always been the govt's strategy

They tried to float the idea in early March with the PM's #TakeItOnTheChin comments, confirmed on 12 March by @Peston's "senior No.10 source"

But "the public weren't ready" for it then, so they waited

https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1283928853052825600

10 - The public are still a long way from accepting #HerdImmunity, but perhaps this "battle" with SAGE & @Keir_Starmer might be the start of the next stage of a bigger plan

Vallance, Whitty Harries etc are probably members of the #JBC so the "faces of science" will stay the same

11 - Meanwhile in the US, the White House just embraced a declaration by a group of scientists arguing that authorities should allow the #coronavirus to spread among young healthy people while protecting the elderly & vulnerable

Is this pure coincidence?
nytimes.com/live/2020/10/1…

12 - The parallels between the UK & US are striking

Both have among the world's highest death rates, despite the fact that they were gifted a 3-week warning by Italy

Both admins took control of #COVID19 data at the same time

Both have digital health platforms run by #Palantir.