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12 Oct, 17 tweets, 14 min read
"I am not confident - & nor is anybody confident - that the Tier 3 proposals for the highest rates, if we did the absolute base case & nothing more, would be enough to get on top of it.” Whitty

Did the govt just announce a #COVID19 strategy that they are not confident will work?
Whitty goes on: “That’s why there is a lot of flexibility in the tier 3 level for local authorities, guided by the directors of public health, to actually go up that range so they can do significantly more than the base, b/c the base won’t be sufficient huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/local-lo…
After months of excluding
local & regional public health experts from outbreak management (centralising data & contracting testing to companies like Serco etc), No.10 now going to get local govts involved in deciding & enforcing restrictions
@doctorshaib👇
It is likely that - due to confusion around messaging & a draining of public trust in the govt & their scientists - ‘enforcement will be needed’

PM & Sunak both mentioned it

Marshals, fines, #COVIDIOT hotlines &
perhaps soldiers on our streets by Xmas.
"Modelling suggests that 14 days of significant reduction in transmission in Oct could put the epidemic back 28 days & could significantly reduce the prevalence of infection in Dec”

3 weeks ago SAGE called on govt to go much further than he has done today mirror.co.uk/news/politics/…
The SAGE minutes from 21 September reveal that they recommended a package of immediate measures including:

“Closure of all bars, restaurants, cafes, indoor gyms & personal services
(e.g. hairdressers)

All university & college teaching to be online unless absolutely essential”
SAGE also warned there could be up to 3,000 hospital admissions per day unless action is taken.

The minutes say that the tightening of “infection control measures in all hospitals & care homes should be seen as a priority if infections continue to grow.”
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
Back in June, SAGE minutes revealed that the govt KNEW on 25 February - a full month before lockdown - that without proper measures, #COVID19 would result in tens of thousands of lives & overwhelm the NHS ICU capacity.

And yet they did nothing.
Prof @JeremyFarrar says SAGE took the decision the UK should lockdown on 13 March & they “advised govt to impose a lockdown on 16 March”

Why the delay?

13/3 was a Friday

14/3 was @carriesymonds’ baby shower

16/3 was a Monday

Lockdown happened on 24/3
The delay to lockdown is just one of many govt #COVID19 scandals over the past 7 months. There was also:

The #CareHomeScandal
The #TestingScandal
The #AppScandal
The #LockdownFatigueScandal etc.

All these👆are part of the wider #HerdImmunityScandal.
As WHO head, @DrTedros, made clear today, #HerdImmunity is an “outcome” never a “strategy”

If it is being used as the strategy - both in the UK & the US - what is the bigger plan?

This thread👇offers some clues #COVID #coronavirus #palantir #PalantirPlan
The BBC’s @louiseminchin asks @RobertJenrick why the govt failed to follow SAGE’s advice 3 weeks ago

He claims:

“Well, we did take robust action at that time of you remember. That’s when we clarified the rule of six & introduced the 10pm pub curfew.”
This is not “robust action”

The same SAGE minutes state clearly that “curfews have minimal impact”

Indeed, it is likely that the govt’s 10pm curfew has increased #COVID19 transmission rather than reduced it as everyone spills out of pubs & bars & restaurants at the same time.
The govt ignored SAGE’s advice to:

1. introduce a ‘circuit-breaker’ lockdown

2. close pubs, restaurants & gyms

3. stop households mixing in each other’s homes

4. stop face-to-face teaching at universities & colleges

SAGE has been sidelined since July.
A similar thing happened with lockdown in March

SAGE minutes from 5 March - the first attended by Cummings - show SAGE advice & warnings: e.g. "sustained community transmission was underway” & need for "early measures" to protect vulnerable was IGNORED.
On 21 Sept - the same day as this SAGE meeting - @BorisJohnson & @RishiSunak were briefed by controversial anti-lockdown scientist Anders Tegnell & lockdown sceptics Prof Carl Heneghan & Prof Sunetra Gupta

Is managed, staggered #HerdImmunity the strategy?
dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8…
If the latest measures were about stemming #COVID19 spread, why aren't there tougher measures in Nottingham which has higher infection rates than Liverpool but is only T2?

Is this because their are less hospitalisations?

Is their goal just to prevent the NHS being overwhelmed?

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More from @StefSimanowitz

Stefan Simanowitz Profile picture
13 Oct
1 - The fact that the govt ignored SAGE's advice on #circuitbreaker lockdown doesn't come as a big surprise as SAGE has been increasingly sidelined since the setting up of the #JointBiosecurityCentre in July

The JBC is part of the "NHS" Test and Trace Service run by @didoharding
2 - The #JointBiosecurityCentre runs the govt's #COVID19 response

Set up in May, it was originally headed by Tom Hurd (MI6)

He was replaced by Clare Gardiner (GCHQ)

This suggests it sits within UK intelligence structures

Over the last 6 months, the JBC has released no minutes ImageImage
3 - Whilst little is known about the staffing & membership of this body, sources suggest that there is no "centre"

Instead, they say, the #JBC is scattered across offices in Whitehall & beyond, including intelligence agencies & research institutes

See: gov.uk/government/gro… ImageImage
Read 12 tweets
Stefan Simanowitz Profile picture
13 Oct
“Judge Barrett. Is it illegal to intimidate voters at the polls?” @amyklobuchar

“I can’t apply the law to hypothetical facts. I can’t answer questions like that”

Wow! #AmyConeyBarret refuses to acknowledge the fact that voter intimidation is illegal #ACB
Earlier today, Judge Barrett - Trump’s selection to replace #RBG in the Supreme Court - refused to say #DonaldTrump doesn't have the Constitutional power to unilaterally delay the election.

He does not have that power.
#ThisIsNotADrill
“And so by malice, stealth & brutishness a pattern is set. Less & less transparency. Less & less scrutiny. Less & less accountability. Until they’re entirely unleashed to bundle aside the truth & speak only their truths."
(Emerson Warner)
#AmyConeyBarrett
Read 5 tweets
Stefan Simanowitz Profile picture
11 Oct
1/ Is this the “smoking gun” of the #EducationScandal?

NHS Professionals - the organisation that supplies temporary staff to the NHS - “received some important training updates”

Staff are told they “should not escalate any #COVID19 cases who work or attend educational settings”
2/. This document appears to give clear instructions to Tier 2 (national) contract tracers not to pass on single positive #COVID19 cases in schools, colleges & universities to Local Health Protection Teams.

I’m no expert, but surely this is not good outbreak management advice?
3/ This would presumably mean having to wait for a #COVID19 outbreak before the Local Health Protection Teams even knew there has been a positive test in the school or university

In Scotland, by contrast, there are daily updates in local areas citing individual cases in schools
Read 10 tweets
Stefan Simanowitz Profile picture
6 Oct
1. “Why were we faffing around with Excel when the scientists were telling us not to?" @skynewsniall

“The system was designed in conjunction with our scientists... at PHE & the JBC they're all scientists who have been involved in this." @RishiSunak
2. “Scientists” didn’t decide on using Excel. It’s a reporting/admin tool

The scientists would have told IT what info the database needed to hold. The IT team should have designed a database fit for that purpose rather than using an old version of Excel.
3. Sunak is also allowed to claim: “We are now testing 250,000 people a day”

That’s the figure for tests “processed” NOT people tested

When @MattHancock claimed 226,000 people were being tested on 21/9, the actual figure turned out to be around 82,000.
Read 5 tweets
Stefan Simanowitz Profile picture
5 Oct
1/. Ten days ago, @MattHancock launched "#GenomeUK: the future of healthcare", a major new 10-year genomic healthcare strategy

Happening on a Saturday without much fanfare, it didn't get much news coverage beyond the biomedical press

And yet this is big.
2/. The launch of a new decade-long national health strategy should be big news at anytime, but coming amidst the #COVID19 pandemic & with the potential to shift genome research to the heart of No.10's programme for govt, it is of particular significance.
3/. Genome research has HUGE potential social & cost benefits, not just in medicine

In the right hands & with the appropriate checks & balances it is very important but, when it is being rolled out by this govt in conjunction with companies like #Palantir, scrutiny is needed.
Read 7 tweets
Stefan Simanowitz Profile picture
5 Oct
Wow!

"The UK offers companies system-wide collaborative working, a dynamic regulatory system, active life sciences & increasingly expanding access to rich longitudinal data from the NHS’s 65 million patients"

A Dept of Trade / NHS "invitation to invest" directory-cms-public.s3.amazonaws.com/documents/Inve… ImageImageImageImage
Last week, the govt launched #GenomeUK.

The NHS is already implementing whole-genome sequencing as routine care in order to sequence 500,000 whole genomes by 2024.

NHS Wales just introduced a programme to sequence the genomes of critically ill newborns.
https://t.co/vhpoeUHxFu
If you don’t want your data shared with companies for research, you should have opted out before 30 Sept

You can still opt out but even if you do, they can still share your data if they anonymise it

The fear is that data dumps may have already been done.
nhs.uk/your-nhs-data-…
Read 4 tweets

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